Welcome in to another episode of our College Basketball Pick Show. It’s a Tuesday, and that means you get this show. But starting next week, it’ll move to Wednesday as we gear up for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. We may keep it there to make sure we can capitalize on all the plays happening on Thursday and Friday.
The first round is next week. Unbelievable. Then we get the Sweet 16, the Final Four, and of course, the National Championship game. Stay tuned – there’s a lot of basketball to bet over the next month.
I’ve got three bets on conference tournament final games for you on today’s program, including a Hard Rock Bet of the Day. Let’s get into it.
Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara – Santa Clara +7.5
This was supposed to be Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s, but Santa Clara had other plans. They come in as underdogs again, and the number has already moved from 6.5 to 7.5.
Santa Clara has been bombing threes in this tournament. They won outright as dogs last night, and they’re dogs again here.
I didn’t love what I saw from Gonzaga last night against Oregon State. They didn’t cover 18.5, and honestly, it wasn’t close. Maybe they were just going through the motions, but Santa Clara has real motivation. Gonzaga is already in the NCAA Tournament. Santa Clara is not.
The Broncos lost both regular-season meetings against the Zags but split against the spread. According to KenPom, this projects as a six-point Gonzaga win – not a blowout.
Santa Clara is 21st in offensive efficiency and gets nearly 37% of its scoring from beyond the arc. This game comes down to three-point shooting. If Santa Clara hits shots, they can hang around.
Once we’re past two possessions, I think the number is too big. The public sees Gonzaga and bets Gonzaga. I fell into that trap yesterday. I’m coming back with the dog tonight.
Pick: Santa Clara +7.5
Wright State vs. Detroit Mercy – Wright State -4.5
Detroit Mercy beat Robert Morris 70-64, but I wasn’t impressed. Wright State already lost to Detroit Mercy once this year, 77-74 on the road. I think that plays into this game – motivation matters.
KenPom projects Wright State by four. Detroit Mercy ranks 250th in defensive efficiency and 283rd in two-point defense. That’s a problem against a Wright State offense that ranks 52nd in effective field goal percentage and 43rd in three-point shooting.
Yes, the total is 151.5 and some people like the under because of tired legs, but the Horizon League is known for offense. Wright State is 8-2 in its last 10 against Detroit Mercy. This is the lowest number we’ve seen for Wright State as a favorite in this matchup.
I think Detroit Mercy’s run ends here.
Pick: Wright State -4.5
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Merrimack vs. Siena – Over 124.5
Full disclosure: I’m from Andover, Massachusetts. Merrimack is in North Andover. My brother pitched there. I grew up playing basketball in that gym. I went to Merrimack basketball camp every summer. So yes, I know this program well.
Merrimack is 19-13-1 ATS but just 1-4 ATS in their last five as numbers have gotten inflated. Siena, meanwhile, is 19-4 ATS and has covered three straight.
Merrimack has beaten Siena twice this year and covered both times. If you want to lay 3.5 with Merrimack, I get it – I’ll personally bet Merrimack. But I’m not making it the official play.
Instead, I’m looking at the total of 124.5.
Both teams play slow – extremely slow. Siena ranks 337th in average possession length, Merrimack 297th. On paper, you’d expect an under. But tournament finals can get weird. Tired legs can mean missed closeouts. Late fouls extend games. Free throws add up.
KenPom projects a 67-65 game – that’s 132 total points, well above this number. We just need both teams in the 60s.
I don’t think this flies over, but I do think it sneaks over.
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Merrimack vs. Siena Over 124.5
Final Card
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Merrimack vs. Siena Over 124.5
- Santa Clara +7.5
- Wright State -4.5
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