Nick Wright’s Picks: Five Bets for NFL Divisional Round & CFP National Championship

This is my favorite NFL weekend of the year. Fewer games, better teams, and no margin for error. Every matchup matters, and every mistake gets punished.

Last week was frustrating. The results weren’t there for me even though I still believe the logic behind most of the picks was sound. Damonza had the better week and now has the edge heading into the rest of the postseason, which makes this slate even more important. We agree on a lot this week, which makes it harder to make up ground, but this is the board we’re playing.

As always, all lines are from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Bills (+1) at Broncos

This is my favorite pick of the weekend.

I understand the concerns about Buffalo being short-handed at wide receiver, but I actually think it forces them into what they do best. With limited options outside, they are going to lean into 12 personnel, and that’s where this offense has thrived all season. They can run the ball, the offensive line is excellent, and the pass defense remains the strength of the team.

Josh Allen is the best quarterback left in the playoffs, and the altitude in Denver does not concern me at all. He played his college home games in Wyoming, at a higher elevation. That is not going to affect him.

I also think we’ve overstated how vulnerable Buffalo really is. They have come back from double-digit deficits multiple times this year. If they fall behind, they have a path forward. If Denver falls behind, I don’t see one.

The Broncos benefited from the second-easiest schedule in the league, and this is a significant step up in class. I don’t think this ends up being close. I think Buffalo controls the game, and I think Bo Nix makes a costly mistake at some point.

49ers (+7) at Seahawks

I expect Seattle to win this game, but I do not expect them to win it comfortably.

Seattle is going to be conservative offensively. They are not going to take unnecessary risks, and they are going to prioritize ball control. That kind of game script naturally compresses margins.

We’ve already seen this matchup twice. Even with San Francisco’s defense banged up, Seattle scored only 13 points in both games. There is something about this matchup that limits Seattle’s offense.

San Francisco is going to try to shorten the game, run the ball, and limit possessions. That makes seven points too many. I don’t think the 49ers win, but I think they stay within the number in a low-scoring, grind-it-out game.

Texans at Patriots (-3)

New England is at home with the far better quarterback.

Houston’s defense is excellent, but the Patriots just faced an elite defensive unit last week and are better prepared for this challenge. Drake Maye also adds an element Houston didn’t have to deal with previously – he can beat you with his legs, and that matters in playoff games.

The Texans are undefeated when they score 20+ points this season, but I don’t think they get there here. This feels like a controlled, disciplined performance from New England rather than anything explosive.

There are injury concerns on both sides, but they largely cancel out. I trust the Patriots more late, and I trust them to win this game by a field goal or slightly more.

Rams (-4) at Bears

I do not trust the Bears defense to slow down the Rams at all.

I know it’s freezing. I know there are trends about home underdogs, dome teams outdoors, and weather games in Chicago. I’m going against all of that. Matt Stafford spent more than a decade playing in the NFC North. He has played in Chicago and Green Bay countless times. The cold-weather narratives around him are mostly fake.

The Rams offense is simply too good, and the Bears losing their starting left tackle is a massive problem in this matchup. This has been a great season for Chicago and a clear step in the right direction, but I think it ends here.

I expect the Rams to score early and keep the pressure on throughout the game.

Bonus CFP Pick: Miami (+8.5) vs Indiana

I’m taking Miami plus the points in Monday’s CFP National Championship, and I’m also taking Miami on the moneyline.

Indiana has been dominant in this playoff, no question. But I think people are overlooking how these teams stack up relative to common opponents. Indiana went toe-to-toe with Ohio State and won a close game. Miami played Ohio State later and controlled the game wire to wire.

The idea that Indiana is in a completely different weight class than Miami right now doesn’t sit right with me. Indiana has looked better in the playoff, but getting more than a touchdown in Miami is too many points.

If this game is close late, I like Miami’s chances.

Damonza’s Teaser

This week, Damonza’s rolling with a three-team, 8-point teaser at +100:

• Seahawks teased to +1
• Texans teased to +11
• Bills teased to +9

I like all of it. The only knock is teasing Seattle through zero, which keeps it from being a clean A, but it’s still strong.

Touchdown Genie

I’m going big this week. Here’s my three-leg touchdown genie, coming in at +704:

• Josh Allen
• Davante Adams
• Puka Nacua

Josh Allen runs one in. The Rams score at will, and Puka and Davante both find the end zone.

Nick Wright’s Picks for the Divisional Round & CFP National Championship

In summary, here’s what I’m on:

• Bills +1
• 49ers +7
• Patriots -3
• Rams -4
• Miami +8.5 (and ML)

Best weekend of football all year. Enjoy it. We’ll talk Tuesday.