Sharp or Square: What the Board Tells Us for NFL Week 10

The season’s flying by – the clocks have turned, the air’s colder, and the football actually matters now. As we hit Week 10, we’re shaking off last week’s worst showing of the year (1-4, thanks for asking) and trying to find value without overcorrecting. Favorites buried us last week, so we’re hunting edges and redemption.

Below are our early leans, gut calls, and sharp angles for every matchup on the board: the games we’ve been sweating, studying, and sometimes eating midnight pasta over.

Simon Says: Broncos (-8.5) vs Raiders

This is a classic get-right spot for Denver. The Raiders come in after an overtime war and could be in full sell mode by kickoff. Short-week divisional underdogs usually tempt us, but not this time – the Broncos’ defense should dominate, and the matchup screams blowout.

Falcons (+5) vs Colts (Berlin, Germany)

Atlanta was 1-for-10 on third downs last week, but Drake London changed their whole offense. Michael Penix Jr. is still too inconsistent to trust, but the Falcons’ defense plays opportunistically enough to keep this neutral-site game close. At six or better, we’d take Atlanta.

Dolphins (+9.5) vs Bills

Every sharp bone in our bodies says to take Miami, even if we don’t want to. The Bills can’t stop the run, and this is an Achane showcase spot. The number’s inflated, and the Dolphins off extra rest should hang around long enough to cover.

Giants (+3.5) at Bears

The Bears’ defense keeps making average quarterbacks look elite, and this feels like another setup for that. Jaxson Dart can exploit soft coverage underneath, and his mobility gives them a path. With the hook, the G-Men have the edge here.

Panthers (-5) vs Saints

We’ve moved from the “Love the Saints” phase to the “Love the Panthers” phase of the season. Carolina runs the ball better, plays tougher at home, and Bryce Young’s growing into a gamer. Unless the number climbs above five, this one leans Carolina.

Jets (-1.5) vs Browns

Grab this before it moves. The Browns’ offense is hopeless without a quarterback, and their defense isn’t the same away from home. The Jets’ speed on turf creates just enough explosive play potential to tilt the matchup.

Texans (-1) vs Jaguars

It’s tough backing a team with a backup QB, but it’s even tougher trusting Trevor Lawrence on the road off a big win. Houston’s defense forces turnovers and stays in every game. If the Texans flip to a home underdog, we’re buyers.

Chad’s Choice: Buccaneers (-2.5) vs Patriots

This line is short, and we love it. Baker Mayfield was Drake May before Drake Maye – the surprising MVP dark horse nobody saw coming. Tampa’s healthier, rested, and a step up in class for New England. This is a perfect home favorite bounce-back spot.

Ravens (-4) at Vikings

Lamar Jackson owns NFC defenses, and the Vikings’ blitz-heavy scheme is tailor-made for him to torch. Baltimore’s defense is rounding into form again, and this number should climb. The early three was a gift; even at four, the Ravens are the side.

Lions (-8.5) at Commanders

Detroit burned us last week, but this is a bounce-back spot. Washington’s defense is atrocious, their head coach looks lost, and the Lions’ offense should do whatever it wants. The number’s big, but so is the mismatch.

49ers (+3.5) vs Rams

San Francisco’s defense is decimated, and that’s a problem against Matthew Stafford. Still, this line seems wrong – a half-point swing toward a shorthanded team suggests sharp money lurking. Ugly dog, but that’s often where value hides.

Steelers (+3) at Chargers

The Chargers can’t protect Justin Herbert, and that’s fatal against T.J. Watt and company. Pittsburgh lives off turnover luck and pressure, and this matchup gives them both. Anything over +3 makes the Steelers worth the play.

Packers (-2.5) vs Eagles

This is the buy-low, sell-high game of the week. Everyone loves the Eagles after their trade splurge, but Green Bay’s better than it’s looked. The line stinks – which is why the sharp side is the Packers at home.

Sharp or Square Picks for Week 10

Simon Says: Broncos -8.5
Chad’s Choice: Buccaneers -2.5
Additional Leans: Jets, Panthers, Ravens, Giants, Packers.

Final Thoughts

Football’s cruel. You can handicap perfectly and still lose to a backup quarterback. Week 10’s lines are tricky, the public’s still chasing favorites, and value’s hiding in the ugly spots.

If this season’s taught us anything, it’s that the best bets are the ones that make you uncomfortable – and that nothing warms a cold Sunday like a sharp side that cashes.