Sharp or Square: Week 9 Recap, Early Week 10 Leans

This week felt like walking blindfolded through a minefield we mapped ourselves. We said it was a trap week. We saw the warning signs. And still, we charged right into it, favorites blazing – and got smoked. One win, four losses. The Falcons saved us from a goose egg, but just barely.

Falcons at Patriots: The Lone Bright Spot

Let’s start with the one thing that actually worked: Atlanta +5.5 at New England. The Falcons were down 21-7 in the first half, and it felt like we were watching a slow-motion car crash. But as we always preach: bet the number, not the narrative.

Michael Penix made mistakes, Drake Maye looked like a star for stretches, and we got the fluke we needed: a freak fumble turned touchdown that flipped the script. Drake London’s three touchdowns were the difference, proving why you play the math and not your emotions.

We didn’t cap it perfectly, but luck counts the same on the payout screen.

Chargers and Lions: Our Public Pain Parade

We knew the Chargers were the trap of traps – the team that ruins us every time we fall for them. And yet, there we were, holding a Chargers -9.5 ticket and pretending history doesn’t repeat itself.

The defense allowed six points all day, but Justin Herbert’s pick-six and a punt return TD buried us early. They should’ve covered, even dominated, and still found a way to lose on the number. Herbert played tough, but between the injuries and Joe Alt being carted off, the Chargers did what they do best: disappoint.

Detroit wasn’t much better. We loved the Lions coming off extra rest, getting defensive reinforcements, facing a rookie QB in JJ McCarthy. And what did we get? A Lions team that couldn’t convert a third down, a quarterback running for his life, and a defense that handed the Vikings free first downs on penalties. It was a total dud from the opening drive. Detroit might still be a good team, but right now, they’re a bettor’s nightmare: consistent only in inconsistency.

Broncos at Texans: Great Defense, Terrible Execution

Our Brass Balls pick – Texans -1.5 over Denver – looked like the right side until CJ Stroud left with an injury. The Houston defense was elite, bottling Bo Nix and forcing mistakes. But you can’t win in this league kicking field goals from inside the 10-yard line all afternoon.

Six of eight drives ended inside the Broncos’ 35-yard line. That’s the definition of offensive malpractice. Simon summed it up: “Injuries are part of the game. But that was just stupid football.”

Nick Caley, Texans OC, gets our “Shame, Shame, Shame” of the week. No imagination, no adjustments, no clue.

Chiefs at Bills: A Bad Read on Greatness

We leaned hard into Chiefs -1.5, thinking Patrick Mahomes would do what Patrick Mahomes does. Instead, it was the Josh Allen show. He was surgical in the first half: 15-of-17, 176 yards, and in total control.

Mahomes, meanwhile, couldn’t find rhythm. For the first time in his career, he dipped below 50% completions in a game. The Chiefs’ late surge teased us, but this was never theirs. Sometimes, you tip your cap. Allen was the better QB, Joe Brady’s offense was balanced, and we got outclassed.

What We Learned the Hard Way

When you do this every week – five games, no take-backs – your biggest goal is to avoid the 1–4. We didn’t. But the truth? We could’ve been 0-5. The Falcons’ miracle cover spared us from full humiliation.

We ignored our own advice and bet favorites in a trap week. We loved those plays since Tuesday, and instead of pivoting, we doubled down. That’s not bad luck – that’s bad discipline.

Simon’s self-inflicted “Shame” is well-earned. When the sportsbook is packed with public money and you’re on the same sides as everyone else, you’ve already lost the edge. We talk about fading the crowd, then spend the weekend sitting next to them. That’s how you get 1-4.

Sharp or Square Picks: Early Week 10 Leans

You can’t dwell. You learn, you adjust, you move on. Early leans for next week? We’re eyeing Ravens -3 vs. Minnesota, Lions -3 vs. Washington, and Pittsburgh +3.5 vs. the Chargers – a team that might not be able to block a pop-up blitz at this point.

We’ll also be watching the Rams closely. They were one of the few big favorites who delivered, hammering New Orleans and reminding everyone that Stafford, McVay, and Puka still matter. Don’t be surprised if we ride with them next weekend.