Every NFL season has its weird weeks – the ones that make even the most disciplined bettors second-guess themselves. Week 8 is one of those. Half the spreads have moved by half a point or less thus far, and yet there’s still plenty of opportunity if you know where to look.
Ravens (-6) vs Bears: Brass Balls Bet of the Week
Our Brass Balls Bet – the one that requires both courage and conviction – goes to the Baltimore Ravens -6 against the Bears. The line dropped from 6.5 to 6 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, mostly because of uncertainty around Lamar Jackson’s status. But for us, this play is about trusting a proven pattern.
Since 2003, teams that have won 20% or fewer of their games and are favored over a team with a winning record are 56% against the spread. When those favorites are laying three points or more, the number jumps to nearly 68%. Baltimore also tends to bounce back well after a bye under John Harbaugh, who is 10-7 ATS in these spots.
The Bears have covered four straight, and the pros love their run game. But that’s exactly why we’re fading them. The market’s overcorrecting for Chicago’s recent success. Assuming Lamar plays – even if limited – this feels like a classic “buy low” Ravens spot.
Giants (+7.5) at Eagles
If we had to pick one underdog with staying power, it’s the New York Giants +7.5 against Philadelphia. Divisional games at that number almost always carry hidden value, and the Eagles haven’t proven they can put together two consistent halves of football.
Yes, the Giants are banged up and young under center. But that number is simply too inflated. Philly’s offensive line injuries and tendency to coast in the second half make the Giants live underdogs. As we said on the show – the Giants are scary, but the number is scarier if you pass it up.
Texans (-1) vs 49ers
Call us crazy, but Houston is one of our favorite “hold your nose” bets of the week. Everyone wants to bet the 49ers. They’re talented, well-coached, and public darlings. But the market hasn’t caught up to their inconsistency after wins.
Since late 2023, San Francisco is just 1-13 ATS following a straight-up victory – failing to cover by 7.5 points on average. Add in key defensive injuries and a Houston team looking for redemption after a tough loss, and the Texans are exactly the kind of undervalued team we like to back.
CJ Stroud tends to shine when he isn’t pressured heavily, and with the 49ers’ pass rush compromised, this feels like a good get-right spot for Houston.
Patriots (-7) vs Browns
Sometimes betting is about pattern recognition, not perfection. The Patriots -7 against the Browns fits that bill. The Browns come into this one riding high off a big win, so this sets up as a sell-high moment.
One stat that doesn’t bode well for the Pats? Teams on a four-game ATS and SU win streak that missed the playoffs the year before are just 14-26-1 against the spread in this spot. Since 2022, that number drops to 1-14 ATS.
The bright side? New England is 5-0 ATS this season in games in which they’ve led by 7 or more at any point. If they get out to an early lead, how do the Browns come back? It’s a bad spot for Dillon Gabriel and Cleveland’s home/road splits are jarring.
Broncos (-3) vs Cowboys
It’s not fun. It’s not sexy. But sometimes you have to bet on Bo Nix. The Broncos -3 against Dallas isn’t about style points – it’s about matchup flaws. Denver’s front seven can create pressure on Dak Prescott, and historically, this is a spot where the Cowboys stumble.
Yes, the Broncos make mistakes. But they’re gritty and situationally smart under Sean Payton. If they start fast, they can control the tempo and frustrate Dallas’ offensive rhythm. We’ll take the ugly side.
Steelers (+3) vs Packers (Sunday Night Football)
We’ve made a living trusting Mike Tomlin as a home dog – and we’re doing it again. The Steelers +3 at home against Green Bay is one of our most confident plays for Week 8.
After allowing 30+ points, Tomlin’s teams are 29-12-1 ATS, including 21-8-1 at home. The Steelers tend to respond to embarrassment, and this is exactly that spot.
Green Bay’s offense still looks disconnected, and even though the public loves the Packers’ talent, this is a value-based bet on coaching, defense, and resilience.
Sharp or Square Picks: Week 8
Our strongest leans for Week 8: Ravens -6, Giants +7.5, Texans -1, Patriots -7, and Steelers +3, with an eye on the Broncos -3 and yes, the Jets +6.5.
We always say it: if a bet feels disgusting, you’re probably on the right side. Week 8 offers no easy answers – just numbers begging to be questioned.
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