In sports betting, the “favorite” is the side that oddsmakers expect to win the game. Sportsbooks determine which side is the favorite by weighing player matchups, recent performances, injuries and other factors such as weather and game location (home, away, or neutral). When you see a team listed as the favorite in a matchup, it means the odds are saying that team has a higher probability of winning the game than their opponent.
How do you know
which team is the favorite?
At Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, favorites are indicated on our odds boards so you can easily spot them while scrolling through the slate of games for your preferred sport.
You can instantly identify the favorite by looking for negative odds, which always appear with a minus sign (-). The underdog, on the other hand, will be accompanied by positive odds with a plus sign (+). This system makes it incredibly easy to tell which team oddsmakers expect to win.
For example, if you see the San Francisco 49ers listed at -180 and the Jacksonville Jaguars posted at +150 on the moneyline, the 49ers are the favorite. The negative number (-180) tells you they’re expected to win according to oddsmakers, while the plus number (+150) indicates the Jaguars are the underdog in the matchup.
Understanding the odds of betting favorites
Simply put, negative odds represent how much you would need to bet in order to win $100. When you see -150, it means you’d need to wager $150 to earn $100 in profit if your bet wins. The math scales up and down proportionally: a $75 bet at -150 odds would return $50 in profit, while a $300 bet would earn $150 in profit.
On the other end of the spectrum, positive odds represent the profit you stand to make on a $100 bet. At +140 odds, a $100 wager would return $140 in profit. Underdogs offer higher payouts than favorites because they’re less likely to win according to the oddsmakers.
Again, you don’t need to bet exactly $100 on every bet to understand this system. A $50 bet at +140 would earn $70 in profit, while a $10 bet would return $14. The key here is that plus odds always indicate the underdog and offer larger returns on any successful bets.
Another helpful way to think about odds is in terms of implied probability, which is a fancy way of saying the percent chance a team needs to win to justify the price of the odds. At -180 in the 49ers vs Jaguars example, the implied probability of the 49ers winning is 64.3%; if you determine San Francisco’s chances of winning are likely higher, say 70%, then this would be a solid spot to bet on the favorite.
At +150, the implied odds of the Jaguars winning is 40%; if you consider all the stats and data at your disposal and deem the matchup closer to a 50% coinflip, then betting on Jacksonville as a +150 underdog would provide some value.
Types of betting favorites
There are two main types of favorites that you’ll find offered across all major sports: moneyline favorites and point spread favorites.
Moneyline favorites
Moneyline favorites make for one of the simplest bets: you’re wagering on who you think will win the game, period. The Philadelphia Eagles (-200 moneyline favorites, pictured above) just need to win their game against the Buccaneers for your bet to cash. It doesn’t matter if it’s by a single point or even in overtime: a win is a win.
Moneyline betting works best when you’re confident about the winner but unsure about their exact margin of victory.
Point spread favorites
Point spread favorites, on the other hand, must win by more than the set number of points outlined by the oddsmakers. Since the Eagles are favored by 3.5 points over the Bucs, they’ll need to win by at least 4 points for any spread bets to cash.
This concept helps level the playing field between mismatched teams. Even if everyone expects the favorite to win, the spread makes you consider whether they’ll win big enough to cover the number.
Puck line and run line favorites
Puck line bets and run line bets are hockey and baseball’s version of point spread betting. Since hockey and baseball are both relatively low-scoring sports compared to football or basketball, favorites on the puck line and run line are almost always set at -1.5. In some cases, a mismatch will be large enough where the favorite is set at -2.5, but generally speaking most NHL puck lines and MLB run lines will be posted at -1.5.
If the Tampa Bay Lightning are playing the Florida Panthers and Florida is the puck line favorite (-1.5), they would need to win by 2 or more goals for any bets to be successful. As the puck line underdogs, the Lightning would be listed at +1.5, meaning if they lost by fewer than two goals or won the game outright, bets on Tampa Bay would cash.
When betting favorites makes sense
Betting favorites isn’t just about following the crowd or wagering on a team because they are “supposed to win.” Betting favorites makes the most sense when you find teams that offer good value relative to their true chances of winning. Additionally, remember that just because a team is heavily favored doesn’t mean they are going to win the game. This is where implied probability can be your guide.
Let’s say Green Bay is a -450 favorite over Minnesota. The line is suggesting that the Packers have an 81.82% chance of winning the game. Given that you’d have to wager $450 to win $100 in profit, if you believe the Packers have even a slightly lower chance of winning than 81%, you shouldn’t make that bet.
That’s why it’s often easier to find value on favorites in the -120 to -150 range. The implied probability in these closer matchups is between 55-60%, so if you’ve got a good read on a -140 favorite that you believe has a 65% chance of winning (true odds of -186), then you’ve found a favorite that makes a lot of sense to bet on!
Betting on favorites at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook
Favorites are a huge part of every betting slate, from NFL Sundays to NBA doubleheaders. If you know how to read odds and calculate implied probability to discern whether the price of the favorite is worth it, then you’re more than ready to begin placing some bets!
Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook’s top-rated mobile app makes it seamless to track down a variety of favorites, whether you’re interested in betting the moneyline or the point spread.
With features like boosted odds on select favorites, weekly Legendary Reward Drops, and Unity Points that extend into Hard Rock Hotels, Cafes and Casinos, every single wager placed at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook brings even more value to the table.
Favorites aren’t always a safe bet, but you can make them calculated plays. By understanding how favorites work, you’ll know when to back them and when to take a pass.
FAQ about favorites in sports betting
Still have some questions about favorites in sports betting? We’ve covered a few of the more common ones down below:
What does it mean to bet on the favorite?
Betting on the favorite means you’re wagering on the team or side that is expected to win, as determined by the oddsmakers.
Why do betting odds sometimes change before the game starts?
Odds don’t stay locked in once they’re set. Lines can and will move as the market reacts to betting volume or breaking news.
Is it better to bet favorites on the moneyline or the spread?
It depends on your risk appetite and desire for value. Moneyline favorites just need to win, but the payout is smaller and you’re risking a larger stake. Spread favorites, on the other hand, have to cover the number for a bigger return.
If you believe a team will win comfortably, betting on the point spread is probably your best bet. If you’re less sure of the margin of victory and are comfortable paying a higher price, the moneyline is the way to go.
Can you parlay multiple favorites for a bigger payout?
Yes. Placing parlay bets with multiple favorites can increase your wager’s payout, but keep in mind that every leg must hit in order for the bet to win.
Where can I bet on favorites with Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook?
Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook is currently available in a number of states across the map, all of which have access to a loaded menu of betting options. These states include:
