An underdog is a team or player expected to lose, according to oddsmakers (in this case, Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook’s internal trading team). This means underdogs have a lower chance of winning based on factors like recent performance, injuries and overall team strength. You can spot underdogs by looking for positive (or plus) odds, which always start with a plus sign (+).
If you’ve ever watched the movie Rudy or heard the story of David vs Goliath, you already know what an underdog is. And if you’re betting on underdogs, you’re hoping they show the same perseverance, toughness and never-quit attitudes of Rudy and David while pursuing your winning wager!
Let’s breakdown everything you need to know about betting underdogs.
What Is An Underdog?
Simply put, the underdog is the team that isn’t supposed to win. The betting odds are against them, and that will be reflected in the payout if you successfully back one. Correctly identifying the underdog will look different based on the type of wager you intend to make. Let’s take a look at some examples. To the right we’ve set up an odds board where we’ve isolated the underdog in a few specific matchups.
In the Giants vs Cowboys matchup, the Giants are the point spread underdogs at +6.5. If the Giants kick a field-goal with a minute left in a 24-17 game and it ends as a 24-20 Cowboys win, the underdogs have “covered” the spread and won the bet. However, if the Cowboys block the FG and the game ends 24-17, the underdog Giants will have lost by more than the spread, thus losing the bet.
In the moneyline underdog example, the Red Sox are the underdog at +140. If Alex Bregman hits a game-winning walk off home run and the Sox win 3-2 in extra innings, bettors who wagered $100 at +140 would get paid $240, which is $140 in profit.
| Underdog | Favorite | Bet Type |
|---|---|---|
| GIANTS (+6.5) | COWBOYS (-6.5) | POINT SPREAD |
| RED SOX (+140) | BLUE JAYS (-160) | MONEYLINE |
| KINGS (+1.5) | RANGERS (-1.5) | PUCK LINE |
Moneyline Underdogs vs Favorites
Moneyline betting is the simplest form of sports wagering. You’re just picking which team will win the game outright, regardless of the final score margin. This makes it entertaining to bet on underdogs when you think they have a real chance to win. As it is with Rudy and David’s stories, it can be fun to root for the underdog.
Let’s say the Tampa Bay Bucs are +200 underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles at -250. If you bet $100 on the Bucs and they win, you’d collect $200 in profit plus your original $100 back ($300 total). A winning $100 bet on the favored Eagles would return a $140 payout, with $40 in total profit.
The table below illustrates the payout differences on $100 bets on moneyline underdogs vs the betting favorite:
| BET AMOUNT | MONEYLINE ODDS | TOTAL WINNING PAYOUT | TOTAL WINNING PROFIT |
|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | TB Bucs +200 | $300 | $200 |
| $100 | PHI Eagles -250 | $140 | $40 |
What Are Point Spread Underdogs
Point spread betting levels the playing field by giving the underdog a head start in points. This means the underdog doesn’t have to win the game outright, they just need to lose by fewer points than predicted.
When you see a spread like Golden State Warriors -5 vs New York Knicks +5, the Knicks are getting 5 points before the game even starts. If GS wins 105-101, the Knicks still cover the spread because they lost by only 4 points, which is less than the 5-point spread.
Spread betting creates more balanced wagering opportunities for the underdog. Even when one team is clearly better, the spread can make the underdog an attractive bet. You’re essentially betting that the game will be closer than expected.
When Do Underdogs Offer Real Value?
Smart bettors know that not all underdogs are created equal. Certain situations make underdog bets more attractive and potentially profitable. Recognizing these spots can significantly improve your betting success.
- Divisional rivalries often produce closer games than the NFL odds suggest. Teams that play each other twice a year know each other’s strengths and weaknesses intimately.
- Home underdogs deserve special attention in your betting strategy. Playing at home provides real advantages: familiar surroundings, supportive crowds and no travel fatigue. When a decent team is getting points at home, they often represent excellent value.
- Teams with recent momentum shifts can also offer underdog value. Maybe key players are returning from injury, or the team has won several games in a row. The betting public and oddsmakers usually bake these considerations into their odds, but sometimes if you act quickly, you can get good value on early lines..
- Weather conditions can create underdog opportunities in outdoor sports. Heavy rain, snow, or strong winds can neutralize talent advantages and make games more unpredictable (and fun, everybody loves a snow bowl football game)
Find Underdog Bets on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook
Hard Rock Bet makes finding underdog opportunities straightforward with our user-friendly interface. You can quickly scan through different sports and identify underdogs by looking for those plus odds across all betting markets.
All bets, including underdog bets contribute to the Legendary Reward Drops program, where you earn Level Credits with every wager. The more you play, the better your weekly rewards become. This loyalty program adds extra value to your underdog betting strategy over time.
The mobile betting app lets you track line movements and spot when underdog odds are getting better. If you like a particular underdog, you can monitor their odds throughout the week and place your bet when the price is most favorable.
Live Betting the Underdog
Live betting opens up even more underdog opportunities during games. If a favored team falls behind early, their live odds might shift to underdog status, creating value betting situations you can capitalize on in real time. From a betting perspective, the underdog can change quickly based on what happens in the game.
Frequently Asked Questions About Betting Underdogs
Let’s dig in to some FAQs relating to sports betting and ‘underdogs’.
Can underdogs cover the spread even if they lose the game?
Absolutely. If the underdog loses by fewer points than the spread indicates, your bet cashes even if they don’t pull off the outright win.
How do line movements impact underdog value?
When the odds on an underdog shift higher, you can snag a bigger payout if you time your bet right. Watch those line moves for prime opportunities.
Are there specific sports where underdog bets hit more often?
Sports with lower scoring and more randomness often see underdogs win outright more than in high-scoring sports, making baseball betting particularly attractive for underdog strategies. NHL hockey is another sport where underdogs come through fairly often, albeit at odds that reflect the increased randomness of the sport.
What's the best way to spot a "live" underdog during live betting?
Look for underdogs who start strong or force early mistakes. If momentum swings, live odds can flip fast and deliver serious value.
