Yankees vs. Rays Predictions, Picks & Odds for Monday’s AL East Showdown

The top two teams in the AL East meet for the third time this season as the New York Yankees (49-40) travel to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (52-35) in the opener of a four-game series Monday night at Tropicana Field. The Rays own a 4-1 edge in the season series after sweeping the Yankees in three games at home in April and then taking one of two games in New York in May after one was postponed due to weather.

The Yankees enter Monday with the second-best record in the American League behind only the Rays, but they have fallen into a rough stretch as captain Aaron Judge remains sidelined with a rib injury. New York has lost nine of its last 10 games and is just 4-13 since a 5-1 loss to the White Sox on June 18.

The Rays endured a rough stretch of their own for about a month but have since turned things around to climb into first place in the AL East and claim the best record in the American League. Despite dropping two straight games to Houston over the weekend and losing that series, Tampa Bay has won nine of its last 11 games and will look to continue its success against New York beginning Monday night.

Griffin Jax is scheduled to make his 13th start of the season as the converted reliever continues his role in the Rays’ rotation. The Yankees will counter with young right-hander Cam Schlittler, who owns a 2.08 ERA and is looking to bounce back from the worst start of his season – and arguably his young career.

Yankees vs. Rays Current Odds

Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook lists Monday’s series opener as a close matchup, with the Rays favored on the moneyline at home while the Yankees are favored on the run line behind AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler:

• Moneyline: Rays -115, Yankees -105
• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+160), Rays +1.5 (-195)
• Total (Runs): Over 7.5 (+100), Under 7.5 (-120)

Yankees vs. Rays Predictions

First place in the AL East is on the line in this series, so even without Aaron Judge in the Yankees’ lineup, there are still plenty of betting opportunities at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the Stats Hub for baseball betting insights, trends, and featured picks like the one below:

Rays vs. Yankees Best Bet: Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Home Runs (+300)

Junior Caminero is one of the brightest young stars in baseball, and he has been on an incredible power surge. After an All-Star season in which he launched 45 home runs in 2025, the recently turned 23-year-old has continued to display that same power.

Caminero hit five home runs in May before taking his game to another level in June, when he blasted 10 home runs. That included a six-game home run streak that extended into July after a three-home-run performance on June 25 started the run. He has already homered in three of his first five games this month.

The matchup also works in his favor. While Schlittler has been one of the most dominant pitchers in MLB this season, he is coming off an outing against Detroit in which he surrendered four home runs in four innings, including three in the first inning. Schlittler allowed seven home runs across his six June starts and gave up at least one homer in four of those outings.

Caminero also went 2-for-3 against Schlittler on April 12, although he didn’t leave the yard. While taking Caminero Over 0.5 Hits at -250 is the safer play, it’s difficult to ignore the value on his home run prop given the pace he’s been hitting them.

• Rays vs. Yankees Player Prop Pick for July 6: Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Home Runs (+300)

Top 5 Most-Bet Player Props for NYY-TB

Caminero’s home run prop continues to be one of the hottest plays in player prop markets after the Rays third baseman homered in eight of his last 10 games:

1. Junior Caminero – Home Runs Over 0.5
2. Ben Rice – Home Runs Over 0.5
3. Junior Caminero – Hits Over 0.5
4. Cam Schlittler – Strikeouts Under 6.5
5. Yandy Díaz – Hits Over 0.5

Yankees vs. Rays Betting Splits

Here’s how the action is trending at Hard Rock Bet for Monday’s AL East showdown in St. Petersburg:

• The Rays are generating the majority of moneyline support with 63.1% of bets and 59.9% of the handle.
• Tampa Bay is also attracting more run line support with 69.6% of bets and 65.7% of the handle.
• The Over is drawing slightly more action with 51.7% of bets and 59.6% of the handle.

Yankees vs. Rays Game Info

• 📍 Where: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
• 📅 Date: Monday, July 6
• ⏰ First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET
• 📺💻 TV/Streaming: MLB.TV
• ⚾ Probable Pitchers:
  • Yankees: Cam Schlittler
  • Rays: Griffin Jax

More Ways to Bet

One swing can cash your ticket, but until then, Florida players can keep things interesting with Real Money Games powered by Past Motor Racing, only on Hard Rock Bet. It’s another way to stay engaged between plate appearances.

Referenced odds are subject to change.