Week 5 NFL Survivor Picks: Cowboys Chalk, Traps, and Contrarian Plays for Sunday

Hard Rock Bet’s $2 Million NFL Survivor Contest started last week with the field dwindling to 156,511 players and the winners share rising to $12.78 per person. Not bad for one week. But, we’re not here to talk about last week – we’re looking ahead to Week 5 and trying to Survive.

I’ve looked over the slate and put together my favorite Week 5 Survivor picks covering both the Thursday chalk and options for Sunday. Remember – if you want to make it to the end there are going to be some uncomfortable spots along the way. It can be very valuable to have options once the final weeks roll around. Let’s get into it.

The Safe Week 5 NFL Survivor Pick: Dallas Cowboys

Let’s start with the chalk. The Dallas Cowboys certainly seem like the safest Week 5 pick on the board with more than 40% of the Hard Rock Bet Survivor field already clicking them in with a few hours left until kick.

The Cowboys are the biggest favorite of the week with the point spread sitting at 8.5. They’re playing at home against a winless Buccaneers team that are starting undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels.

Sure, the Bucs put up a fight last weekend at home against Green Bay… but recent evidence indicates that Green Bay aren’t very good either.

Plus, this Dallas side look good regardless of the setup we’re getting. They went on the road last Sunday and beat a desparate, 0-3 Texans team that needed a win to keep their hopes of returning to the playoffs alive. Dallas is playing well and I don’t expect them to struggle tonight.

Use Dallas Now, or Wait?

Looking at Dallas’ rest of seasons schedule there are a few spots you could slot them in if you want to hold on to them and avoid the chalk on Thursday. They play the Cardinals at home in Week 8, but Arizona has been competitive. They host the currently winless Titans in Week 11, and there’s a home matchup with the Dart-less Giants in Week 16 you could potentially target but that one doesn’t look like it’s worth waiting for right now. My general conclusion is that this might be the best spot we get for Dallas this year.

Cowboys Week 5 Survivor Ownership

So why wouldn’t you take Dallas this week? Well, the Cowboys will be the most common play this week and sometimes it pays to get different when playing in a Survivor pool. As of publication 40.6% (and rising) of the remaining players in the contest are on Dallas.

If something unexpected happens on Thursday night your odds of winning the contest, or pocketing a larger share, increase dramatically with such a large % of the participants bowing out.

Getting Different – Bold Week 5 NFL Survivor Plays

So let’s say you’re saving the Cowboys for later in the season, want to be contrarian, or simply forgot to queue them in on Thursday night before the game. Where are we going? Here are a few spots I’m keeping an eye on as potential Week 5 Survivor plays.

Atlanta Falcons (.6% pick rate)

Look, ideally I’m not picking against the Baltimore Ravens at any point in my Survivor pool but here me out on this one.

The Falcons look pretty damn good since Michael Penix got back under center. They absolutely smoked the Packers at Lambeau 35-14 in Week 3 on Thursday Night Football. Penix looked confident, Bijan topped 200 total yards, and Drake London managed 194 yards through the air – it was a dominant performance.

Fast forward to Week 4 and the Falcons, again in prime time, went on the road and smashed the Saints 45-24 with the same cast starring for Atlanta.

Sure, you can point out that the Packers and Saints may not be the strongest opposition that the league has to offer, but the Saints did beat the Ravens in Baltimore this year… and Lamar Jackson may be sitting this one out. If the news breaks that way, I’m interested in the Falcons as a contrarian play… especially if you forgot to submit a pick earlier in the day and need a winner from the Sunday and Monday night matchups.

If Lamar does go, I’m not touching this one, though.

Cincinnati Bengals (21% pick rate)

The Bengals are 2-2 and travel south to Miami to take on the winless Dolphins during Week 5. Simply put, if the Bengals have aspirations of contending in 2026 this is a game they need to be winning.

What I don’t like:

• The Dolphins were competitive against the Vikings last week in Minnesota
• I don’t love taking road teams if I can avoid it
• This is a 1pm kickoff in Miami with a high of 87 degrees
• Bengals offensive injuries (Chase/Higgins)

If Chase and/or Higgins make it, I’m good riding with the Bengals but would likely stay clear it if they sit.

Houston Texans (17% pick rate)

So here’s what I like about the Texans as a Survivor pick:

• They’re a 7.5 point favorite
• They’re playing the 0-4 Titans
• They’re well coached and have an excellent defense

But there are also a few things that I don’t love…

• The Texans are also 0-4
• They’re a dome team playing on the road, outdoors
• This is an AFC South divisional contest

Ultimately it’s a tricky week and this is one of the better spots on paper that I’m comfortable attacking.

It’s A Trap? – Jacksonville Jaguars

Look, the vibes in Philly aren’t great at the moment. Mounting injuries, consecutive defeats, and they lost two starting offensive linemen this week due to both retirement and a trade… but the sample size for this team struggling remains pretty small. Despite the Jaguars being 7.5 point favorites, I’m not very interested.

The Eagles nearly beat a Rams team on Sunday that are the current betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. To be clear, I like Jacksonville in this one I just don’t feel a need to risk my Survivor season picking against the Eagles unless I absolutely have to.

Oh, and don’t forget this one’s in London, too, so it’s not a true home game for Jacksonville.

Submit Your Picks Today

If you’re still alive in Hard Rock Bet’s $2 Million Survivor Contest, don’t let a missed pick end your run. Submit your Week 5 selection in the app now – you can also enter picks for the rest of the season!

Good luck and I’ll see you in Week 6!