South Florida heads to San Antonio on Thursday night looking to bounce back from its first loss of the season, but a road matchup with UTSA presents another tough AAC test for the Bulls.
Both programs enter tonight’s matchup at 4-1 overall. South Florida is 1-1 in league play after a disappointing home loss to Temple, while UTSA is 1-0 in the American following a narrow victory over Rice.
The Bulls began the year with four consecutive wins under first-year head coach Brian Hartline, defeating FIU, Army, Delaware State and Bowling Green. They picked up two of those victories on the road, including a 28-24 win at Army, before returning home last Saturday to face Temple.
South Florida struggled to get much going offensively against the Owls and ultimately fell 17-13. Quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. threw for 205 yards, but the Bulls couldn’t overcome their offensive struggles as Temple handed them their first defeat of 2026.
UTSA, meanwhile, has won four of its first five games for the first time since 2021. The Roadrunners opened with a victory over UTRGV, beat Texas State on the road and suffered their only loss at Texas before returning home to defeat Colorado State. UTSA then managed just 16 points against Rice but held the Owls to 232 total yards in a 16-14 victory to begin conference play.
Head coach Jeff Traylor has established a significant home-field advantage during his tenure in San Antonio. The Roadrunners are 35-5 at the Alamodome since 2020, including a 25-1 record against conference opponents.
Thursday also serves as a rematch of last November’s meeting in Tampa, when South Florida rolled to a 55-23 victory. UTSA won the programs’ first matchup 49-21 in 2023, leaving the all-time series tied at one game apiece.
Kickoff from the Alamodome is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
South Florida vs. UTSA Odds
UTSA is favored by 6.5 points for Thursday night’s AAC matchup at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: UTSA -6.5 (-120) | South Florida +6.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: UTSA -250 | South Florida +195
- Total: Over 50.5 (-105) | Under 50.5 (-115)
Referenced odds subject to change.
South Florida vs. UTSA Prediction
Under 50.5 (-115): Both teams have played five games this season, and their results provide several reasons to consider the Under in Thursday night’s matchup.
South Florida has seen three of its five games finish below the posted 50.5-point total for tonight, including three of its four contests against FBS opponents. The Bulls opened with a 19-9 victory over FIU, played to a 28-24 win against Army and then beat Bowling Green 14-6 before losing 17-13 to Temple last weekend.
The only South Florida game to finish well above Thursday’s number came against Delaware State, an FCS opponent the Bulls defeated 59-17.
South Florida’s defense has been a major factor in those results. The Bulls have allowed just 73 points through five games, an average of 14.6 per contest. They’ve also held three of those five opponents to single digits.
Their offense has also had difficulty putting points on the board recently. South Florida has scored just 27 combined points over its last two games, with Van Buren throwing for only 78 yards against Bowling Green before his 205-yard performance against Temple.
UTSA has produced some higher-scoring results, most notably its 59-45 victory over Colorado State. But the Roadrunners have also been held to six points by Texas and 16 by Rice, with both games finishing comfortably below tonight’s total.
The Under has cashed in three of UTSA’s five games this season, matching South Florida’s 3-2 record to the Under. With the Bulls struggling offensively and both defenses coming off solid performances, another lower-scoring contest is worth backing Thursday night.
- Best Bet: Under 50.5 (-115)
Betting Splits at Hard Rock Bet
- Moneyline: UTSA has received 75.1% of all ML bets and 69.1% of the handle.
- Spread: UTSA -6.5 accounts for approximately 44% of spread tickets and 70% of the handle.
- Total: Over 50.5 has drawn 68% of all wagers, but Under 50.5 leads with 58% of the handle.
South Florida vs. UTSA Game Info
- šļø Location: Alamodome – San Antonio, Texas
- š Date: Thursday, October 8
- ā° Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- šŗ Where to Watch: ESPN
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