No. 21 UCLA vs. No. 13 Oregon Picks, Predictions & Preview

The No. 21-ranked UCLA Bruins head on the road to take on the No. 13-ranked Oregon Ducks. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS.

The Ducks are coming off a bye week after a massive win, with Dylan Raiola likely starting this football game for the first time in an Oregon uniform. He did a good job in backup duty after Dante Moore went out against USC.

UCLA, same thing. Coming off a bye week following a dominant win two weeks ago against Maryland. All three phases took care of business out there in Maryland.

It’s an interesting one. Oregon is a 12.5-point favorite in this football game.

The key to victory for me is whether Oregon is going to be able to stop this rushing attack from UCLA.

Can Oregon Stop UCLA’s Rushing Attack?

This UCLA football team can run the damn rock, particularly Wayne Knight.

Knight, the transfer from JMU, is a blast to watch if you haven’t seen him run the football. He’s a rolling ball of butcher knives. He’s about 5-foot-nothing, about 210 pounds, and built like a brick house. You can’t see him until he’s running over your face.

If you think Fluff Bothwell is fun to watch run, watch this guy Saturday afternoon at Oregon.

Knight is averaging nine yards per carry right now, and the Bruins are fourth in the country in total rushing yards per game.

If Oregon can put the game on Nico Iamaleava’s right arm, they will dominate. But I don’t know if they can do that right now.

UCLA is an extremely balanced football team.

UCLA’s Defense Needs Early Stops

My X-factor is that UCLA’s defense better make stops early on drives.

Have you seen these red zone defensive stats for UCLA?

They’re 104th right now in red zone defense. If you get down there, you’re going to score.

And who leads the country in red zone offense? The Oregon Ducks.

If I were this bad in red zone defense and the opponent were that great in red zone offense, we would be taking calculated risks early in drives.

We would be trying to get stops early and not doing the whole bend-but-don’t-break stuff. Because through five games, you’re breaking. You’re getting teams down there, and they are scoring.

So let’s not let them down there.

The only way to do that is to take calculated risks on early downs and early possessions, hope you can get them in third-and-long situations, and then get off the field.

But if you let Oregon walk it down into the red area, they’re going to score on you down there.

That would be a major concern in this football game if I’m Bob Chesney.

Drew Mehringer and Oregon’s Red Zone Offense

I’ve always said the sign of a great offensive coordinator is what you do in the red area, when the box gets tight and there’s not a lot of room to work with.

If you’re creative and you score a lot of touchdowns down there, and you do it in a creative way with easy walk-in touchdowns, you are creative as hell and your bag runs deep.

Everybody’s good between the 20s, guys.

Especially nowadays, when man-to-man defense is by the wayside. You can count on one hand how many teams are base man-to-man in college football nowadays. Most teams are playing zone.

What does that mean? Easy completions are available. Being able to matriculate the football is available, even against great defenses.

But if you get down there in the red area and you’re great, you’ve got a great coordinator.

Drew Mehringer was an internal hire. Obviously, Will Stein goes to Kentucky as the head coach, and Oregon promotes internally.

I think Mehringer has done a good job in the red area. The stats would back that up as well.

That is the X-factor in this football game. Can UCLA get stops early on possessions? Do not let Oregon walk the ball down the field.

Nico Iamaleava Has to Be Involved in the Run Game

I think Iamaleava is going to have to run the football. I’m thinking 19, maybe 20 rushing attempts.

This is UCLA’s last big test. They still play USC and Michigan, but their schedule is not that bad.

If they get out of here with a win, they are a playoff team.

So throw all caution to the wind and let’s get after it. Let’s get our quarterback involved early and often.

Let’s go on an 18-play drive featuring 16 runs and dump the clip. Let’s do it right now.

I’m thinking Nico Iamaleava has more rushing attempts than any Oregon football player.

You heard it here first.

UCLA vs. Oregon Prediction

Oregon wins this one, 31-17.