We got back on track a bit yesterday with a 2-1 day.
The Hard Rock Bet of the Day came through with CJ Abrams scoring a run for the Nationals, and the Marlins cashed as well. The only loss was the Royals-Nationals game staying under the total, so overall it was a profitable day heading into Thursday.
My Scottie Scheffler bet for the U.S. Open gets underway today, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on that throughout the weekend. As for the World Cup, I’ve had a tough time finding my footing early in the tournament. There have been some surprising results, and while I could see South Korea making things difficult for Mexico today – or even earning a draw – I’m going to stay away from soccer for now.
Instead, we’re sticking with what has treated us well all season: Major League Baseball.
We’re about six games over .500 on baseball bets this year. We’re not lighting the world on fire, but we’re grinding out a profit, and that’s where we’re going again today with three moneyline plays.
Phillies Moneyline (-125)
Let’s start in Philadelphia where Aaron Nola takes the mound against Sean Manaea and the New York Mets.
For me, this handicap is pretty straightforward.
The Mets have consistently struggled in games started by Manaea. Despite the fact that he hasn’t pitched terribly, New York has lost four of his last five starts. Manaea has allowed only five earned runs during the month of June, but the Mets simply haven’t been able to win when he’s on the hill.
Meanwhile, the Phillies continue to find ways to win games started by Aaron Nola.
Philadelphia has won every game Nola has started during June, and dating back to early May, they’ve lost only one game with him on the mound. Nola hasn’t been dominant from a statistical standpoint, but he’s getting plenty of run support and the Phillies continue to cash tickets for bettors.
The Phillies dropped yesterday’s game, but this feels like a good bounce-back spot.
Sometimes you don’t need to overthink it. The Phillies win when Nola pitches. The Mets lose when Manaea pitches.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-125) (1.25 units)
Red Sox Moneyline (-120)
The Red Sox have become one of the more frustrating teams in baseball.
Boston has lost three straight games and continues to struggle offensively. They managed just one run in their first two games against Toronto, and frustrations are mounting at Fenway Park.
However, today is Sonny Gray Day.
Gray has quietly been excellent this season and has been particularly dominant at home. He enters this start with a 2.32 ERA at Fenway, a 4-0 record, and an opposing batting average of just .205. He’s allowed only eight earned runs in 31 innings at home.
With trade season approaching, Gray could become one of the most sought-after arms on the market if Boston decides to sell. Right now, he’s pitching like someone determined to maximize his value.
Toronto counters with Trey Yesavage, who has shown flashes but has struggled recently. The Blue Jays have lost three of his last four starts, and he’s coming off a stretch where he’s allowed plenty of hard contact and runs.
Boston’s overall home record is ugly, but this is a situation where I’m backing the starting pitcher.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-120) (1.2 units)
Brewers Moneyline (-150)
Our final play takes us to Milwaukee.
The Brewers are looking for a sweep after winning the first two games of this series against Cleveland.
Shane Drohan gets the ball for Milwaukee, and while his numbers haven’t been spectacular lately, the Brewers continue finding ways to win games he starts. Milwaukee has won three of his last four starts, including blowout victories over Colorado and San Francisco.
The bigger angle for me is fading Cleveland starter Parker Messick.
The Guardians have lost three straight games started by Messick. He hasn’t been awful individually, but Cleveland hasn’t been able to generate enough offense or support behind him. Over his last three starts, the Guardians have lost by scores of 8-4, 3-2, and 9-1.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee has already taken the first two games of this series by scores of 2-1 and 9-4.
The Brewers have the momentum, they’re at home, and they’re facing a Cleveland team that appears to be coming back down to earth after overachieving for much of the season.
I’ll pay the price and back Milwaukee to complete the sweep.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-150) (1.5 units)
Thursday’s Betting Card
- Phillies Moneyline (-125) (1.25 units)
- Red Sox Moneyline (-120) (1.2 units)
- Brewers Moneyline (-150) (1.5 units)
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