Wednesday’s show ended up being longer than expected, but once we got through everything, there were four bets I wanted to make very clear. Two NFL bets for Saturday and two college basketball plays for today. That’s it. No parlays, no fluff – just spots I think are worth attacking based on matchup, tempo, and market behavior.
Let’s start with football.
Rams/Panthers Over 46.5
This Rams-Panthers game has the potential to make history from a point spread standpoint, but I’m far more interested in the total. The Rams have been one of the best over teams on the road all season, going 7-2 to the over away from home. Carolina’s recent unders have more to do with the defenses they faced than any offensive shortcomings.
The first meeting between these teams flew over the total, with Carolina scoring 31 points in a 31-28 win. Matthew Stafford played poorly in that game, and the Rams still put up 28. Since then, this Rams defense has been far more vulnerable on the road, and their final six games of the regular season all went over.
Getting Davante Adams back is a massive upgrade for the Rams’ red-zone efficiency, and Carolina has shown they can score against this defense. I don’t need Carolina to win or even cover – I just need points. Everything points to tempo, efficiency, and sustained drives on both sides.
I’m playing Rams-Panthers over 46.5 for 1.1 units.
Packers (-1) vs Bears
This is a game where the market can’t seem to agree on a side, but I’m trusting history, experience, and matchup familiarity. The Packers are 12-2 straight up against the Bears over their last 14 meetings. That matters to me.
Yes, Green Bay has struggled against the number this season. Yes, Chicago has been excellent ATS. But this is the playoffs, and this is Caleb Williams’ first postseason start against a team that knows exactly how to attack him.
I also worry about Chicago getting too cute. Ben Johnson has been excellent, but playoff football is different. One bad call, one ill-timed trick play, and the game swings. Green Bay has been here before. Jordan Love has been here before.
This isn’t a big number. I don’t need dominance – I just need Green Bay to win the game. I’m laying Packers -1.
Creighton/Villanova Under 141.5
Now let’s shift to college basketball for Wednesday night.
Creighton has not shot the ball well at Villanova’s building, and the numbers back that up. They’re 0-6 all-time at this venue and average significantly fewer points there than elsewhere. On the road this season, Creighton is 6-1 to the under, with the lone over coming in an outlier performance where they couldn’t miss from three.
This is also not a typical Creighton roster. They don’t shoot the three well, and they rely more on half-court execution than pace. Villanova is similar. When these teams meet, games tend to stay tight, physical, and possession-based.
KenPom projects this game lower than the current market number, and I don’t believe the late push upward is sharp money. I expect buyback on the under. Both coaches are defensive-minded, and neither team benefits from speeding this game up.
I’m playing Creighton-Villanova under 141.5.
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Alabama/Vanderbilt Over 177.5
This is my Hard Rock Bet of the Day, and it’s all about tempo and offensive efficiency. Alabama and Vanderbilt both want to run. Alabama ranks among the fastest teams in the country in average possession length, and Vanderbilt isn’t far behind.
Offensively, these are elite units. Vanderbilt ranks near the top nationally in offensive efficiency, while Alabama sits right behind them. Effective field goal percentage is strong for both teams, and while neither defense is terrible, neither is good enough to slow this game down consistently.
KenPom projects this game well into the 180s, yet the market is hanging numbers in the high 170s. That’s value. Even with Vanderbilt being favored at home due to defensive metrics, this matchup screams points.
We’ve seen high-scoring games between these teams before, especially when Alabama dictates tempo. I expect possessions, transition opportunities, and shot volume all night.
I’m taking Alabama-Vanderbilt over 177.5 at -110 as my Hard Rock Bet of the Day.
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