We bounced back with a winning day on Tuesday.
The Athletics overs in Vegas continue to be a gift, although it depended on when you got your number. If you bet it late, you probably lost after the total climbed to 13 and the game landed on 12. If you got in earlier at 11.5, it cashed.
Dodgers moneyline came through thanks to a huge 8th inning, while the Golden Knights-Hurricanes under never had much of a chance. At this point, unders simply may not be a thing in this series.
Now our attention turns to Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Knicks and Spurs.
Let’s get into Wednesday’s card.
Knicks vs. Spurs Over 216.5
There are a lot of trends pointing toward the under in this game – let me explain to you why I’m betting the over.
It’s because of the way the Spurs play on the road.
Time after time during the postseason, San Antonio’s road games have gone over the total. We saw it multiple times against Oklahoma City, and we saw it again in Game 3 against New York. Just the way the Spurs played in Game 3, and the tempo in which they played, makes me expect a very similar style tonight.
I expect a lot of possessions. I expect this game to be back and forth. I expect it to be up and down.
I think Karl-Anthony Towns can be more effective. I think De’Aaron Fox can be more effective. OG Anunoby was tremendous in Game 3, but if he doesn’t repeat that performance, Jalen Brunson is certainly capable of having a much better game.
To be quite honest, I’m torn as to who’s going to win this game. I can make a case for both teams.
So I’m not getting involved with the side. I’m betting the over.
Pick: Knicks vs. Spurs Over 216.5 (-110)
De’Aaron Fox Over 20.5 Points + Assists
We’re going right back to it with Fox.
We played De’Aaron Fox over 20.5 points and assists in Game 3, and it landed on 20. He played pretty poorly and still nearly got there.
Fox shot just 4-14 from the field and 0-5 from three-point range. If he hits one three, we cash. If he makes one more field goal, we cash.
After shooting 67% from the floor in Game 2, Fox dropped to 29% in Game 3. Even with the poor shooting night, he still handed out eight assists.
I think he shoots the ball much better tonight. I think the assists stay up.
We got hooked in Game 3. Let’s cash it here in Game 4.
Pick: De’Aaron Fox Over 20.5 Points + Assists (-110)
Athletics vs. Brewers Over 14.5 Runs
Why bet anything else?
Oddsmakers are getting wise to what’s happening in Las Vegas between these two teams, but I’m going back to the well again.
Jack Perkins gets the start for Oakland and owns a 6.32 ERA on the road. He’s essentially an opener, and both bullpens have already burned through a lot of arms in this series. Milwaukee’s starter, Brandon Sproat, isn’t exactly coming in dealing either.
In this ballpark, with these lineups and the home run power both teams currently have, I think we’re looking at another high-scoring game.
Game 1 went over. Game 2 went over the opening number.
Now the total is 14.5.
I know it’s high. I’m going to play it again.
We’re 2-0 so far betting overs in this series. Let’s try to make it 3-0.
Pick: Athletics vs. Brewers Over 14.5 Runs (-110)
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Braves Moneyline (-142)
My Hard Rock Bet of the Day takes us to Chicago.
Chris Sale gets the ball for Atlanta, and he’s firmly in the Cy Young conversation. Sale enters 8-4 with a 2.23 ERA and has been one of the most productive pitchers in baseball all season.
The White Sox counter with Davis Martin, who has also been outstanding. Martin enters 8-2 with a 2.61 ERA and has been especially dominant at home.
The difference for me is simple.
When you’ve got ace against ace, I’m going to lean on the Braves.
Atlanta is 23-11 on the road. The White Sox are 21-11 at home. Chicago took Game 1 of the series, but I think this is a good price on Chris Sale.
Good versus good, I’ll take the Braves.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-142) (1.42 units)
Wednesday’s Betting Card
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Braves Moneyline (-142)
- Knicks vs. Spurs Over 216.5 (-110)
- De’Aaron Fox Over 20.5 Points + Assists (-110)
- Athletics vs. Brewers Over 14.5 Runs (-110)
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