The Daily Juice: Best Bets, Picks & Predictions for MTL-CAR Game 5 & Friday MLB

Until we go cold, we’re going to ride this for as long as we can ride it.

Another sweep. A 3-0 night. We just got there with the player prop, cashing the over with 28 points for Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs were the easy bet of the day. The Braves also picked up an easy win over the Red Sox.

A 3-0 night means three more units added to the bankroll. By my count, we’re now 9-4 this week and up over seven units. For the month of May, we’re up 20 units.

Now, this is going to turn eventually, and I think today might be the day that it turns. I just have a sneaky feeling that today could be a rough day. So don’t start piling on and hammering these plays.

This is the time to be disciplined.

For now, let’s enjoy it. It’s been a very good month of May. I’m going to be sad to see May go. June will obviously bring a different opportunity and a different month.

Today, we’ve got four bets: two in baseball and two involving Game 5 tonight between Montreal and Carolina in the Eastern Conference Final.

Brewers vs. Astros: Brewers Moneyline (-115)

Let’s start with baseball and the Milwaukee Brewers.

I’m a huge Brewers fan. They’re 33-20 on the season and have won three games in a row. They’re coming off a successful homestand in which they won four of the six games they played. Now they head to Houston to take on the Astros.

Milwaukee sends Coleman Crow to the mound against Teng for Houston.

The Astros have been throwing the ball really well lately, including a combined three-pitcher no-hitter this week. But Teng isn’t a traditional starting pitcher. Houston has been trying to stretch him out. He went six innings in his last start and five innings before that, but earlier in the season he was pitching one, two, or three innings at a time.

We’ll see what happens against a very good Brewers offense.

Milwaukee has been excellent away from home, posting a 14-9 road record. Houston is just 12-14 at home.

Crow owns a 2.61 ERA. He allowed one earned run and two earned runs in his two starts on April 17 and May 15. It’s not as though he’s being run out there every fifth day. The 25-year-old gets another opportunity here.

I like the offense. I like the fact that Milwaukee is hot. And I like betting on teams that are streaking and playing well.

The Astros aren’t a bad baseball team. They’ve actually won six of their last seven games. But I’ll take the better offense and the hotter team at a short price.

Let’s back Milwaukee in this National League versus American League matchup.

• Brewers vs. Astros Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-115) (1.15 units)

Phillies vs. Dodgers: Dodgers Moneyline (-115)

The second baseball bet comes from Los Angeles.

The Brewers are better than the Astros, and the Dodgers are better than the Phillies. They just are.

Now, Zack Wheeler has been tremendous this season. The Dodgers counter with the young starter [Justin Wrobleski] whose name I still can’t pronounce. He lost his last start 5-1 and lost 7-2 at home to Atlanta, but overall he’s 6-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 2-1 at home with a 3.38 ERA.

The Dodgers have won five games in a row. They took two of three from Milwaukee on the road, then swept Colorado with wins of 5-3, 15-6, and 4-1.

You can say, “That’s the Rockies.” That’s fine. The Dodgers have still won five straight games and sit at 36-20.

Yes, Zack Wheeler hasn’t lost yet. The Phillies are 5-0 in games started by Wheeler. He’s 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA.

The Phillies have won games started by Wheeler by scores of 3-0, 6-0, 2-1, 6-3, and 6-5. He’s allowed zero, zero, one, three, and one earned runs in those five starts.

So why bet against Zack Wheeler and the Phillies?

The answer is simple: the Dodgers’ offense. Shohei Ohtani. Freddie Freeman.

When I get a price on the Dodgers this cheap while they’re this hot, I don’t care who’s pitching. If this game were in Philadelphia, I wouldn’t be doing it. But it’s in Los Angeles.

This game most likely goes under, but I’m taking the short price anyway.

These are heat-check bets.

• Phillies vs. Dodgers Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-115) (1.15 units)

Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Game 5: Under 5.5 Goals (-110)

Now to hockey.

Montreal just set the record for the fewest shots on goal over a three-game stretch since the NHL began tracking the statistic in 1955.

I don’t know what they’re doing. If you don’t shoot the puck, you can’t win. If you don’t put the puck on net, you can’t score. Montreal refuses to shoot against this Carolina defense.

Game 4 ended 4-0. I think we’re in for a very similar type of game here.

Maybe Montreal scores one goal. Maybe Carolina gets three or four. The only thing that worries me is an empty-net goal creating a 5-1 final.

The total sits at 5.5. I bet the over in Game 4. That was a mistake. I’m not making the same mistake twice.

In a closeout game, there are tight nerves. Players grip their sticks a little tighter and don’t play as loose.

• Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Game 5 Pick: Under 5.5 Goals (-110) (1.1 units)

Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Hurricanes -1.5 Puck Line (+110)

As for today’s play, we’ve hit five Hard Rock Bets of the Day in a row.

The moneyline is too expensive, so we’re taking the puck line. Carolina has to win by more than one goal.

An empty-net goal might be needed late. If it’s 3-2, we’re cooked. But 4-2 feels very possible. So does 3-1.

At +110, it’s worth the shot.

Like I mentioned earlier, these are heat-check bets. We’ve been running well, so let’s see if we can stay hot.

Carolina has a chance to punch its ticket to the Stanley Cup Final and set up a matchup with the Vegas Golden Knights beginning next week.

• Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Hurricanes -1.5 Puck Line (+110) (1 unit)

Friday’s Betting Card

• Brewers Moneyline (-115)
• Dodgers Moneyline (-115)
• Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Under 5.5 (-110)
• Hurricanes -1.5 Puck Line (+110)