The Daily Juice: Best Bets for Friday Night NBA Play-In Tournament, MLB

NBA Play-In Tournament: Warriors +2.5 vs. Suns

Let’s start with Golden State.

The number has moved. We bet them at +2.5, but now you can get +3 or +3.5. The professionals like the Suns a lot – I get it. I understand why.

But I’m not fading Steph Curry. I’m not fading Steve Kerr.

Call it sharp, call it square, call it public, call it recency bias – whatever you want to call it. I’m just not fading the Warriors.

This is the books and the pros saying the Warriors can’t do it again. They’re not going to score 43 points in the fourth quarter again. They’re not going to shoot like that again. Phoenix is better. Golden State is going to have to play defense.

All very true.

But I don’t think we have a correct read on this team. We haven’t seen enough of this full group together.

Winner-take-all, backs against the wall – loser goes home.

I’m taking the Warriors.

The Play: Warriors +2.5 (1.1 units)

NBA Play-In Tournament: Hornets Moneyline vs. Magic

Same thing here – I’m taking the Hornets.

The number has crept up to 3.5, maybe even 4 by tip. I think the Magic are toast.

I’m taking the Charlotte Hornets to win and advance into the Eastern Conference playoff bracket.

This is a spot where they need to step up – and I think they do.

The Play: Hornets Moneyline

Phillies ML (+102) vs. Braves

Let’s go to baseball.

First meeting of the season between these two arch rivals. The Bank will be open tonight. The Braves are 12-7, the Phillies are 8-10.

Taijuan Walker goes for Philly: 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA. Not a great start. But his last outing at home was better: five innings, two earned runs in a win over Arizona.

Martin Perez goes for Atlanta. He’s been good overall, but did have a shaky road start against Arizona.

Frankly, these are the games the Phillies have to win. Friday night at home, arch rival in town – they cannot lose much ground.

I get a home dog price here. It’s too good to pass up.

The Play: Phillies ML (+102) (1.1 units)

Mariners ML (-123) vs. Rangers

Next up, Rangers and Mariners.

Texas swept Seattle earlier this year. Now the Mariners are back home after getting swept by the Padres. This is a revenge spot.

Logan Gilbert has been a stopper in his career. When Seattle needs a win, he steps up. He’s coming off a strong outing – one earned run in seven innings against Houston.

Jacob deGrom has been good – 2.87 ERA – and Texas has won all three of his starts.

The total is 6.5, and I don’t mind the under, but I’m going with the home team here.

Friday night, rival, bounce-back spot – I like Seattle.

The Play: Mariners ML (-123) (1.23 units)

Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Kon Knueppel Over 2.5 Threes (-144)

Let’s go to the prop market.

Kon Knueppel was awful in his last game: six points, 2-for-12 shooting, 0-for-6 from three. No debate.

But this is a guy who just set the record for most made threes by a rookie in a single season.

He’s gone over this number 8 of his last 15 games when it’s set at 2.5. The prop bet cheat sheet projects him over with a 68% cover probability: five-star play.

This is a do-or-die game for the Hornets. He needs to play better – and I think he will.

Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Kon Knueppel Over 2.5 Threes (-144) (1.44 units)

Final Card

Here’s what we’re playing today:

• Warriors +2.5
• Hornets ML
• Phillies ML (+102)
• Mariners ML (-123)
• Kon Knueppel Over 2.5 Threes (-144)

Little bit bigger card than usual here for a Friday, but let’s get after it.