Welcome in to a Friday morning episode of the Daily Juice.
Last night was one of those nights where you see things right, but three points knocked down two bets for us. The Lakers were going to cover the spread, then the Nuggets ended the game on a 10-2 run. Even with that, Luka had a shot to hit a three to cover and give us a 2-1 night. Instead, we wind up 1-2, down 1.2 units. Southern Illinois and Drake went way under – we got that right. Valpo wins by 1, not 2.5 or 3 like we hoped. So, a little cool down. We were 7-1, now 8-3 heading into Friday’s loaded slate.
I have four bets for us today: two college basketball, one World Baseball Classic, and an NBA selection for my Hard Rock Bet of the Day.
Drake vs. Belmont – First Half Under 76.5
Let’s talk Arch Madness and a betting angle I really like.
The team that plays on Thursday and then turns around to face the No. 1 seed in the first game Friday has historically been in a strong underdog spot – particularly in the first half. The Thursday team comes in fired up, while the No. 1 seed can start tight knowing they have to win the tournament to make the Big Dance. Belmont has to win this event to get in.
Drake finally won a game. I expect them to be locked in defensively. I also think Belmont plays tight offensively. Since 2010 in this quarterfinal situation, the first half under is 28-16 (64%).
I had to search for this number, but we’re going with Drake vs. Belmont First Half Under 76.5 (-110).
You could also take Drake +6.5 in the first half, but officially, we’re on the total.
Valparaiso vs. Bradley – Full Game Over 135
Staying in Arch Madness.
Valpo played yesterday and won in comeback fashion. Bradley did not. This is a Friday night game – good crowd, great atmosphere. While Thursday games trend under, Friday games in this tournament have tended to go over because of high-scoring second halves.
The total has dropped dramatically: opened 143.5, now 135. KenPom has it around 142. I think we see offense in the second half as legs get tired.
That said, we’re on Valparaiso vs. Bradley Over 135.
World Baseball Classic: Team USA vs. Brazil Over 14.5
Now onto baseball.
Team USA has scored 15 and 14 runs in their exhibition games thus far. Now they face Brazil, likely throwing a high school pitcher. The total is 14.5.
I think Team USA scores a ton of runs – maybe 15 themselves. Give me Over 14.5 (-125) in USA vs. Brazil.
Just make sure you’re betting at a book that will honor the wager if the game ends early.
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Celtics vs. Mavericks Under 222.5 (-110)
Jayson Tatum is back for Boston. Eventually, we’ll bring back Celtics first-half team total overs – but not yet.
Boston has been elite defensively: 40-22 to the under. Dallas is 35-27 to the under. Dallas’ last four have gone under. Boston has gone under in six of their last seven.
Dallas scored 114 last game, but before that: 90 and 87. I expect them in the 90s again. Boston around 110.
The total is 222.5. Celtics are 15.5-point favorites. I’d rather play the total than the side. Celtics vs. Mavericks Under 222.5 (-110).
Hard Rock Bet of the Day record: 16-13 on the year.
Final Card
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Celtics vs. Mavericks Under 222.5 (-110)
- Drake vs. Belmont 1H Under 76.5
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Valparaiso vs. Bradley Over 135
- Team USA vs. Brazil Over 14.5 (-125)
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