No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma Picks & Predictions for Red River Rivalry

The Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma vs. Texas. A 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC.

Brent Venables and the Sooners are reeling, and at this point in his tenure, Venables is still looking for his first win over Texas as Oklahoma’s head football coach.

I’m going to tell you what. If you like defense, this is your football game. These are two great defenses. Not good. Great. Both teams rank inside the top 45 in just about every defensive category known to man. And you can sit here and tell me that so-and-so hasn’t played anybody. Not these two football teams.

Oklahoma has gone on the road to the Big House and to Athens to play inside Sanford Stadium. Texas has already played Ohio State and beaten the Buckeyes in comeback fashion, and gone to Tennessee and won.

Both teams have played physical brands of football against great football teams ranked inside the top 25. They’re heavily tested, particularly on defense.

Keys to the Game

My key to the matchup is nice and simple. Which one of these quarterbacks can actually work his way into some comfort?

Arch Manning has three interceptions on the year. John “Mr. Turn It Over” Mateer has four interceptions and two fumbles. Now, almost 70% of that total came against Georgia in one football game. But it ain’t like he’s been all that bang-up outside of that, either.

And this isn’t even in my notes. This is a random tangent, but you know what I get sick and freaking tired of? People screenshotting box scores, looking at yardage, turnovers, and QBR, and comparing quarterbacks like that’s all there is to evaluating the position.

If you’ve actually watched Manning and Mateer play quarterback this year, whether on film or just watching the games, one of them is playing okay and wanting more. The other one is playing absolutely horrendous. One of them has you thinking, “Oh my, do y’all not have a backup?” That’s how bad one of them is playing.

I don’t care what the stats say. One of them is relatively inaccurate on a down-to-down basis. The other one is bound to shoot his entire football team in the foot.

So don’t do the whole Player A vs. Player B box-score comparison with me. We’ve all watched them. One of them is okay. The other one has been horrible. Absolutely horrible.

OU Can’t Keep Putting Its Defense in Bad Situations

I think Oklahoma has a chance in this football game if the Sooners don’t keep giving their defense short fields.

Here’s a fun stat. Oklahoma’s defense is top five in the sport right now in yards allowed per game. But the Sooners are 24th in points allowed per game. How does that happen? They keep getting left on short fields because of the turnovers.

Oklahoma’s defense has been out there a little too long because the offense can’t hold onto the football. And that’s the frustrating part. This is a great defense. It’s been tested against really good football teams, and it has shown that it can hold up. But you can’t keep putting that unit in impossible situations and expect it to bail you out every single time.

That’s why the quarterback play is so important in this matchup. And it’s also why I can’t stand box-score scouting. If you’re just looking at a screenshot of somebody’s statistics or using a PFF grade to tell me how good or bad a quarterback is, you’re missing a whole lot of what actually happens on the football field.

Watch the tape.

Sark’s Game Plan Against OU

I thought Sark’s best game plan of the entire season last year was against Oklahoma. Now, he scrapped the whole thing the very next week and went back to the same old stuff he was doing, acting as if his offensive line could consistently protect. But against Oklahoma, I thought he had a really good plan.

Tre Wisner caught a bunch of footballs. I don’t remember exactly how many, but it felt like he had about 16 catches. Obviously, that’s probably hyperbole. But the approach was simple. Check the football down. Get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands. Operate smoothly.

I think Arch had something like 19 completions for 130 yards. It was a dink-and-dunk approach. Let’s win on defense, field position, and special teams. That’s how Texas approached that football game, and I thought it worked really well.

Maybe we see something similar this year. And maybe that makes Ryan Niblett an X-factor on special teams, although he hasn’t popped quite as much this season as he did last year.

Oklahoma X-Factor: Isaiah Sategna

My X-factor has been the same guy for Oklahoma over the last two football games because I think he’s their only real offensive hope: Isaiah Sategna.

Whether it’s punt returns, kick returns, or somehow getting him three or four explosive opportunities offensively, I think he’s the guy Oklahoma has to lean on. That’s their chance to create field position where they can actually score points. Maybe get into field goal range.

Because I’m not going to sit here and tell you Oklahoma is magically going to find a running game. They ain’t. I’m not going to tell you John Mateer is suddenly going to start working through his second and third reads consistently. He ain’t.

The only option I see is Ben Arbuckle getting into his absolute bag and finding ways to get Sategna the football. Somehow. Some way. And I would imagine Will Muschamp has quite a game plan to take that away.

That’s about all I’ve got from an X-factor standpoint for Oklahoma.

OU Needs to Simplify Things for Mateer

You know what was funny and terrifying going into Oklahoma’s matchup against Georgia? I was told by Oklahoma insiders that they were going to spread things back out and let Mateer be a playmaker again. Let him do his thing.

I don’t know if that’s what we need to be doing, bud. Why don’t we get back into 12 personnel? Why don’t we get back under center? Why don’t we start rolling him out?

Every time the football is on the left hash, run play-action and roll him to the right. Tell him, “Hey, if he ain’t open, you are.” We’ll take four yards. That’s fine.

What we cannot do is have Mateer running around like a chicken with his head cut off and getting strip-sacked by Colin Simmons. We can’t do that.

I’d go the other way. Instead of telling Mateer to go back to playing free, I’d put him in a straitjacket. Put him in a straitjacket with one arm behind his back. Make him play within the structure.

I’d feel much more comfortable with that because at least then he isn’t going to kill us. He might not make those magical plays, but at least Oklahoma isn’t turning the ball over and giving its defense short fields.

That’s what the Sooners have consistently done. And it has to stop.

Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction

There will be 14 combined punts and field goals in this football game. You heard it here first. I’m smashing the under for this game.

I’ve also got Texas winning this football game.

• Final Score Prediction: Texas 20, Oklahoma 9