Sharp or Square: What the Board Tells Us for the Divisional Round

We’re four days away from kickoff for my Hoosiers. Arctic weather in Chicago. Playoff football everywhere. And this is the weekend where the noise starts to fade.

Divisional round football is where the market tightens, the edges get smaller, and you find out very quickly who actually understands what’s happening and who’s just guessing. We’re narrowing it down. We’re listening to sharp calls. We’re tracking line movement. We’re asking the uncomfortable questions. And by the end of this, we’re trying to land on the bets that make the most sense – not the ones that feel the best.

Let’s get into it.

Sharp Calls

Before breaking down the games, this is what kept coming up over and over again from respected bettors and sharp groups. Two games stood out immediately.

The first was San Francisco, especially when the number was at +7.5. That was one of the earliest and most consistent sharp positions. Even with the injuries, even with how banged up the Niners are, that number felt too big in a divisional playoff game with a falling total.

The second was New England -3. That one was harder to wrap your head around at first, but the reasoning was consistent. Elite defense. Low total. And skepticism about Houston’s offense, especially outdoors and especially if Nico Collins can’t go.

Beyond those two, things were mostly split.

There was no big money flooding in on the Bears or Rams. No overwhelming position on either side. The same was true for Bills and Broncos: sharp money showed up on Denver early, but not in a way that created total consensus.

Totals, however, told a clearer story. Smart money showed up on unders across the board. First-half unders. Full-game unders. And patience, especially with numbers that felt like they still had room to drop.

Bills (+1) at Broncos

This is the game that perfectly captures everything uncomfortable about betting on the NFL Playoffs.

From a matchup standpoint, this profiles like an under. Both teams want to run the ball. Buffalo’s run defense is vulnerable. Denver can play man coverage, which the Bills struggle against. Both defenses have been elite in the red zone.

The weather is perfect. And that somehow makes it more dangerous.

By the stats. By the schemes. By the analytics. This should be an under.

Then there’s the historical angle. When a playoff line flips from one team being favored to the other, the team that becomes the favorite (Denver in this case) has struggled badly. It’s a small sample, but it’s enough to make you hesitate.

Denver makes more sense in the trenches. Sean Payton on script is dangerous. The Broncos offensive line has been elite. Their defensive line has an edge over Buffalo’s.

And yet, every time you feel confident, you end up back at the same question: are you really betting against Josh Allen?

That’s why this game feels frozen. Resistance everywhere. No clean side. And that’s why the total might be the sharpest way to attack it.

49ers (+7) at Seahawks

This is a big number. The original +7.5 was even bigger. Especially when the total keeps coming down.

Seattle doesn’t want Sam Darnold deciding this game. Since his turnover stretch, the game plan has been conservative by design. Let the defense control the game. Don’t give short fields. Don’t create volatility.

San Francisco is wounded. Trent Williams is playing on one leg. George Kittle is out. The run game hasn’t been the same without them. But Kyle Shanahan is at his best when he’s scheming with fewer pieces and fewer options.

The Seahawks know exactly what this game needs to be for them to win. The problem is asking Sam Darnold to put up three or four touchdowns in a playoff game.

The under makes sense, and it’s hard to cover big numbers when totals are low.

This profiles as a close, physical, low-scoring game. Something like 24-17 or 24-21. That’s why getting the hook mattered.

Even at 7, it still feels like too many points.

Texans (+3) at Patriots

This is the game that felt easy – until it didn’t.

Houston looks like the better team on paper. Better defense. More explosive offense. A quarterback who can take over games.

Then the injury report hits.

Nico Collins doesn’t practice. Christian Gonzalez returns for New England. The total drops. The line moves. And the sharp money starts pointing in a direction that feels uncomfortable.

This is a low total for a game with two good quarterbacks. And yet, the under makes all the sense in the world.

Houston has struggled to move the ball consistently all season. Take away Stroud’s No. 1 receiver, and that becomes even harder. On the other side, Drake Maye showed something important last week. When the pass game wasn’t there, he used his legs. He didn’t panic. He kept them on schedule.

Houston’s pass rush is elite. That creates opportunities for a mobile quarterback who can step up and escape. It’s not about lighting up the scoreboard. It’s about survival, field position, and discipline.

Once again, the under feels far more comfortable than the side. And it wouldn’t be surprising to see this total keep dropping before kickoff. That being said, Under 41 is our Brass Balls Bet of the Week.

Rams (-4) at Bears

Arctic conditions in Chicago. A California indoor team going outdoors. Matthew Stafford dealing with a badly sprained finger. A Bears team coming off miracle after miracle.

The public is all over Chicago. The weather is the story. The vibes are immaculate. But the matchups are terrifying.

Chicago cannot stop the run. They rank near the bottom in run defense metrics. They’re missing key linebackers. The Rams want to run the ball anyway. Kyren Williams is the engine of this offense.

Even if Stafford’s finger is an issue, this doesn’t have to be a pass-heavy game. The Bears don’t have anyone who can cover Puka Nacua. They don’t have the speed in the secondary to match up.

The first-half under makes a ton of sense. Cold weather. Feeling-out process. Run-heavy scripts.

The full-game total is trickier. The Bears have been slow starters and explosive finishers. The Rams will lean on the run if they get a lead.

It’s painful. It’s messy. And it’s exactly the kind of game where confidence should be low.

Sharp or Square: Divisional Round Leans & Best Bets

Here’s where we ultimately land heading into the divisional round:

• Bills/Broncos Under 46
• 49ers +7
• Patriots -3
• Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Texans/Patriots Under 41
• Rams 1H -2.5
• Rams/Bears 1H Under 24.5
• Underdog Parlay: Bills ML, 49ers ML
• Favorites Round Robin: Patriots ML, Rams ML