Sharp or Square: What the Board Tells Us for NFL Week 9

The more you gamble, the more you realize that some weeks aren’t about picking winners – they’re about dodging traps. This is one of those weeks. The board looks obvious, which is exactly why it’s terrifying.

Ravens (-7.5) at Dolphins

We said it right away: this game feels wrong. Lamar Jackson hasn’t played in weeks, Baltimore’s been living off last year’s reputation, and the public is piling on like it’s free money. The number hasn’t moved, which tells you sharp money is quietly on Miami.

We get it – the Dolphins are inconsistent, but they’re healthy, home, and facing a defense without a true pass rush. If you’re taking the +7.5, you should probably sprinkle the moneyline too. It’s a short week, a tired favorite, and a quarterback trying to find rhythm. That’s a recipe for a classic Thursday night reversal.

Bears (-2.5) at Bengals

Every year, there’s one team the market refuses to catch up on. This year it’s the Bengals – and not in a good way. Joe Flacco’s hurt, Trey Hendrickson’s hurt, and the pass rush is nonexistent. Chicago’s offensive line can bully this group, and Ben Johnson won’t put Caleb in a spot to lose this game.

Under a field goal, the Bears are the right side. Don’t overthink it.

Patriots (-5) vs Falcons

New England’s quietly turned into a juggernaut. The Falcons? Still a weekly medical report. Between Penix, London, Bates, and Harrison, nobody knows who’s playing. That uncertainty’s already baked in – this line should be closer to three.

We’d lean Falcons if they’re fully healthy, but until we know who’s under center, the Patriots are the safer, if boring, side. Not sexy. Just steady.

Chargers (-9.5) at Titans

There’s no team that tests our patience quite like the Los Angeles Chargers. Every year we swear them off, and every year we get sucked back in. This is that week again.

The Titans are down corners, down pass rushers, and down bad. Tennessee’s coaching decisions defy logic – punting on 4th and 4 when you can’t stop anyone. If the Chargers are ever going to look competent, it’s here. We’ll regret it, but we’ll ride with L.A. one more time.

Chad’s Choice: Lions (-8.5) vs Vikings

This was the easiest pick on the board – and somehow, that makes us nervous. The Lions are healthy, rested, and at home, while Minnesota’s trotting out a rookie against a ferocious pass rush. Detroit’s run game can control the clock, and Jared Goff at home has been money.

Chalky? Sure. But sometimes the public’s right. Give us Detroit. Dan Campbell’s team just feels inevitable.

Colts (-3) at Steelers

We tried to ride the Tomlin magic last week and got burned. The rah-rah speech doesn’t fix a busted secondary. The Colts are a machine right now – dominant on the ground, efficient through the air, and built around Jonathan Taylor, who’s quietly making an MVP case.

Chalk has been cashing, and Indy feels like the more complete team. It’s not fun, but it’s the play.

Texans (-1.5) vs Broncos

This line flipped fast, and for good reason: Patrick Surtain is out. But Houston’s defense is legit – DeMeco Ryans has this unit humming, and CJ Stroud has poise beyond his years. The public still sees Denver as hot – we see a regression candidate.

We grabbed Houston early at +1.5. Even at -1.5, we’re not scared. Sharps aren’t either.

Simon Says: Chiefs (-1.5) at Bills

This is our “Simon Says” game of the week. The market can’t seem to price Kansas City correctly. The Chiefs are healthy, locked in, and somehow undervalued. Buffalo’s still living off 2020 vibes – Josh Allen looks lost, the defense is beat up, and Ed Oliver being out matters.

The Chiefs don’t flinch. They don’t panic. They’re playing chess while everyone else is drawing plays in crayon. This number should be three. Take the value.

Seahawks (-3.5) at Commanders

Every trap week needs one game that dares you to take the obvious side. This is it. Seattle’s the better team, top to bottom. But Washington’s coming off an embarrassing prime time loss, and Jayden Daniels could return. That’s where the hook stings.

Still, Seattle’s physicality travels. Sam Darnold’s been steady, the defense is elite, and trusting Washington’s coaching staff feels like lighting money on fire. We’ll hate ourselves, but we’ll take the Seahawks.

Cowboys (-2.5) vs Cardinals

Call this one the Kyler Conundrum. Dallas shouldn’t be laying points against anyone competent, and Arizona’s been scrappy. Kyler’s undefeated lifetime in Dallas, and if he plays, the Cards are live.

Still, under a field goal with the better kicker and the better defense, the Cowboys are worth a lean. Just don’t expect to enjoy it.

Final Thoughts

This week’s board is full of honey traps – lines that look too easy, numbers that refuse to move, and favorites that feel inevitable. But we’ve seen enough of these weeks to know: sometimes you lean into the discomfort.

We love the Lions, the Chiefs, the Colts, and – help us – the Chargers. Just don’t call us when the backdoors open.