Sharp or Square: What the Board Tells Us for NFL Week 17

We limp another 3-2 week into the books, which puts us at 45-35 through 16 weeks – the gambling version of being “up” while still feeling personally attacked by every single loss.

I’m battling sick kids home from college for the holidays. Simon’s battling the urge to bet on all three Christmas games. Between the two of us, we’ve stared at this slate long enough to start inventing reasons to bet Josh Johnson on Christmas morning – which is how you know the NFL has truly lost the plot. Backup QBs. Third-string QBs. A full museum tour of guys you thought were coaching high school by now.

🎄Christmas Day: The Third-String QB Festival

Cowboys (-6.5) at Commanders

This number has moved like the market knows exactly what’s coming: public Cowboys money as far as the eye can see. Everyone will wake up, open presents, open the app, and jam Dallas into teasers like it’s a family tradition.

The issue is simple: Josh Johnson feels like a name you’d see on a preseason depth chart and then never think about again. If you want Washington, you need this number to get stupid: +7.5 or more. Then we can start talking ourselves into a “NFC East game, weird things happen” cope.

Lions (-6) at Vikings

This is the one that makes you tired just reading it. It’s the rematch spot where Detroit has historically been a monster.

But now we’re pricing in a Vikings QB situation that gets shakier by the drive. And the Lions… look, last week was an abject failure in a spot we all wanted to love.

If you’re betting Minnesota, you’re basically betting that 6 points is too many in a divisional rematch and Detroit can’t keep getting priced like a robot. If you’re betting Detroit, you’re betting “the bounce-back blowout” that your heart keeps telling you is coming.

Broncos (-13.5) at Chiefs

This is where the whole “protect the quarterback” argument becomes a thesis statement. Because once Mahomes is out, you’re left trying to handicap incentives and human pride – while the line sits in the two-touchdown neighborhood and dares you to do something irresponsible.

Denver will be featured in parlays on every betting app in America. Which is exactly why taking Kansas City at a grotesque number makes sense… and also makes you feel like you need to go rinse your brain out with mouthwash.

Chad’s Choice: Texans (+2) at Chargers

If you’re fading Herbert, you want to do it in the exact spot where he’s a favorite, not an underdog, he’s facing a defense that can turn the game into a fistfight, and everyone’s riding the “Chargers are hot” narrative.

We’ve seen this movie. We know the ending. Houston’s defense can travel, can hit, can wreck timing, and can make the Chargers play a style of game they do not enjoy.

Simon Says: Seahawks (-7) at Panthers

This is a real zag. The Panthers have been the feel-good team that we love for weeks. Which is exactly why they’ll be the public dog of the week here.

Simon’s angle is Seattle’s defense is steadier, and Sam Darnold has historically handled the “big favorite” role better than your brain wants to accept.

If this number keeps falling because of defensive injuries, you might get a better entry point. If it pops back up to 8, it becomes a different conversation.

Ravens at Packers (-2.5)

Nobody knows who’s playing quarterback. Everyone knows the Ravens vibes are weird. If Lamar sits, it’s Packers or nothing. If Lamar plays, you’re still betting into a team that feels like it’s arguing with itself.

Steelers at Browns (+3.5)

This is the spot we’ve historically ended up on: fade Pittsburgh as a road favorite, take Cleveland at home and hold your nose.

The problem is Cleveland looks like a team capable of quitting at any moment. Nonetheless, the number is the number.

Patriots at Jets (+13)

If you bet on the Jets, you’re betting the spread and nothing else. The Patriots are better in basically every way that matters, and the Jets offense is… a choose-your-own-adventure written by someone who hates you.

Bucs (-5.5) at Dolphins

The Bucs have been a weekly exercise in self-inflicted pain. Miami is hard to trust. This is the kind of game where you make a pick for a pool and swear you won’t risk real money.

Eagles at Bills (-1.5)

This move is confusing on the surface because Buffalo actually has reasons to care – and their run game is a nightmare for Philly. Meanwhile, Philly has less to gain and plenty of reasons to protect bodies.

Josh Allen also has a little “hasn’t beaten the Eagles” history, which is annoying… until you decide it doesn’t matter.

Bears (+3) at 49ers

The Niners just looked perfect on national TV, which is when the market wants to crown them and punish the next opponent.

The Bears angle is simple: extra prep, keep it on the ground, shorten the game, and Caleb can make throws Rivers couldn’t physically attempt without a wind-up and a prayer.

But Purdy’s been on an absolute heater since returning, and betting against him right now feels like stepping in front of a train.

Sharp or Square: Official Week 17 Leans

We’re not locking in a full official card because these numbers are going to move, and the Friday version of us will probably hate the Tuesday version of us.

But if you want the early flag plants:

• Chad’s Choice: Texans +2
• Simon Says: Seahawks -7

We’ll talk ourselves into something even more disgusting by the time the holiday cookies hit.

That’s the job. Still grinding. Still alive. Still trying to get through a week where the NFL gifted us three Christmas games and somehow made all of them feel like a third-string quarterback showcase.