Sharp or Square: What the Board Tells Us for NFL Week 16

We drag another 3-2 week into the books, sitting at 42-33 on the season, which is the gambling equivalent of being up just enough to feel smart and still mad enough to hate every loss. The Rams, Bills, and Vikings kept us afloat. The Chiefs and Packers made sure we didn’t get too full of ourselves.

I’m in Vegas, Simon’s still emotionally concussed from watching Mahomes go down and Cleveland get trucked twice in three weeks, and between us we’ve stared at these Week 16 numbers long enough to start seeing ghosts.

So here’s where we landed: the traps, the sharp sides, the games we want to bet but probably shouldn’t, and the handful we’re already talking ourselves into.

Rams (-1) at Seahawks: Thursday Night Football

The market’s creeping toward Seattle. A couple of books are already at pick ’em, and the early sharp money has lined up on the Seahawks as home underdogs in the rain.

On paper, the “weather edge” is probably overblown. The Rams can actually run the ball and they’re not some finesse-only dome team. Seattle? One-dimensional, run game meh, heavily reliant on their wideouts.

The problem: Sam Darnold has been slipping, and the Rams have been living right – including a cover last week that never felt like they deserved to be 5.5-point favorites. Simon still has the Rams power-rated as the better team and trusts their run game more than Seattle’s, but he also knows he might be way too in love with them after a big game vs Detroit.

Leaning Rams. Not racing to the window if the weather looks gross.

Commanders (+6.5) vs Eagles

Everyone wants to believe the Eagles “fixed it” against the Raiders. Complete performance, scored at will, held a team to 75 yards of total offense. Good vibes, good quotes, good everything.

Washington, meanwhile, yanked Jayden Daniels for the rest of the season and turned the keys over to Marcus Mariota. They bounced back from a blowout loss to Minnesota with a road win over the Giants, but nobody’s exactly sprinting to back them.

This is the classic sharp vs public tug-of-war spot. If Philly truly is a Super Bowl-caliber team, they should steamroll this horrific Commanders defense the same way they did the Raiders. But mobile quarterbacks have historically given the Eagles issues, and Mariota can keep drives alive with his legs.

Simon will almost certainly end up with a little Washington, largely as a ‘fade the Eagles’ hype. I’m fine passing unless this dips hard off 6.5.

Bears (+1.5) vs Packers

This line opened Packers -2.5 and got bet all the way through zero. The Bears pounded the Browns, showed they can win in the cold, and took real confidence from nearly beating Green Bay in Lambeau a couple weeks ago.

If Caleb Williams throws that end-zone ball a beat earlier, we’re probably talking about a Bears outright win in that first matchup, not just a near-miss.

The problem: everybody suddenly loves the Bears. Micah Parsons is out, Christian Watson is out, the Packers looked flat against Denver, and the market has completely overcorrected. Simon’s numbers say these teams are basically equals right now with all the injuries. That means at anything under a field goal, it’s Packer or pass.

My heart wants the Bears. My brain is screaming this is exactly when they crush us. Very likely a stay-away for the contest – or a late-week Packers play if this drifts back toward a pick ’em.

Titans (+3.5) vs Chiefs

Pre-injury, this was Chiefs -11.5. Mahomes goes down, the line falls to Titans -4.5 and has since settled in the -3.5 range.

Simon has Mahomes worth roughly 10 points to the spread, so the math says this probably should be closer to KC -1.5. The value is on Tennessee. The sharp side is Tennessee. The pros have already hit Tennessee.

We still don’t want any part of it.

Kansas City’s offense has been a mess, but their defense is legit. They gave up one touchdown to the Chargers last week and still lost. Backing a Mahomes-less Chiefs team with that offensive line is terrifying; backing Tennessee and Cam Ward isn’t any better.

If you force us: Titans or under. But we’re happy to pretend this game doesn’t exist.

Simon Says: Giants (+3) vs Vikings

JJ McCarthy has turned into Vikings Twitter’s favorite son overnight. Two good games, a big win over Dallas, and suddenly every stat, QBR number, and chart is getting plastered all over the timeline.

He’s been great. The market has noticed.

Minnesota just rolled Washington, then handled Dallas on Sunday night. Now they’re laying a full field goal on the road against a Giants team that keeps finding new and creative ways to lose covers thanks to special teams and defense.

Our numbers say this should be closer to a pick. As bad as people think the Giants are, they’re not three points worse on a neutral than this Vikings roster. This is also a brutal letdown spot for Minnesota: emotional prime-time win, followed by another road game against a desperate opponent.

Simon planted the flag: Giants +3 is the Simon Says play of the week. We’re holding our noses and taking the dog.

Panthers (+3) vs Buccaneers

We sat around waiting for this to hit three so we could jump on Carolina. We got it.

The tickets are mostly on the Panthers, but the line has still moved to Tampa -3, which tells you professionals are hitting the Buccaneers after that blown Thursday Night game. The logic is simple: Tampa is more talented across the board, they’re in a bounce-back spot, and Baker with Evans, Godwin and Egbuka is significantly more explosive than Carolina.

We get it. We also still want the Panthers.

Carolina as a favorite is automatic fade material. Carolina as a home dog at three or better? That’s exactly when we want to back Bryce Young and Dave Canales. The Panthers never go away. They’re tough, they scrap, and Young has been nails late in games – the fourth-quarter comeback numbers back that up.

We’d love +3.5, and it might show up. For now, Panthers +3 is squarely on our radar, again.

Jets (+4) at Saints

Tyler Shough just went from 200-1 to 16-1 in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race and Simon has enough derivatives tied up in that position to make a serious dent in a sportsbook.

Which is exactly why this is the time to fade him.

New Orleans has been playing better, stacked back-to-back NFC South wins, and is now laying four-ish at home against a Jets team in free fall. The Jets don’t know who’s playing quarterback week to week, the front office has given their head coach zero help, and they just fired defensive coordinator Steve Wilks.

And still: we like the Jets.

This is a classic overreaction spot after Shough’s hero game. These are two bad teams in a coin-flip matchup. Saints as more than a field-goal favorite is rich, and we don’t care who’s under center for the Jets – the number is the number. If you can grab +4.5, even better.

Chargers (+1.5) at Cowboys

We talked ourselves into fading Herbert as a dog two weeks in a row. We’ve paid for it two weeks in a row.

Herbert has covered as an underdog by capitalizing on mistakes – Philly handed him opportunities, Kansas City’s offense couldn’t get going, and the Chargers defense stepped up just enough.

Now they go to Dallas, once again as underdogs. The public is all over the Chargers. The professionals are hammering the Cowboys. It’s the exact setup that usually produces regret either way.

The Chargers’ defense has been better, but backing either side for real money feels insane at this point. If we end up involved, it’ll probably be a late-week number grab, not an early commitment.

For now: lean Chargers, but with zero enthusiasm and no contest interest.

Browns (+10) vs Bills

Cleveland just got shredded by Tennessee on the ground, then humiliated by Chicago 31-3. Their only recent bright moment was a weird, clinical win at Vegas where they looked alive for most of the game.

We should love them here. Huge home dog, Bills off their game of the year, and a run game perfectly suited to exploit a defense that suddenly can’t stop anybody. Historically, this is a slam-dunk Browns spot.

The problem: it really looks like Cleveland’s defense has unplugged. If the effort isn’t there, it doesn’t matter what the number is.

At +10.5 or more, we’re probably obligated to sprinkle. At anything less, we’re allowed to listen to our survival instincts. As of Tuesday, we talked ourselves out of making this one of our official five. That’s growth. I think.

Bengals (-1) at Dolphins

Cincinnati just got blanked. Zero points. Embarrassing, unwatchable offense.

Our favorite little trend: since 2020, teams that were shut out the previous week have been quietly profitable the next week. It hit again this season. It’s now something like 30+ winners in that spot, and this week it points directly at Joe Burrow.

The pros are on the Dolphins. The public is back on Burrow. And we’re sitting here thinking: when in doubt, give us the elite quarterback off the worst game of his career.

We’ll likely take the Bengals as a short dog wherever we can get it. Not a “must-play,” but one of the cleaner buy-low angles of the week.

Cardinals (+2.5) vs Falcons

Arizona started the season feisty, stealing that Dallas game and hanging around in most spots. Now? Six straight losses and multiple noncompetitive showings.

Atlanta just pulled off their version of a Super Bowl, and now the market wants us to lay nearly a field goal with them on the road. Even baking in a Drake London bump, Simon only moves this from pick to Falcons -1.

The Cards have no pass rush, the roster is thin, and they could absolutely keep getting blown out. But the number is still the number. We’re not racing to back Kirk Cousins on the road as chalk against anyone.

If we see +3 or better, we’ll be staring hard at Arizona.

Steelers (+7) at Lions

This is the one that feels like a 2024 number in a 2025 season.

Detroit at home indoors is terrifying, yes. Their offense can hang 40 on anyone, especially this version of Pittsburgh’s defense, which has looked better outdoors than it actually is.

But the Lions secondary is busted, and Pittsburgh with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback actually has weapons that can attack it. If he plays like he did against Miami, the Steelers can absolutely keep this close, even in a track meet.

We also know the Mike Tomlin dog story by heart: rah-rah road spot, everyone counting them out, large spread, and somehow they wind up live late.

At +7, we lean Steelers, fully aware they could also get run out of the building.

Jaguars (+3) at Broncos

Everything in our models says Denver -3.5 is the right line. Denver has beaten good teams. Their defense is legit. Bo Nix has looked the part. Jacksonville beats up on bad teams and benefits from schedule noise.

And still: we both want the dog.

Some of it is how Trevor Lawrence looked last week. Some of it is how well Liam Coen has schemed guys open. Some of it is believing the Jakobi Meyers trade opened up the offense. Some of it is pure stubbornness about not crowning Bo yet.

We also think the Jags defense is better than people realize. Feels like a three-point game either way. If you give us a full field goal, we’re pulling the trigger on Jacksonville.

Raiders (+14.5) at Texans

Vegas just got blanked by Philly. Houston is flying, with the best defense in football by our eyes and a quarterback who looks like the future.

So obviously: this is where we strongly consider taking the Raiders.

Late-season, huge underdogs randomly upsetting or covering against high-flying playoff teams is a pattern we’ve seen a million times. Humans overlook bad teams. Favorites sleepwalk. Dogs scratch out covers and the occasional massive upset.

Can the Texans bury them by 20+? Absolutely. But we’ve already seen Vegas make this kind of number look silly once or twice. If this stays above two touchdowns, we’ll probably be holding our nose and grabbing the points – and maybe even tossing them in a gross-moneyline lottery ticket.

Chad’s Choice: Patriots (+3) at Ravens

I’m planting the flag: New England +3 is Chad’s Choice for Week 16.

The Patriots just ripped off ten straight wins and then got humiliated in the second half by Buffalo while half their fan base was busy announcing a new dynasty at halftime. Meanwhile, Baltimore is winning but not convincing anyone – weird vibes, inconsistent performances, Lamar playing hurt, and a team that feels wobbly even when the scoreboard says otherwise.

This is Vrabel as an underdog in a game they absolutely have to have to stay in the division race. It’s a test of whether this Patriots team is real or a product of its schedule.

We know the Ravens have the dudes. We also know they haven’t put it together for four quarters in weeks. I trust Drake Maye to bounce back more than I trust Baltimore to suddenly turn into the 2019 version of itself.

Patriots +3 goes straight onto the card.

49ers (-6) at Colts

Philip Rivers almost pulled off the miracle against Seattle. It was fun. It was weird. It was also filled with throws that looked like shot-put attempts.

The Niners’ offense is humming again. Purdy, McCaffrey, Kittle – when they’re right, it looks effortless. The Colts, on the other hand, want to run the ball, shorten the game, and hide the fact that Rivers can’t drive the ball outside the numbers anymore.

This has classic prime-time trap vibes: everyone saw the Rivers game, everyone wants to grab the points at home, everyone assumes the 49ers are a touch overrated.

Unless sharp groups start unloading on Indy, we’re happy to be boring and lay it with San Francisco before this crosses 7.

Sharp or Square: Official Week 16 Leans

Subject to injuries, line moves, and whatever new chaos the league throws at us, here’s what we’re circling for Week 16:

• Simon Says: Giants +3 vs Vikings
• Chad’s Choice: Patriots +3 at Ravens
• Panthers +3 vs Buccaneers (3.5 would be a gift)
• Jets +4 at Saints
• Steelers +7 at Lions
• Jaguars +3 at Broncos
• Bengals -1 at Dolphins (or better number if it flips)
• Raiders +14.5 at Texans
• 49ers -6 at Colts
• Cardinals if this gets to +3 or higher vs Falcons

We’ll almost certainly talk ourselves out of at least one of these and into something even more disgusting by Sunday. But that’s the job. We’re 15 weeks in, still grinding, still alive, still chasing that one clean 5-0 to nudge us back toward 60%.