Sharp or Square: What the Board Tells Us for NFL Week 15

Week 15 hit us in the teeth before we even got to the board. Simon dragged himself in after the Eagles collapse – a meltdown so profound it should’ve come with a wellness check – and I wasn’t far behind after trying to convince myself the Bears’ misery somehow counts as progress.

So here we are once again: bruised, wired on bad sleep and worse decisions, digging through another week of traps, overreactions, mispriced lines, and the occasional gift.

Here’s how we broke it all down: the spots, the mismatches, and a few places where we foolishly agree.

Buccaneers (-4) vs Falcons: Thursday Night Football

Every model on Earth refuses to quit Atlanta, and every human being on Earth has eyes. The Falcons offense without Drake London? One-dimensional. Predictable. Punished. And now they’ve got a short week after getting shoved around for four quarters.

Meanwhile Tampa may get healthier – Wirfs, Mike Evans – and even a dinged-up Baker Mayfield is more functional than whatever Atlanta is pretending Kirk Cousins 2.0 is supposed to be.

Thursday home divisional games lean chalk. This one screams chalk.

Chiefs (-3) vs Chargers

Kansas City finally hit the part of the season where everyone is screaming the same thing: “They’re broken! They’re done!” And when the public finally buries the Chiefs? That’s usually when the pros quietly dig them back up.

Herbert outdoors in 10° weather with one working hand is NOT the same Herbert who stole the Eagles game. The Chargers survived because Philly handed them opportunities; Mahomes is not going to do that. Ugly? Yes. Scary? Yes. Correct? Feels like it.

Jaguars (-11.5) vs Jets

This number kept slipping toward the Jets, and I spent all day trying to talk myself into taking the trash side. Then I realized: I have no idea who is even playing quarterback for New York.

If it’s Brady Cook again – the undrafted rookie who fumbled and threw a pick on his first two drives – this becomes unbettable. If it’s Fields, there’s a window. But until we know? Pass.

Bills (-1) at Patriots

Ten straight wins for New England and absolutely nobody believes they’re real. Do I think Drake Maye has been elevated by Mike Vrabel? Yes. Do I think they can run on Buffalo’s front consistently? Not sure. Do I trust Josh Allen in freezing weather more than I trust a young offense and quarterback? Absolutely.

But this line is begging us to wait. If we can get Buffalo as a pick ’em or an underdog, why rush?

Texans (-9.5) vs Cardinals

Arizona has only been blown out by NFC West buzzsaws. Everyone else? They hang around. This is a classic buy-low spot after getting buried by the Rams while Houston just exorcised the Chiefs demon.

If this touches 10, we’re obligated – absolutely obligated – to take Arizona. Jacoby Brissett keeps them competitive more often than he doesn’t.

Bengals (+2) vs Ravens

My heart wants the Ravens. My brain wants therapy for even considering it. Everything around Baltimore feels like unraveling: locker room rumblings, injuries everywhere, and Lamar looking like he’s held together by duct tape.

Meanwhile Burrow already torched this secondary a few weeks ago. But it feels too popular to bet Cincinnati – and that alone makes me hesitate.

Bears (-7.5) vs Browns

Zero degrees. Actual zero. The kind of cold where your eyelashes freeze. The Bears live in this weather. The Browns survive in this weather.

Chicago’s defense only gets stops when gifted turnovers – and Shedeur Sanders is starting to settle down, not melt down. At 6.5, this would’ve been Bears. At 7? Maybe. At 7.5? Professionals will take Cleveland. And honestly… that’s the right instinct.

Eagles (-11.5) vs Raiders

The Raiders ending last week broke the internet and half the world’s bankroll. Delay of game, useless field goal, conspiracy theories – the whole carnival.

The Eagles are unraveling, but Lane Johnson returning changes everything. No one in the public wants to bet Philly. That usually means we should. But on a short week after emotional carnage? We wait. This may dip under 10.

Giants (-2) vs Commanders

If misery had an NFL brand ambassador, it would be the Giants. If inconsistency had one, it would be the Commanders.

But with Jayden Daniels expected to return, this is a textbook buy-low spot. Washington is too volatile to trust… but the Giants are too cursed to back.

Rams (-5.5) vs Lions

This might be the best game of the week. Detroit’s secondary is held together by hope at this point. Stafford is shredding both zone and man. The Rams’ run game looks like 2018 reincarnated. And McVay in December is basically an auto-bet.

Simon didn’t want to mush it as a Simon Says… but he loves it. I love it. We all love it.

Simon Says: Saints (+2.5) vs Panthers

Bryce Young… as a road favorite… for the first time in his career… getting 87% of the bets? No. No. Absolutely not.

New Orleans has owned this matchup. Carolina is still intoxicated from beating the Rams before the bye. Simon dove in early and planted his flag.

Chad’s Choice: Packers (-2) at Broncos

Green Bay is quietly becoming the team the NFC doesn’t want to deal with. Fast defense. Healthy receivers. Jordan Love unfazed by pressure.

Bo Nix? Great story. Terrifying to bet as a favorite. This line has bounced from 1.5 to 2.5 all week as pros duel with each other. I’m stepping in.

49ers (-12.5) vs Titans

We have made a sacred pact: Do not bet Titans games. We cannot read them. We will not read them. We are cosmically barred from reading them.

But if you force me? Niners. And fade me accordingly.

Seahawks (-13.5) vs Colts

Seattle destroys bad quarterbacks. Indianapolis right now may not even know which bad quarterback is starting.

Unless Grandpa Rivers actually shows up in full pads – in which case we all deserve jail time – this is Seahawks or pass.

Cowboys (-6) vs Vikings: Sunday Night Football

Minnesota went from being shut out to winning in a shutout. JJ McCarthy has snapped the space-time continuum.

Dallas is the better team, but this number feels rich. The pros hit six and 6.5 immediately. This will likely drop.

Steelers (-3.5) vs Dolphins: Monday Night Football

The Steelers off a massive emotional win. The Dolphins traveling into a literal Arctic blast. Old Tomlin trends say fade Pittsburgh. New Tomlin trends say fade Pittsburgh at home as a favorite.

Miami’s run game is the difference here. If Tua doesn’t have to win it, Miami can win it.

Sharp or Square: Official Week 15 Leans

Here’s the full card we’re eyeing as of Tuesday afternoon:

• Simon Says: Saints +2.5
• Chad’s Choice: Packers -2
• Rams -5.5
• Buccaneers -4
• Chiefs -3
• Bills -1 (waiting for best number)
• Cardinals (if +10 or higher)
• Browns +7.5