Sharp or Square: What the Board Tells Us for NFL Week 14

Fresh off a brutal Giants game and a 2-3 week overall, we did what we always do: sift through the wreckage and try to turn the page. NFL Week 14 is packed with tricky quarterback situations, injuries across the board, and plenty of public overreactions.

Below is how we broke down each matchup: the numbers, the spots, the frustrations, and the few places where we actually agreed.

Lions (-3) vs Cowboys

This one felt like torture. A classic “should-bet Detroit” spot at home… except nothing about Detroit feels right, right now. As I said on the show, their offensive line just isn’t as good… everything surrounding Detroit’s success in every single way starts with their offensive line. With Frank Ragnow gone, Kevin Zeitler gone, and replacement pieces banged up, that interior is getting blown up. And Jared Goff under interior pressure is not the Goff you want.

Dallas, meanwhile, keeps trending up. I didn’t want to bet the public side, but we both kept circling back to the same uncomfortable truth: maybe this just isn’t the Lions team of old. And that made this one nearly impossible to fire on.

Simon Says: Commanders (-1.5) at Vikings

This was the easiest call of the week. We told listeners on Sunday to grab Washington as an underdog because this line was going to move. And it did. Injuries everywhere for Minnesota, quarterback chaos, and Washington expecting Jayden Daniels back. As Simon put it, JJ McCarthy is a train wreck.

That being said, this is our Simon Says pick for Week 14. A rare moment where everything lined up cleanly.

Jaguars (+1.5) vs Colts

I bet the Colts early, but instantly hated it. Simon’s model had it Jags -3, and the historical trends – Jacksonville dominating Indy – didn’t help. The Jaguars are 5-2 ATS as a divisional underdog with Lawrence, and Indy has struggled in this matchup for nearly a decade.

Saints (+9) at Buccaneers

One of the strangest lines of the week. A month ago this matchup was Bucs -3.5 in New Orleans, and Tampa won by 20. Now the number is inflated because of public enthusiasm over Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving returning.

But New Orleans is feisty as a dog in the NFC South. Since 2018, they’re 15-6-1 against the spread on the road in divisional games. Despite this, I have zero feel for this game. Too much quarterback volatility, too many turnovers on both sides. It’s Saints or pass, but I want no part of it.

Chad’s Choice: Jets (+2.5) vs Dolphins

I loved this one at open and still do. The last meeting between these two teams was a meltdown of fumbles, and Miami is a different team in cold weather. Tua completed just five second-half passes last week, while the Jets’ defense has been better since the roster shakeup.

Simon pointed out that Tyrod Taylor is 37-21-4 ATS in his career… good for 63%. The man is simply undervalued. The weather tilts further toward New York. Easy call. Chad’s Choice.

Browns (-3.5) vs Titans

Every sharp model on earth is screaming “Titans”… which is exactly why we know we’re supposed to take the Browns. Myles Garrett must be thinking… this is the week I get five sacks. Cam Ward holds the ball forever and takes unnecessary risks, which is nothing short of a nightmare against Cleveland’s defensive front.

I said out loud what every Browns bettor feels: I put the sound on when they’re on defense… it’s the only way they’re going to win a game. Ugly, but the right side here is Cleveland.

Seahawks (-7) at Falcons

Everything about Atlanta screams tragedy right now. That overtime collapse against the Jets was horrific. Seattle, on the other hand, is elite on the road and strong defensively.

Mike Macdonald is 9-4-1 ATS on the road and 5-2-1 on the East Coast. The matchup, the coaching, the trajectory – all point to Seattle.

Bills (-5.5) vs Bengals

Cincinnati is the public dog of the week. Buffalo’s defense is flawed, but Cincinnati still can’t stop the run, and the Bills just put up 249 yards on the ground at Pittsburgh. Simon called it a “42-point Josh Allen bounce-back type of game.” Hard to argue that.

Packers (-6.5) vs Bears

An emotional minefield. Every fiber of my being is telling me it’s the wrong thing to do. Ben Johnson has the entire city of Chicago believing. I love what the Bears are doing schematically. But Green Bay has dominated this rivalry: 10-2 ATS, 11-1 straight up over their last 12 meetings.

Simon wants to be on Chicago, I want to be on Chicago – but the number and history makes it too painful. I refuse to bet it. I just want to put on my Bears gear, be under my blanket, and enjoy the game.

Rams (-8) at Cardinals

I wanted to bet Arizona until Evan Abrams reminded us that Sean McVay is 25-11 ATS in December. And his history vs Arizona is absurd: undefeated in Arizona ATS as a favorite. Their scheme – especially all the 12-personnel – overwhelms the Cardinals’ linebackers. An autoplay on the Rams.

Chiefs (-3) vs Texans

A full reversal: the Texans are now the public dog. The line moved from 4.5 to 3. I’m going to hold on to the Chiefs with my fingernails. Houston is surging, Kansas City keeps losing close games, but at this number, it becomes a Chiefs bet.

Eagles (-2.5) at Chargers

Herbert had hand surgery, yet the line moved toward L.A., which shocked us. I grabbed Eagles -2.5 on the air. As Simon said, if this was last year, we’d be hammering the Chiefs and Eagles this week. But both teams are flawed. Still, the Eagles are the play.

Sharp or Square: Official Week 14 Leans

• Simon Says: Commanders -1.5
• Chad’s Choice: Jets +2.5
• Browns -3.5
• Seahawks -7
• Rams -8
• Bills -5.5
• Chiefs -3
• Eagles -2.5