Sharp or Square: What the Board Tells Us for NFL Week 11

We went 3-2 with our five favorite picks last week – good, not great, but steady. Thanks to Simon, our Sunday morning conversation led us to pull the Niners and put in the Eagles, a move that helped us avoid back-to-back losing weeks. The lesson? Early-week positions aren’t sacred. Information changes. Injury reports, weather, and line movement all matter.

Jets (+11.5) at Patriots (Thursday Night Football)

Yes, it’s gross. Yes, you’ll hate yourself for watching. But this number’s out of control. New England’s the better team right now, but Thursday night games lean toward chaos and inflated favorites get punished on short weeks.

This one definitely won’t be in our final five, but it’s the definition of a letdown/trap spot.

Bengals (+4.5) at Steelers

This one almost became Chad’s Choice. We both thought the number was wrong – why isn’t this three? I grabbed Cincinnati at +5.5, betting that Joe Flacco and the Bengals’ receivers could torch a shaky Steelers secondary that survives on turnover luck. The line has since dropped to +4.5, which told us the sharps agreed. Two flawed teams, but Cincinnati feels like the right side.

Texans (-7) at Titans

Assuming C.J. Stroud clears protocol, this is a mismatch. Houston crushed Tennessee earlier in the season, and the Titans haven’t found a pulse since.

The Texans can run the ball, and Tennessee can’t stop it. If Jeffery Simmons remains out, it could get ugly – again.

Packers (-7.5) at Giants

Brian Daboll’s gone, and New York’s officially in teardown mode. The Giants can’t stop the run either, and Green Bay can lean on Josh Jacobs to pound them into submission.

The Packers aren’t elite, but they’re good enough to exploit a defense that ranks near dead last against the rush. Big number or not, this is the right side.

Buccaneers (+5.5) at Bills

This line makes no sense. Tampa’s loss last week was ugly, but two fluke runs accounted for most of New England’s rushing yardage.

Baker Mayfield’s missing weapons, but Buffalo’s defense is still reeling from injuries. The Bills are overvalued on name alone – take the points with a gritty Bucs team that plays better than it looks on paper.

Jaguars (+3) vs Chargers

We’ve been here before: the Chargers win, look competent, and sucker us into trusting them. Then they fall flat. Not this time.

Jacksonville’s defense can force Herbert into bad spots, and Trevor Lawrence plays his best football at home.

Ugly? Sure. But ugly wins.

Seahawks (+2.5) at Rams

Seattle’s defense is legit, and they can pressure Stafford right up the middle – his kryptonite. The Rams’ offense is explosive, but their protection’s shaky.

This line dropped from 3 to 2.5, but if it bounces back to a field goal, Seattle’s the sharp side.

Cardinals (+2.5) vs 49ers

The 49ers’ injuries keep piling up, and divisional underdogs with heart are always dangerous. Arizona got embarrassed last week but quietly outplayed Seattle after the early turnovers.

This is a bounce-back, undervalued spot for a team that fights to the final whistle.

Chad’s Choice: Browns (+8) vs Ravens

Baltimore’s been rolling, and the public loves them – which is why it’s time to fade them. The Browns’ defense is a monster at home, and this number’s simply too high.

Dillon Gabriel might not light up the scoreboard, but Cleveland can muck this game up and make Lamar Jackson earn every yard. It’s a divisional slugfest, and 8+ points is too rich to ignore.

Simon Says: Raiders (+3.5) vs Cowboys

Dallas can roll anyone – except when they’re supposed to. The Raiders are still fighting hard for Pete Carroll, and while they looked flat on offense last week, this is a spot that screams letdown for the Cowboys.

Every time Dallas is favored by more than a field goal on the road, they fall short. The Raiders have Brock Bowers back and now he gets to face a Dallas defense that can’t stop tight ends over the middle. Expect a high-effort, gritty cover in Vegas.

Eagles (-2) vs Lions (Sunday Night Football)

Detroit’s everyone’s darling – and that’s exactly when you fade them. Philly’s offense may look messy, but they win tight games and control the trenches.

Jalen Hurts remains calm through it all, and that’s what matters in primetime. The Eagles’ newly-formed defensive line should rattle Jared Goff just enough to cover a short spread.

Sharp or Square Picks for Week 11

Simon Says: Raiders +3.5
Chad’s Choice: Browns +8
Additional Leans: Bengals +5.5, Texans -7, Seahawks +2.5, Buccaneers +5.5, Cardinals +3, Broncos +3.5, Eagles -2

Final Thoughts

The deeper we go into November, the uglier the board gets. Week 11 is all about patience, discomfort, and discipline. Bet the numbers, not the logos – and remember: the sharpest bets rarely feel safe when you make them.