Sharp or Square: Week 7 NFL Betting Insights

Every sharp we know says the same thing: this has been the dream season to bet like a contrarian. Underdogs are printing money, the public is getting crushed, and the books are feasting.

And that means it’s our kind of week.

Raiders (+12) at Chiefs

Let’s start with the Raiders. Every metric, every instinct, and every bit of stomach acid says it’s disgusting. But when Mahomes is a favorite of 7 points or more, he’s 13-24 against the spread in his career. His only two outright losses as a touchdown favorite since 2020? The Raiders. You can’t fake those trends – this is the definition of a long-term winner.

Do we love betting against Mahomes? Of course not. But sharp betting isn’t about love. It’s about holding your nose, pressing “confirm bet,” and praying your Wi-Fi cuts out for three hours.

Browns (-2.5) vs Dolphins

We’re still riding with the Browns over Miami. The pros may be buying Miami after last week’s narrow escape, but that’s exactly when the smart money sells.

The Browns’ defensive line matches up perfectly against Miami’s banged-up front. And yes, Tua’s been saying some weird things in his press conferences. The Dolphins are distracted; the Browns are physical. It’s not pretty, but that’s why we like it.

Saints (+4.5) at Bears

The Saints are getting pro love, and for good reason. The Bears’ short-week hangover is as real as a Soldier Field draft in December. Caleb Williams hasn’t been good on short rest (0-4 in his last four games), and Chicago hasn’t been good after prime time games: 2-7 straight up in those spots.

But this isn’t just about numbers. It’s about maturity. The Bears need to prove they can handle success, not just celebrate it. For a fan base that’s lived on moral victories, this week is about discipline. And if you’re asking us? That’s not a trait we’d bet on yet.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Titans (+7) vs Patriots

This is the Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Titans +7. New England’s off two straight wins and three straight road games, one of the worst spots in football. Tennessee just fired its coach, and while that’s usually chaos, this time the locker room needed it.

The public is hammering New England. The line is inflated. The pros are circling. When 80% of the tickets are on one side, you close your eyes and bet the other. That’s not superstition – that’s math with Brass Balls.

Chargers (-2) vs Colts

We’ve been down this road before: we fall for the Chargers, they break our hearts, we promise to never do it again – then here we are. But hear us out. The Colts are due for regression, and the Chargers’ number is short enough to buy.

Daniel Jones has been absurdly efficient under pressure, but that doesn’t last forever. Justin Herbert’s still capable, and this is the kind of game Jim Harbaugh wins ugly. Sometimes ugly wins are the most beautiful kind.

Lions (-5.5) vs Buccaneers (Monday Night Football)

Dan Campbell’s Lions have become the league’s most reliable rebound story. After a loss, Jared Goff and Campbell are 20-8 against the spread, including 11 straight wins and covers since 2022.

We love Baker Mayfield as a dog – he’s 16-8 ATS in those spots – but this is a freight train versus a speed bump. Detroit’s in a dome, at night, in a get-right game. Goff’s 19-3 as a favorite in prime time. You want to get cute and bet against that? Go ahead. We’ll take the Lions and sleep easy – or at least easier than most Sundays.

Texans (+3) at Seahawks (Monday Night Football)

The Texans don’t get enough credit for how physical they are on defense or how organized they are on offense. Coming off a bye, they’re healthy, rested, and coached by one of the best young minds in football. Seattle, meanwhile, isn’t the fortress it used to be. Since the “Beastquake” days, that home field mystique has faded.

The number opened at +3.5 and we pounced. It’s down to +3 now, but there’s still value. C.J. Stroud is poised, the defense gets pressure, and the trends love this spot: teams with 15 days off heading into a road game are 20-11 ATS since 2003. We’re in.

Wrapping It Up

While these aren’t our official Sharp or Square picks for Week 7, our shortlist for contest plays currently looks like this:

• Browns -2.5
• Titans +7
• Lions -5.5
• Texans +3
• Chargers -2

Minnesota’s still on the bubble, depending on who starts at quarterback. Atlanta’s tempting, especially with Fred Warner out for San Francisco, but we’ll wait for the final injury reports.

We always say it: betting isn’t about certainty – it’s about conviction. And this week, our conviction says fade the noise, fade the comfort, and follow the numbers.