We’ll never complain about a 3–2 week betting the NFL. In this racket, 60% keeps the lights on, the marriage happy, and the squares a little sharper. But how we got there this week? Pure chaos. Early slate pain, late slate salvation, and a reminder that numbers matter more than vibes—except when Baker Mayfield is involved, in which case you get exactly the ride you paid for.
The mistakes we owned
Let’s start with the worst of it: Chargers -5.5
That was Chad’s drum all week, and it was a bad bet the minute the Giants confirmed Jackson Dart as the starter. Everything we flagged as the Chargers’ Achilles heel—mobile QB on money downs, compromised offensive line, a live pass rush—showed up on cue. Dart wasn’t special as a passer, but he didn’t need to be; his legs flipped third and fourth downs, the Giants’ front wrecked protection after Joe Alt left, and Justin Herbert never found rhythm. When you back chalk in a bad spot, you deserve the stomach ache. That one’s on us.
Bucs +3.5 was Simon Says… and still wrong
A blocked punt TD and a clean, methodical Eagles opening script put us in an early hole. Yet even there, we got the quintessential Baker experience: improbable lasers, a 65-yarder from Chase McLaughlin, and just enough chaos to make you believe. Then came the end-zone pick—the kind of swing you can’t afford against a championship-grade offense. The handicap (Tampa’s DL vs. Philly’s run game) had edges; the result reminded us that spotting the Eagles free points is a death wish.
The reads we nailed
Our Brass Balls were Lions -9, and they delivered
Detroit didn’t dominate snap-to-snap early, but they owned the field position and the game state, then blew it open with a Kalif Raymond punt return. Joe Flacco couldn’t move or mitigate pressure; on a fast indoor track, that Browns defense eventually broke. Two notes going forward: Detroit’s profile remains legit—run game, play-action explosives, pass rush waves—but keep an eye on their secondary health. If those corners miss time, it changes how we price them against elite passing teams.
Rams -3.5 was the last one in, Chiefs the last one out
Yes, we beat ourselves up while Kansas City rolled. But the Rams number was stubborn all week despite Colts money, which told us plenty. The game script was ugly for stretches (Stafford had a run of three-and-outs), and we needed every ounce of closing madness: the Colts had ten defenders on the field on Tutu Atwell’s walk-off, and earlier Adonai Mitchell single-handedly swung 14 points with a goal-line fumble out of the end zone and a costly hold that erased a Jonathan Taylor home run. Did we steal it? A little. Did the market glow for the Rams side? Absolutely.
Our final winner was Raiders +1.5 in Chicago
A game only a bettor could love. Four Vegas turnovers, three Geno Smith interceptions (yes, that happened), tipped balls everywhere, and still a cover because the Bears did Bears things in the red zone and whiffed on the two-point try late. The handicap was about pressure on Caleb Williams—Maxx Crosby set the tone with multiple batted passes and a self-pick—and about trusting Vegas’ ground game to move the chains even behind a shaky line. It was ugly, but it cashed.
Big-picture takeaways
Who’s dead?
Tennessee. We kept trying to be cute, and the Titans keep rewarding anyone betting against them. The offense is nonfunctional for long stretches, and even when opponents sputter, Tennessee can’t capitalize. Until the market truly bottoms out, fading them is the square move that’s somehow sharp.
Who’s best?
It’s the Eagles. Four weeks in, they’re the most complete team relative to schedule, with the most bankable identity. After that, choose your flavor: the Rams keep answering tough asks if Stafford’s healthy; the Lions remain a dome buzzsaw; the Chiefs’ defense looks real, and a true field-stretcher unlocks their spacing; the Bills would belong higher if their defensive health cooperated.
Respect the number more than any single box score
Rams-Colts was the case study: public money flooded Indy, the line didn’t blink, and the book told you where the sharp side sat.
Week 5: Early leans we’re circling
Saints as short home dogs vs. the Giants
Dart’s legs were the difference this week, but a second start on the road as a favorite is a different ask—especially if New Orleans can funnel him into throws. We’re odds-sensitive here; anything at +2.5/+3 is interesting.
Bucs +2.5/+3 at Seattle
Tampa’s front (and Vita Vea specifically) just choked off the Eagles’ run game. Seattle wants to major in the ground attack. If this point spread floats to +3, it’s likely a click for us—yes, even after Baker burned us.
Colts catching near a touchdown vs. the Raiders
Indy’s defense just made the Rams work, and that front can stress a Raiders O-line that still struggles to get short yardage without chaos. If the market gifts us +7, we’re not overthinking it.
Chiefs at Jaguars: numbers, not helmets
If +3s reappear on Jacksonville at home, we’ll listen. The Jags’ defense is generating real pressure; if the market steam pushes back to 2.5, we may flip to the KC side. This one’s pure price discovery.
Our scoreboard
- Winners: Lions -9, Rams -3.5, Raiders +1.5
- Losers: Chargers -5.5, Bucs +3.5
- Season to date: 12–8 in contest plays. Another gritty 3–2.
The lesson of Week 4 is the same as ever: don’t fall in love with teams—fall in love with prices. We got punished when we didn’t (hello, Chargers), paid when we did (hello, Rams), and lived to grind another card. See you Tuesday when we turn leans into picks.
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