Sharp or Square: Week 4 NFL Betting Insights

Last weekend we went 3-2 to move to 9-6 on the season. In a week where the board looked gross, that’s a win. Sunday nights don’t always show our true emotions — Chad comes in buzzing, Simon looks half-dead — but that’s the reality of sports betting. The joy is real; the restraint is necessary.

Our goal is always the same: respect the numbers, survive the ugly slates, and avoid chasing. Winning in this game is about consistency, not adrenaline.

Betting Favorites Feels Wrong, But It’s Right

This week, the NFL betting board leans heavily toward favorites. That usually makes us uneasy, but the data and situational edges tell us to embrace it.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks (Thursday Night)

We flagged Arizona early at -1.5, but patience is key. If this flips to Cardinals +1.5, that’s the side. Classic short-week, home-field angle.

Steelers vs. Vikings in Dublin

The line moved four points off Sunday. Pittsburgh opened as a favorite, now catching +3. Minnesota looks sharper on paper, but this is a Tomlin spot through and through. We’ll wait to grab +3 or +3.5.

Our Favorite Week 4 Plays

Chargers at Giants: Chad Loves

We loved this spread opening at -5.5, and still like it under a touchdown. The Giants are switching quarterbacks and still can’t block; Jim Harbaugh has the Chargers steady. Play anything below -7.

Lions vs. Browns: Simon’s Strong Lean

At -8.5, Detroit looks chalky, but indoors on a fast track they’re lethal. Our number is -9.5. Cleveland’s defense is elite, but Joe Flacco won’t keep pace in a dome shootout.

Rams vs. Colts: Buy Low Spot

Indy’s stock is sky-high, but we like the Rams here. Their pass rush matches up well against a vulnerable secondary. If we can get -3, it’s a buy. At -3.5, still playable but less ideal.

Sharp Dog of the Week

Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Eagles: Simon Says

This is the one dog that stands out. Tampa’s defense can exploit Philly’s thin secondary, and Baker Mayfield is willing to push the ball vertically. Add the half-point hook, and it’s classic contrarian value.

The Big Market Puzzles

Chiefs +2.5 at Ravens

Books holding this at 2.5 is suspicious. Mahomes as a dog is historically profitable, and Spagnuolo’s defenses improve every week. We’ll take Kansas City +2.5 even if it feels square.

Jaguars at 49ers (-3)

San Francisco’s injury report is ugly, but Jacksonville’s passing metrics are worse. Trevor Lawrence ranks bottom-third in EPA per dropback without pressure. If Brock Purdy practices well, Niners -3 is short.

Other Notable Games

• Patriots -5.5 vs. Panthers: Pros hit New England, but we make it -4. Value gone past six.
• Texans -7 vs. Titans: Tempting to fade Houston, but we’ll pass. No need to sweat bad football.
• Cowboys +7 vs. Packers: Injury tax on Dallas, halo on Green Bay. Value on Dak as a dog.
• Jets vs. Dolphins -2.5: Miami or nothing. Jets secondary is too soft.
• Broncos -7 vs. Bengals: Bo Nix feasts on bad defenses. Cincy is one of them.

Betting Strategy Takeaways

• Bet numbers, not logos. Chargers under -7 and Bucs +3.5 are price plays.
• Respect market signals. Chiefs +2.5 holding tells us what we need to know.
• Don’t fear chalk. Lions, Bills, and Rams all rate as justified favorites.
• Stay patient. Wait for key hooks (Rams, Steelers).

Final Card Candidates

• Chargers -6 (Chad Loves)
• Buccaneers +3.5 (Simon Says)
• Lions -8.5 (hope for -8)
• Bills -16.5 (Survivor play)
• Rams -3/-3.5
• 49ers -3
• Chiefs +2.5
• Raiders -1

Closing Thoughts

It’s a week loaded with favorites, but that’s okay. September lines are still adjusting to reality, and inflated perceptions are opening value on teams like Tampa and Kansas City. Trust the process, trust the numbers, and don’t be afraid to back the “gross” side when the price is right.

We’ll lock final picks on Thursday, along with Survivor, brass-balls picks, and contest plays. Until then – patience, discipline, and yes, permission not to watch that ugly dog if you bet it.