Sharp or Square Week 2: Our Five Leans, One Brass Balls, and a Rock-in-a-Hard-Place

Week 2 is the overreaction audit. With only one game of evidence, lines whip on thin data, the public chases headlines, and the smartest plays are often the ones you hate to click. After a week of calls, rewatching every snap, and tracking every tick at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, here’s where we land.

Pass/consider: Browns at Ravens (BAL -12)

The spread toggled from 12.5 to 11.5 and back to 12, which reads like sharp Baltimore support. Conceptually, Cleveland’s defense is good enough to tempt you at this size, but early-season, divisional, road dogs of this magnitude are historically dicey. If 13 shows, we’d consider Browns for a sprinkle; otherwise we expect to find better five-pack options elsewhere.

Survivor players: Baltimore is live.

Lean: Cowboys vs. Giants (DAL -5/-4.5)

Yes, it’s public. No, we don’t care. Dallas’ defensive attrition matters, but the functional mismatch does too: a compromised New York offensive line and an ineffective quarterback versus a Dallas front that can still wreck. On offense, Dak was better on film than the box score (drops hurt). Dak has also dominated this matchup over time (13 straight wins, 10–5 ATS lifetime), and there’s even a quirky Week-2 trend: teams that allowed zero sacks in Week 1 cover at a strong clip since 2003—Dallas lands in that bucket. We’ll sweat the first half if New York’s short-rest rhythm pops early, but full game we prefer the Cowboys.

Card consideration: Yes.

Lean: Jets vs. Bills (NYJ +6.5; watch for +7)

Every time +7 appears, professionals scoop it, which tells you plenty. The Jets’ rushing profile and defensive speed match cleanly against a Buffalo front seven and secondary that offered wide lanes and explosives plays last week. Layer in the emotional setup—Bills off a showcase comeback, Jets off a punch-in-the-mouth loss—and the number gives us the out we want late. We’d love +7 Sunday morning when casual money shows; we’ll still play +6.5.

Card consideration: Strong.

Lean: Seahawks at Steelers (SEA +3)

Pittsburgh won a pinball opener where the opposing QB never pushed vertically and still took a beating. Seattle can replicate the pressure piece on defense and should run better into a banged-up Steelers back end. There’s a very real “Tomlin off a 32+ allowed” bounce that points the other way, but the price is the price. At +3 (and even +2.5), Seattle is value.

Card consideration: Strong.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Titans vs. Rams (TEN +5.5)

We’re back on it. The market’s pricing Los Angeles like a comfy teaser leg; we’re pricing a live home dog. The Titans’ path is straightforward: win the line of scrimmage on the interior (Jeffery Simmons can collapse this pocket), let crowd noise bother a less mobile Matthew Stafford outdoors, and give rookie Cam Ward a steadier environment than the numbers said he had last week. On rewatch, Ward’s pocket presence and protection adjustments were better than the result—drops and coaching failed him. Rams ML belongs in a favorites parlay; ATS, we want the points.

Card consideration: Very strong.

Market moved past the buy: Broncos at Colts (IND +1.5)

We hit Colts +3 early; at +1.5 the value edge is largely gone. Still lean Indy schematically (the run game and defensive plan versus a Denver offense that benefited from facing a rookie last week), but the number likely keeps it off our five.

Temperature check: Lions at Bears (DET -6)

We grabbed -4.5 early and sat out the steam. Detroit is the right favorite, but the Lions’ OL looked surprisingly leaky and the Bears—while messy—flashed enough on both sides to create variance. At 6/6.5 we’d rather include Detroit in favorites ML builds than lay it ATS.

The knife fight: Eagles at Chiefs (PHI -1.5)

This is the quintessential Week-2 argument between résumé and roster. The sharp reflex is “take Mahomes as a home dog.” We hear it. We also see an Eagles front that can stress this Kansas City line, Jalen Carter back as a force multiplier, and a Chiefs pass-catching group that, without a peak Travis Kelce, doesn’t punish Philly’s CB2 the way elite rooms do. September Chiefs typically aren’t December Chiefs, and this line flip (from PHI +1.5 Sunday night to PHI -1.5 now) says the market got pulled toward Philadelphia’s trench edge. It’s uncomfortable given the helmet, which is precisely why it qualifies as our… Rock and a Hard Place bet of the week.

Card consideration: Locked.

The debate pile: Dolphins at Patriots (near pick’em)

The pure system angle is “week-two bounce for a team off a 20+ loss,” which is why an early Miami ticket exists. For the five, though, we prefer Patriots or pass: Miami’s right-side OL injuries invite pressure, and if you take away Tua’s first read and speed up the clock, the whole operation sputters. If this flips to New England -1/-1.5, we’ll reassess; flip games are gross. But the handicap favors the home defense.

Number to watch: Bengals at Jaguars (CIN -3.5)

We’re waiting for this to move from -3.5 to -3. At -3, we like the Bengals. At current, Jacksonville is probably the correct (if thin) side. Timing, not loyalty, is the edge here.

Vikings vs. Falcons (MIN -3)

Drake London’s healthy practice reps knocked the line down, but Flores’ pressure packages versus a young QB remain a tough introduction. If Minnesota can manufacture baseline run efficiency and keep McCarthy on schedule, -3 is fair value. Not a must-play, but we modestly prefer the Vikings.

Our five, as of now

1. Eagles -1.5 (Rock-in-a-Hard-Place Hard Rock Bet of the Week)
2. Titans +5.5 (Brass Balls Bet of the Week)
3. Jets +6.5 (monitor for +7)
4. Seahawks +3
5. Cowboys -5/-4.5

• Bubble: Patriots (or pass), Vikings -3.

Parlays, round robins & survivor

• Underdog moneyline round robin: Titans, Jets, Patriots, Raiders, Colts.
• Favorites ML parlay: Cowboys, Cardinals, Rams, Lions, Bills.
• Survivor short list: Cowboys, Ravens, Cardinals. If you’re thinking long-term leverage, this might be your best shot to spend Arizona; if you want sleep-at-night equity, Baltimore fits. Dallas is volatile but the schedule offers few cleaner windows.

We’ll firm up the final five Sunday morning when the last wave of public money hits and inactives lock. For now, that’s our board: a little chalk where the matchup warrants it, a lot of ugly where the number demands it, and two flags planted—one brass, one rock-hard.

Referenced odds are subject to change.