Some weeks follow the script. And then you get a week like this – Rams line flips on a short week, Puka turns into a one-man distraction machine, Josh Allen somehow becomes a smash play against the league’s best defense, and we seriously considered betting the Raiders… after a shutout.
It’s gross. It’s weird. It’s exactly our kind of board.
Let’s get into it.
Sharp Calls
The sharp money was loud and early this week. The pros lined up on Seattle against the public Rams love, flipped me onto the Bears over the Packers, came in hard on Washington against an inflated Eagles number, and have been quietly pounding Dallas while the market still clings to Herbert as an automatic underdog play.
There’s real buy-in on the Giants as a classic pros-versus-Joes home dog, plenty of love on Pittsburgh that Simon ultimately faded, and a weird amount of confidence in Tampa laying points in a spot where our gut likes the Panthers. This is one of those weeks where you either trust the numbers and live with the ugliness, or you sit out and watch other people suffer.
Seahawks (-1.5) vs Rams
The market flipped this from Rams -1 to Seahawks -1.5, and almost every “I’m sharp, trust me” voice Simon talked to is on Seattle, but our stance is simple: if you’re betting this game, you’re backing McVay. His December record is absurd, his late-season prep is elite, and Seattle’s home-field edge has quietly died in exactly this kind of short-week, above-.500 divisional spot.
The Puka noise and travel delays are narrative fluff; the true handicap is McVay versus a Seattle team that hasn’t looked right and is now asking Sam Darnold to cover as a short favorite in an NFC West game. If we play it, we’re taking the Rams as the “public” dog and living with the result.
Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Commanders (+6.5) vs Eagles
Washington +6.5 is our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, and it’s everything we like wrapped into one miserable package. The Eagles just blew someone out, the world decided they’re “fixed,” and yet the line refuses to touch seven despite 80-90% of tickets landing on Philly.
Lane Johnson still being out matters, Jalen Carter’s absence changes how they’ll defend Marcus Mariota, and Hurts’ December ATS numbers – especially against the NFC East – are quietly awful as his tax inflates. Dan Quinn as a divisional dog has been money, the Commanders’ offense looks better with Mariota, and the books plus the pros are both sending the same message: this number is too high. We’re holding our nose and taking Washington.
Bills (-10) at Browns
This started out as an automatic “take the double-digit home dog in the cold” spot with Browns +10, and by midweek we had fully swung around to laying it with Buffalo. Josh Allen has a bizarre but very real profile where he covers against good defenses and stumbles against bad ones, and Cleveland’s unit still qualifies as good even after recent cracks.
The Bills’ run game is one of the best in the league, it travels in ugly weather, and the Browns’ run defense – once their calling card – has been slipping at the exact wrong time while their offensive line falls apart. Add in Buffalo’s historical dominance of this matchup, and our stance is Bills -10 or nothing.
Jaguars (+3) at Denver Broncos
Denver’s on a long winning streak and it feels like they’ve survived on equal parts pass rush and voodoo, while Jacksonville just dropped 48 and finally looks like the offense that’s been teased all year. That combination almost always spells regression for the streaking favorite.
The Jags’ quietly elite run defense is a bad matchup for a Broncos team that lost JK Dobbins and hasn’t really replaced his juice. Trevor Lawrence has been strong ATS coming off big wins, late-season teams that score in the high 40s tend to sustain rather than crash, and Simon genuinely thinks the Jags are being disrespected both by peers and the public. We’re leaning Jacksonville as a live road dog in a spot where Denver’s luck can easily run thin.
Raiders (+14) at Texans
If you want an illustration of who we are on this show, it’s considering the Raiders +14 a serious discussion point a week after they were shut out. Houston is the darling of the moment, having ripped off six straight wins with CJ Stroud looking like his rookie-year self again, and the market inflated them from around -11 to over two touchdowns despite every historical trend pointing toward the dog after a shutout.
The Raiders’ offensive metrics are ugly, their organizational scars run deep, and they’ve been blanked twice this season, but the number is simply too rich in a league where teams bounce back from total embarrassment more often than not. If we get involved, it’s only on Las Vegas plus the points, knowing full well it’s the textbook buy-low, sell-high special.
Simon Says: Giants (+3) vs Vikings
Giants +3 is the Simon Says play this week, the kind of uncomfortable home dog we end up talking about on Sunday with a mixture of pride and nausea. Minnesota just had an emotional, showcase win in Dallas. Teams playing in Dallas then going on the road the next week have been dreadful ATS this season, with the Vikings now stepping outside into the cold as a dome team with a young QB suddenly treated like a top-10 guy.
The Giants’ front has the speed to bother JJ McCarthy in ways Washington and Dallas couldn’t, and the public is absolutely hammering Minnesota while the bigger money shows up on New York. Even with the contest line drifting to +2.5, the story doesn’t change: this is the classic pros vs Joes side, and we’re siding with the pros.
Patriots (+3) at Ravens
Patriots +3 is less about falling in love with Drake Maye and more about betting that Mike Vrabel’s bounce-back profile can hold up against Lamar’s late-season mystique. Lamar is undefeated straight up in Weeks 15 and 16 in his career and has long been a monster in these must-win December games, but his dominance has slipped this season and the Ravens still feel a half-step overvalued off the Bengals win.
Maye’s first real playoff-style test saw him crumble in the second half, and we’re under no illusion he’s suddenly fixed, but Vrabel’s teams typically answer bad losses, and this Patriots roster is more complete top-to-bottom than Baltimore’s. With market resistance at three and Hard Rock Bet flashing 2.5 while others hold firm, our stance is simple: if you get +3, New England is the only side to consider.
Cowboys (-2) vs Chargers
This game started as a blind Chargers play – Herbert as a dog, injury concerns, everyone still talking themselves into him as an MVP-caliber quarterback despite scoring 19 on the Eagles and 16 on the Chiefs. The deeper we went, the more it looked like a Dallas spot.
Dak’s been excellent at home, the Cowboys’ offense actually matches up well with a Chargers defense that needs turnovers and short fields to survive, and LA’s back-to-back emotional wins over Philly and Kansas City scream letdown.
Simon dug into the Dak trends at home off a bad prime-time loss and reluctantly came around, and by week’s end, pros were lining up on the Cowboys while the public held onto Herbert hope. We’re leaning Dallas outright, with the moneyline or short spread both in play if you can stomach backing Dallas in a get-right spot.
Panthers (+3) vs Buccaneers
Carolina +3 is exactly the gross divisional road dog we usually run toward, and the trends make it even harder to ignore: the Panthers are 6-0 ATS off a loss this season and just got absolutely jobbed by a penalty that ended up costing them a chance at overtime in New Orleans.
Tampa, meanwhile, has failed to cover six straight and still finds itself laying a field goal on the road in-division with a defense that hasn’t been able to close out games. Pros are on the Bucs mostly out of “they can’t keep not covering” fatigue rather than matchup conviction. Meanwhile, Bryce Young has quietly been one of the best comeback and late-game QBs in the league over the last two years. Our stance is simple: we trust the pattern more than the perception, which means Panthers plus the points or nothing.
Lions (-6.5) vs Steelers
This looked like the classic Tomlin-as-a-dog spot until Simon dug into the numbers and completely flipped to the Lions side. Detroit has been elite against the spread off a straight-up loss with Dan Campbell and Jared Goff, especially since 2022, and their offense remains one of the most efficient in the league even as the defense has regressed.
Tomlin as a big dog has actually been pretty underwhelming ATS, and taking a banged-up Steelers defense indoors against a Lions team that rarely blows double-digit leads is asking them to win a track meet they’re not built for. It feels wrong to lay nearly a touchdown against Pittsburgh in December, but everything in the matchup says Detroit scores at will while the Steelers chase from behind.
Sharp or Square: Week 16 Official Leans
- Washington Commanders +6.5
- New York Giants +3
- New England Patriots +3
- Jacksonville Jaguars +3
- Buffalo Bills -10
- Las Vegas Raiders +14
- LA Rams +1.5
- Dallas Cowboys -2
- Carolina Panthers +3
- Detroit Lions -6.5
By Sunday, the card will tighten, the numbers will move, and at least one of these ugly dogs will turn into a beautiful loser we complain about for a month.
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (AZ, CO, IL, MI, NJ, OH, TN, VA)
