Sharp or Square: Week 15 Recap, Early Week 16 Leans

Coming out of Week 15 felt like walking through a wind tunnel of injuries, blown leads, wild reversals, and a handful of teams discovering who they actually are. Every window delivered something chaotic. Every result forced a recalibration. It was the kind of slate where confidence evaporated, underdogs swung back, and even the games that felt “decided” found a way to flip in real time.

A week that should have rewarded discipline instead reminded us how fragile every read can be. So we collect the wreckage, sift through the sharp edges, and keep moving.

Chargers at Chiefs

Kansas City had this game sitting on a platter. Up 13-3, in full control, defense smothering Justin Herbert, pressure dictating everything. Then the final 40 seconds of the first half cracked the door open, and everything collapsed behind it.

The Chargers struck with a perfectly layered touchdown to close the half, opened the third with a long field goal drive, and immediately stole the game’s rhythm. What had been a Kansas City mismatch turned into a second-half implosion. Missed tackles. Neutral zone penalties. Drives derailed by self-inflicted wounds.

Patrick Mahomes, already battling a thin supporting cast all year, unraveled behind an offensive line that couldn’t protect and receiving options that couldn’t separate. Two interceptions in scoring territory sealed Kansas City’s fate.

Instead of stabilizing, the Chiefs folded. Instead of finding answers, they exposed every roster flaw that had been lurking beneath the surface all season. A brutal result and a harsher outlook.

Bills at Patriots

Buffalo walked into Foxborough as the better team, the more experienced team, and still found themselves drowning early. Down 21-0, out-gained, out of sorts, unable to complete basic passes, unable to keep Josh Allen upright.

Then the entire game flipped.

Buffalo started leaning on Allen’s legs, the run game punched open lanes, and New England’s early rhythm evaporated the moment they were forced to sit on the sideline. The Bills scored on five straight possessions, dictated pace, and completely suffocated the Patriots’ rookie quarterback once halftime slowed the game down.

The swings were violent: from -2 passing yards in the first quarter to a complete offensive takeover in the second half. Buffalo didn’t just come back – they imposed the version of themselves that terrifies opponents.

It was survival through suffering, the exact emotional roller coaster this team seems built to ride.

Lions at Rams

Everything about the first half pointed toward a shootout the Rams were losing. Matthew Stafford opened with a pick that Detroit instantly turned into seven. Jared Goff was methodical, efficient, and attacking Los Angeles at every level. The Lions’ pace looked unsustainable for any defense.

And then, as if a switch flipped, the second half became all Rams.

The pass game hit full stride, the run game gashed Detroit’s front, and the Lions’ defensive rotation simply couldn’t keep up. Los Angeles generated chunk play after chunk play, completely reversing the yardage gap. Puka Nacua was unguardable. Stafford found every seam. McVay’s adjustments suffocated Detroit’s offense and widened the margin drive by drive.

A rocky start turned into one of the Rams’ most authoritative halves of the season.

Packers at Broncos

Green Bay had two early chances inside Denver territory to seize control, and both ended in field goals. Those points mattered, because Bo Nix played the best game of his young NFL career and completely flipped the script the Packers were expecting.

Jordan Love wasn’t bad – until the game demanded flawless execution. Once Christian Watson left and the Packers were forced into obvious passing situations, Denver’s defense dictated every possession. Love threw two interceptions, one deflected and one disastrous, while Nix carved up Green Bay with surprising poise and efficiency.

A game the Packers should have managed slipped into a matchup where their limits – injuries, red-zone inefficiency, lack of explosiveness – became unavoidable.

Panthers at Saints

New Orleans spent three quarters looking uneven, missing opportunities, and refusing to pull away. Carolina hung around, punched back, and with Bryce Young’s track record in tight games, it felt like another fourth-quarter escape was coming.

But the Saints found something late. Tyler Shough extended drives with his legs, hit timely throws, dragged the offense down the field, and tied the game before orchestrating the sequence that put New Orleans in field-goal range. A quarterback draw, a personal foul, and suddenly the Saints were lining up for the winner.

It wasn’t pretty, but it was gutsy. It also kept New Orleans alive in a season that’s demanded emotional whiplash every single week. Bryce Young continues to struggle as a favorite.

Commanders at Giants

Washington was the right side from the opening snap. Their defense swallowed the Giants early, generated mistakes, and created chance after chance for Marcus Mariota to control the game.

The Commanders never fully slammed the door, inviting New York back into it with a late fumble – but Washington’s defense finished the job.

It was a sharp play we didn’t pull the trigger on. And it hurt.

Sharp or Square: Week 15 Summary

A 2-2 card heading into Sunday night, shaped by swings we saw coming and swings that made no sense at all. The Chiefs evaporated. The Packers stalled. The Rams delivered. The Bills resurrected.

Then, Minnesota secured the win over Dallas to get us to 3-2 in the contest and lock up another positive week.

Now the page turns, because Week 16 hits fast.

Sharp or Square: Early Leans for Week 16

• Carolina +1.5 vs Tampa Bay: Not ready to fire yet, but the identity gap between these two teams is visible. Carolina plays harder, cleaner, and faster at home. Tampa feels disconnected. Watching the market for movement.
• Chicago +2.5 vs Green Bay: Green Bay’s injury pile is getting heavier, and the Bears’ run game matches up beautifully here. Early money already nibbling at Chicago, and the setup feels right.
• Chargers +1.5 at Dallas: Herbert as a dog remains one of the most profitable angles on the board. Indoors. Clean conditions. Momentum building off the Chiefs upset. Wouldn’t be surprised if this flips.
• New England +2.5 at Baltimore: The Ravens continue to sputter. Something is off offensively, and New England’s defense can drag this into the mud. Taking the early number before the public piles onto Baltimore.