Sharp or Square: Week 15 NFL Betting Insights

Some weeks follow the script. And then you get a week like this –  somber Joe Burrow press conference psychology, terrifying weather forecasts, and the annual reminder that the sports-media universe contains some of the strangest Hurts-related takes known to mankind. Still, we managed to carve out a betting board we feel shockingly comfortable with.

Let’s get into it.

Sharp Calls

The pros came in heavy – and early – this week. Judging by the calls Simon took, the respected money is clustered around:

• Falcons +5.5 (TNF)
• Patriots +1
• Rams -6
• Packers -2.5
• Chiefs -5.5
• And yes… the Bengals +2.5

But the calls were all over the map in certain spots. The Bears-Browns game is wildly split. The Raiders have real buy-in from pros who simply think the Eagles are exhausted. And oddly, the Saints – despite a number that screams “bet me” – aren’t getting as much sharp love as expected.

This is one of those weeks where the market is loud, the wise guys are louder, and the underdogs are begging to be adopted.

Chiefs (-5.5) vs Chargers

Early in the week, this was shaping up to be a classic Herbert-as-an-underdog play. But then reality intervened: Justin Herbert has one functioning hand, his offensive line resembles a joint garage sale, and the game is being played outdoors in December.

In normal circumstances, we blindly take Herbert plus points – his track record is that good. But this isn’t normal. The Chargers’ receivers can’t separate, their protections are collapsing, and the Chiefs’ pressure packages are perfectly built for this version of Los Angeles.

Kansas City has lived on the wrong end of variance for two months. That doesn’t last forever. Simon and I both moved on Kansas City early and feel good – maybe too good – about it.

Bills (-1) at Patriots

This is a bet on Josh Allen, period.

The entire week’s discourse centered on the Patriots’ underlying metrics, Vrabel’s absurd post-bye record, and the idea that New England is peaking at the right moment. And all of that is true. But even with the trends lining up on the Patriots’ side, the matchup issues remain: offensive line holes, a declining rush defense, and a quarterback whose ATS magic vs. Buffalo isn’t built to sustain forever.

The Bills already gave one away to New England earlier this season. Buffalo’s run game travels well, Allen’s splits as a short favorite are elite, and this is essentially a playoff game for his team.

Cardinals (+9.5) at Texans

If this number touches 10, I’ll get involved. The wise guys already have.

Arizona is a mess, the locker room may be slipping away, and they’ve been beaten convincingly in back-to-back weeks. But the Texans as a large favorite remain an unproven commodity, and CJ Stroud unders have been printing: 10-3 to the under this season, 17-5 lifetime. Take the big points in these games if you can get them.

Bengals (+2.5) vs Ravens

Two teams spiraling in opposite emotional directions. Joe Burrow gave a press conference so somber that the number literally moved mid-interview. Meanwhile, Lamar and the Ravens feel like a team waiting for its identity to return but never quite grabbing it.

Burrow as a dog is one of the best bets in football. If this touches +3.5, it becomes a serious contest conversation.

Browns (+7.5) at Bears

This is who we are on this show: we back Cleveland as an underdog in the cold against an inexperienced quarterback.

Weather will be brutal. Both teams will run constantly. The Browns defense just laid an egg vs Tennessee, but this matchup favors them far more – and the spot is historically unkind to Chicago: teams coming off a game against Green Bay tend to crater ATS the following week.

We don’t love it. We don’t feel good about it. But this is our kind of misery.

Rams (-6) vs Lions

This was one of Simon’s “I’m saying this quietly so you don’t hear it” games on Tuesday.

The Lions’ secondary is the worst matchup imaginable for Matthew Stafford in his current form – because Stafford is thriving against man coverage and can absolutely shred zone if Detroit tries to switch. The Rams’ 13-personnel looks are causing defenses hell. The Lions’ pass defense is one of the most exploitable in the league.

Add in McVay’s December dominance and Detroit’s slide, and everything points to Los Angeles.

Saints (+2.5) vs Panthers

We hate fading the Panthers, historically one of our favorite buy-low teams. But the number, the matchup, and Bryce Young’s lifetime record as a favorite all point the same way.

New Orleans has been atrocious at home as a dog – shockingly bad – but Carolina hasn’t shown they can capitalize on that. This is a trench game, a coaching-stability game, and a script-writing game. The Saints check more boxes.

Saints +2.5 was tabbed as Simon Says for this week on our Tuesday show.

Packers (-2) at Broncos

We finally saw the Packers look like the team their analytics profile has hinted at all season. Jordan Love shredded Chicago, the receivers are back, the defensive speed showed up, and Denver is stepping into a quietly bad historical spot for teams with long winning streaks suddenly becoming home underdogs.

Green Bay should be -3. This is one of the cleanest reads on the board. It’s also Chad’s Choice for Week 15.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Vikings (+6) at Cowboys

This is where we plant the flag. Dallas is inflated. Minnesota’s defense is surging. And even with QB concerns, Kevin O’Connell has shown he can manufacture enough offense to stay inside a number against teams who struggle to adjust mid-game – which Dallas does.

The public is hammering the Cowboys. The matchup says otherwise. This is our Brass Balls Bet of the Week.

Sharp or Square Week 15 Picks

• Brass Balls Bet: Vikings +6
• Simon Says: Saints +2.5
• Chad’s Choice: Packers -2
• Rams -6
• Bills -1

These are the games most likely to end up in our final five on Sunday, but stay tuned and be sure to check back in before kickoff for the official card.