Sharp or Square: Week 14 Recap, Early Week 15 Leans

Coming off a 3-2 start in the first week of the new Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook contest, there was plenty to feel decent about and plenty that felt like the same old heartbreak. Jacksonville, New Orleans, and the Rams were never really in doubt. Cleveland and the Jets reminded me why nothing in this league ever comes easy. And after watching another slate where weather, injuries, and wild swings shaped almost every game, there’s zero time to sulk. We dive right back in.

Colts at Jaguars

This one broke our way from the moment it kicked off. Jacksonville looked composed, balanced, and finally unlocked in a way they haven’t been all season. Trevor Lawrence delivered some of his cleanest work early, including the kind of touch throws around the end zone he usually fires through a brick wall. It didn’t hurt that Daniel Jones went down, turning an already favorable matchup into a runaway.

Jacksonville had command in the rain, leaned on Etienne, and capitalized immediately after Jonathan Taylor’s fumble. It felt over before halftime. And even with Lawrence missing a few throws in the weather and completing just over half his passes, he made every key play when the game required it. Not the kind of win to overreact to, but enough to remind you why this roster keeps teasing its ceiling.

Titans at Browns

A miserable result and a miserable watch. Cleveland’s defense – supposedly the bedrock of this team – came out flat and never tightened. Tennessee bullied them from the first drive. They racked up early yardage, hit explosive plays, and completely controlled the tempo.

Shedeur Sanders put up a monster stat line, but it was Tony Pollard who truly changed the game. Long runs, punishing yards, and that 65-yard scoring burst swung the entire pace. Cleveland had opportunities to pull away early and failed. Once momentum tilted, they couldn’t get it back. A bad read from us, a worse performance from Cleveland, and another game that confirms Tennessee is simply a team we can’t get right.

Dolphins at Jets

This one was dead on arrival. Miami walked straight down the field for two early touchdowns without resistance, then cashed in immediately off a Jets turnover. Down three scores before the first quarter even stabilized, everything hinged on Tyrod Taylor. And once he went down, the Jets never had a chance.

Brady Cook stepped in and struggled from his first snap. A fumble, a red-zone interception, and zero rhythm completely stalled the offense. Even when Miami looked like they were trying to sit on the lead, the Jets couldn’t generate a single spark. By halftime, this was the first game off my multiview.

Saints at Buccaneers

The Saints were live from the opening minute, and the weather played right into their hands. Heavy sideways rain turned the game into a field-position grind where Tyler Shough’s legs became the difference. Critical scrambles, two rushing touchdowns, and perfect situational throws kept New Orleans ahead despite the messy conditions.

Tampa Bay never found a rhythm. Their passing game stalled, their receivers couldn’t finish routes, and multiple failed fourth-down attempts killed any chance of momentum. New Orleans played with toughness on both sides of the ball, got the key turnover early in the second half, and simply controlled the game from that moment on. It mirrored their first matchup with Tampa almost beat for beat.

Rams at Cardinals

Sometimes the obvious side is the correct side. Despite late money pouring in on Arizona, the Rams dominated from the moment they got the ball. Matthew Stafford operated at full efficiency – perfect early, sharp on every level of the field, and entirely unbothered by anything the Cardinals attempted defensively.

LA scored on every first-half drive and racked up more than 330 yards before the break. When a team averages over nine yards a play in a half, you already know how the afternoon ends. A complete mismatch and a well-timed grab for us.

Bengals at Bills

The snow alone made this one worth watching. The game itself turned into a full-blown circus in the fourth quarter. For most of the afternoon the Bengals were the right side – moving the ball easily, capitalizing on Buffalo’s coverage issues, and controlling the pace. But then came the avalanche.

A long Josh Allen touchdown run, a pick-six, another interception, and a fourth-down Buffalo touchdown flipped the entire game in minutes. Cincinnati still managed to cover the spread, but only after weathering one of the most chaotic sequences of the season. Pure madness and pure entertainment.

Steelers at Ravens

We abandoned our long-standing habit of sticking with Pittsburgh as a divisional underdog – and paid for it. The Steelers opened aggressive, explosive, and fearless. Their passing game attacked downfield, their quarterback scrambled for critical plays, and their receivers carved up a Baltimore defense that looks nothing like last year’s version.

Baltimore never found rhythm, never generated consistent pressure, and continues to look unsteady across the board. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, did everything we historically expect from them in this spot. A mistake by us, plain and simple.

Bears at Packers

Another Bears-Packers game, another emotional gut punch. Chicago looked lost in the first half with just 71 yards. But the second half told a different story as they leaned on the ground game, stacked a long 17-play touchdown drive, and looked fully capable of stealing it late.

But Green Bay executed when Chicago didn’t. Missed tackles, missed opportunities, and a brutal late-game interception from Caleb ended what could’ve been a signature win. Chicago’s fight was admirable. The final execution was not.

Sharp or Square: Week 15 Early Leans

Nothing locked in yet, but here’s where the early numbers pulled us:

• Buffalo -1.5 at New England: leaning Bills but wary of how sticky this Patriots team can be.
• Tampa Bay -4.5/-5.5 vs Atlanta: early buy on Tampa depending on Drake London’s status.
• Rams -4.5 vs Detroit: could climb; waiting for market movement.
• New Orleans +2.5 vs Carolina: watching for a better number.
• Minnesota +6 at Dallas: ugly to stare at, but value sits on the dog.
• Denver +2.5 vs Green Bay: early grab if the number holds, but might flip to Packers if they become a dog.