Sharp or Square: Week 14 NFL Betting Insights

There are episodes where everything feels predictable, and then there are episodes like today – where the show turns into a blender of football takes, family stories, and a surprising amount of debate about accents. Somewhere between Matt Mitchell announcing the new contest rules and Simon getting buried by professional bettors, we still managed to settle on a slate of games I actually feel good about.

Sharp Calls

The pros pounced on Simon this week. Hard. The board lit up with sharp money on Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Arizona, Dallas, and a surprisingly aggressive push on Minnesota. I don’t see it with Minnesota, and Simon doesn’t either, but the market clearly does.

Where the calls aligned with us:

• Saints +8.5
• Jets +3
• Browns -3.5

Calls were fairly split on Texans-Chiefs. And for the first time in a while, the pros were emphatically against the Eagles with the Chargers, which always puts Simon in a strange emotional place.

Washington (+1.5) at Vikings

Earlier in the week, Washington was the strongest position on the board. That confidence has softened as the quarterback picture has shifted. Washington is doing everything it can to slow down Jayden Daniels’ return, while he’s doing everything he can to get back on the field. It’s messy.

Even with a limited practice designation for Daniels, the market has moved toward Minnesota, driven mostly by pro bettors who love the matchup for the Vikings’ defense. I still prefer Washington. If Minnesota ends up with a quarterback unable to push the ball downfield, Washington becomes even more attractive at anything north of +2.

Colts (-1.5) at Jaguars

I began the week leaning toward the Colts, but the more we worked through this matchup, the more the concerns piled up. Daniel Jones’ injury limitations matter here. His own description of his lateral movement was enough to send me into full retreat.

Jacksonville has very clear matchup advantages: pressure opportunities against an immobile quarterback, a defensive line that can dictate the game, and a coach who has over-performed relative to his roster.

Simon helped push me the rest of the way. This is a Jaguars spot.

Jets (+3) vs Dolphins

I made the Jets my early-week choice at +2.5, and as soon as +3 appeared, I grabbed more. The logic hasn’t changed: New York’s defense matches well, Miami’s defense is vulnerable, and Tyrod Taylor continues to outperform expectations.

What has changed is the weather. Early forecasts called for a storm; now it looks clear and cold. That swings things toward Miami’s comfort zone.

At +3, the Jets remain a play – but with the awareness that the positive early-week conditions have evaporated.

Titans (+3.5) at Browns

This one feels familiar. Every time we trust Cleveland at home against an overmatched quarterback, it pays off. And even though professional bettors hit Tennessee early in the week – moving the line dramatically – the core matchup still favors Cleveland.

The Browns defense at home is different. The pass rush is different. The way they force the game into long, ugly third downs is different.

Cam Ward has improved, but improvement doesn’t equal readiness for Myles Garrett on the road in winter conditions. With snow and wind in the forecast, the matchup tilts even further toward Cleveland. This remains one of my strongest positions of the week.

Seahawks (-7) at Falcons

This is a split decision between Simon and I. I understand why the pros like Atlanta – big number, home underdog, constant close games – but without Drake London, the Falcons lose the only receiver who forces defenses to adjust.

Seattle has limitations, but they’re far more stable offensively. Atlanta has been surviving on variance. Seattle has been surviving on structure. For me, that’s a meaningful difference, but not enough to put it in our contest mix. Too many unknowns, not enough leverage.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Ravens (-5.5) vs Steelers

This is the rare moment where we’re fading a Mike Tomlin spot. We don’t do it lightly. But everything about this matchup points to Baltimore.

Pittsburgh’s defense is aging quickly, and it shows on third downs and late-game possessions. Offensively, the inability to create anything more than short, shallow completions limits ceiling and invites long droughts. This Ravens team, even in its inconsistent form, can exploit that.

Lamar Jackson isn’t 100%, but the Ravens don’t need perfection. They need competence, and the Steelers have struggled to generate enough offense to capitalize on Baltimore’s flaws.

This is Baltimore’s game to control, and we’re making it our Brass Balls Bet of the Week.

Bills (-5.5) vs Bengals

This game feels like a trap no matter which side you stand on. Buffalo’s defense has glaring holes. Cincinnati’s defense has its own. Both offenses match up well against the other’s weaknesses.

The weather could ultimately push this into Buffalo’s favor. If conditions tilt toward ground control, the Bills gain the edge. But I’m not ready to treat this as a marquee pick. Not with the volatility on both sides and the line dancing between numbers all week.

This one will wait until Sunday.

Rams (-7.5) at Cardinals

We’re aligned on this one. Arizona can fight, and Jacoby Brissett can absolutely backdoor a cover if you let the game linger, but NFC West games against Arizona tend to follow a pattern: the Cardinals hang, then collapse.

The Rams are coming off their worst loss of the season – a perfect setup for a rebound under Sean McVay. When this team responds, it responds with force. Against a defense that has given up 40+ to divisional opponents multiple times already, the Rams are simply too strong.

This remains one of our favorite favorites.

Chiefs (-3) vs Texans

At some point, variance has to reverse. Kansas City cannot continue losing every single one-score game. This number is finally reasonable: a home field -3 for Mahomes in a must-win spot.

I understand the appeal of Houston. They’re desperate too. Their defense is outstanding. They match up well schematically. But counting out Mahomes at home at a field goal is a line I am not willing to cross.

This is a Chiefs play for me – and one I am comfortable taking a stand on.

Sharp or Square Picks: Week 14

Here’s where we’re leaning heading into the weekend:

• Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Ravens -5.5 vs Steelers
• Jaguars +1.5 vs Colts
• Jets +3 vs Dolphins
• Commanders +1.5 at Vikings
• Browns -3.5 vs Titans
• Chiefs -3 vs Texans
• Rams -7.5 at Cardinals