Somehow, we’re already staring down NFL Week 11 – and it feels like the season’s moving at warp speed. The games mean more, lines are getting sharper, and every Sunday feels heavier.
We say it every year: football season goes by way too fast.
Sharp Calls
This week’s Sharp Calls began with a twist – respected pros pounding the table for the Rams. Early in the week, we leaned Seattle, but the more we heard, the more the evidence lined up for Los Angeles. That’s now our Brass Balls Bet of the Week – and we’re proud of it.
Elsewhere, the calls came in heavy on Carolina and Buffalo. The Panthers, the pros argue, are catching too many points against an exhausted Falcons team. The Bills, meanwhile, are supposedly “due” for a Josh Allen bounce-back performance. That may be true, however, Simon still leans Tampa Bay – but with Baker Mayfield hobbling and the Bucs’ offense out of sync, he’ll be watching and waiting before making that commitment.
Bengals (+5) at Steelers
Quiet line, loud opinion. We grabbed Cincinnati early at +5.5 – and we’re glad we did. Joe Flacco looks poised, the Bengals’ receiving corps is elite, and Pittsburgh’s secondary has become a liability. We know Mike Tomlin thrives as an underdog, but as a home favorite after a loss? History says fade him.
The Steelers’ offense isn’t healthy, the defense is worn down, and Flacco’s lifetime 9-4 ATS record versus Tomlin gives us confidence. Not our heaviest play, but it’s a solid position with a key number intact.
Texans (-6.5) at Titans
We were patient, waiting for this number to drop below seven, and it finally did. Even with Davis Mills likely under center, Houston’s defense should dominate. The Titans can’t score, can’t protect the quarterback, and can’t stop anyone on the ground.
Yes, sharp money hit Tennessee when CJ Stroud missed practice, but that’s noise. Houston’s defensive front can cover this number almost single-handedly. Cautious play, not a contest lock – but we’re holding it.
Packers (-7) at Giants
Jameis Winston’s back under center, and he’s somehow become a mix of quarterback, stand-up comic, and Broadway performer. His “Hamilton” press-conference cameo was legendary – but that doesn’t make him a bet.
The Packers haven’t covered as a touchdown favorite all season, and the public’s all over the Giants. Green Bay’s defense should make Jameis’ improvisation act a short one. We’ll pass on the emotion – and the turnover roulette – this week.
Buccaneers (+5.5) at Bills
Have we leaned too far into Baker Ball? Maybe. Without Bucky Irving, Tampa’s run game – and its entire play-action identity – has evaporated. Add in a possible knee issue for Baker, and the magic’s gone.
Allen is 13-6 ATS in his career after scoring 16 or fewer points the week prior, and Buffalo’s in classic rebound territory. We still love Baker as a dog, but this week, something feels off. If new injury info drops, we’ll reassess. Until then, it’s a stay-away.
Jaguars (+2.5) vs Chargers
Every instinct screams fade the Chargers, but Trevor Lawrence’s recent play makes that tough. The Jags’ defense is coming off an emotional collapse, and that’s rarely a buy signal. Still, we like the setup at +3 if you can get it – not a conviction pick, but a valuable lean.
Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Rams (-3) vs Seahawks
We’re standing tall on this one. McVay versus Seattle has been a goldmine: 11-2 ATS since 2019. Stafford’s 5-0 straight up in the matchup, and the Rams’ discipline (zero penalties last week) shows how in-sync they are right now.
Seattle’s weakness defending tight ends lines up perfectly with the Rams’ heavy multi-TE usage. The public loves the Seahawks. The professionals love the Rams. So do we. Rams -3 is our Brass Balls Bet of the Week.
Cardinals (+3) vs 49ers
Jacoby Brissett’s steadiness gives Arizona life. Even without Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride’s emergence keeps this offense balanced. San Francisco’s pass rush has cooled, and defensively, they’re softer up the middle.
The number alone makes Arizona worth a play. It’s a gross bet, but that makes it sharp.
Chad’s Choice: Browns (+7.5) vs Ravens
We hit +8.5 early, but still love the Browns above seven. Cleveland’s defense is ferocious at home, allowing 30% fewer points and rushing yards than on the road. If Lamar’s knee really is barking, this could be ugly.
Myles Garrett is the great equalizer, and the dog pound will be loud. The pros are in agreement: Browns or bust.
Broncos (+3.5) vs Chiefs
We wanted to make this Simon Says this week, but couldn’t quite get there. Denver’s defense has quietly been one of the league’s best since midseason, and Sean Payton teams usually bounce back after ugly offensive showings. Still, Mahomes off a bye is a dangerous fade. We’ll lean Broncos +3.5, but lightly.
Eagles (-2.5) vs Lions (Sunday Night Football)
The public loves Detroit, but this is exactly where Philly thrives – under a cloud of drama. Jalen Hurts looks composed, the defensive line is deep again, and Nick Sirianni somehow keeps winning.
Goff indoors? Dangerous. Outdoors, on back-to-back road games? Not so much. We’ll take the more proven team at home.
Raiders (+3.5) vs Cowboys (Monday Night Football)
This one’s not for the faint of heart. The pros want nothing to do with it, but we can’t shake the feeling the number’s too high. Dallas has struggled all year as a big favorite, and the Raiders’ pass rush – led by a fired-up Maxx Crosby – can keep this close. It’s ugly, uncomfortable, and exactly the kind of side that usually covers.
Panthers (+3.5) at Falcons
Sharp money pounced on Carolina for good reason. Atlanta’s coming off an overtime game overseas – a scheduling death sentence – and their offense remains a mystery. The Panthers are ugly, yes, but motivated. Ugly dogs cover. Carolina makes the card.
Sharp or Square Picks: Week 11
Our shortlist heading into the weekend:
- Rams -3 vs Seahawks (Brass Balls Bet)
- Browns +7.5 vs Ravens (Chad’s Choice)
- Bengals +5 at Steelers
- Texans -6.5 at Titans
- Panthers +3.5 vs Falcons
- Cardinals +3 vs 49ers
- Eagles -2.5 vs Lions
- Raiders +3.5 vs Cowboys
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