Sharp or Square: Week 10 Recap, Early Week 11 Leans

If you watched any football at all this weekend, you might still be trying to process what happened. For bettors, the madness started early and didn’t stop until late Sunday night. By the time the dust settled, we were 2-2 heading into Monday, equal parts relieved and exasperated. The board was littered with bad beats, brilliant coaching, and questionable quarterback play. Let’s get into it.

Baltimore Shows Why Patience Pays

We’ll start where we got it right: Baltimore. We backed the Ravens at -3.5 because, as we’ve been saying for weeks, JJ McCarthy isn’t ready to lead a team through adversity. His early touchdown drive looked sharp, but once the adrenaline wore off, he became the player we expected – hesitant, inaccurate, and rattled by Baltimore’s pressure. Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, reminded everyone why experience matters. He started slow, found his rhythm, and eventually dismantled a Vikings team that committed eight false starts – at home. That’s not nerves; that’s a team getting bullied.

The Ravens’ win wasn’t pretty, but it validated what we preach every week: trust the fundamentals. McCarthy’s hype was inflated. Baltimore’s defense was real.

Vrabel’s Masterclass

Our worst read came in Tampa Bay. The line didn’t move all week, and every sharp voice in the room was waving red flags. We ignored them. That’s on us.

What unfolded was a Mike Vrabel clinic in coaching composure and clock management. Facing Tampa’s veteran defense, rookie Drake Maye played like a young Carson Wentz – reckless but electric. He made just enough big throws to remind you why he’s special, including a dart in the end zone that broke the game open. The real star, though, was running back TreyVeon Henderson, who ripped off a 69-yard touchdown run so fast he had time to look at the sideline mid-sprint and ask whether he should score or slide.

That moment said it all: New England is disciplined, confident, and terrifyingly efficient. Tampa, meanwhile, looked lost schematically. Todd Bowles’ defense – once a strength – was gashed repeatedly by a rookie running back who’d been silent most of the season.

The Dolphins Dream Spot

If you listened last week, you heard Simon pounding the table for Miami +9.5. He saw something that most bettors missed: a perfect situational spot.

The Dolphins didn’t need Tua to win; they needed to run. Devon Achane responded with 174 rushing yards and made Buffalo’s defense look like they were in slow motion. Tua only threw 21 passes all game because he didn’t have to. Every time Josh Allen looked poised to rally, he found new ways to implode: redzone picks, missed reads, bizarre fumbles. It was the same pattern we’ve seen all season: flashes of brilliance from Allen surrounded by long stretches of dysfunction.

Miami, on the other hand, looked like a team that knows exactly who it is at home. The win wasn’t fluky – it was a statement. And yes, Simon gets his flowers for that one.

Arizona, the Lost Cause

Then there were the Cardinals. We loved them at +6.5. We shouldn’t have. When you’re down 21-0 in the first quarter, your bet is already dead. Jacoby Brissett looked immobile, the offensive line forgot its job description, and Seattle’s defense turned into a touchdown factory. It happens – but it’s painful when you can spot the loss before halftime. Some games deserve a postmortem; this one deserves a burial.

The Ones That Got Away

We also had games that made us look smart… and stubborn. We talked all week about the Texans and the Jets – two ugly, undervalued underdogs that fit our model of “betting on discomfort.” Both won outright. We didn’t put them in the final five. That’s what stings. Houston, especially, was a roller coaster: down 29-10, then ripping off 26 fourth-quarter points to stun Jacksonville. It was classic Jags – everything fine until suddenly it wasn’t.

And how about those Jets? We said it wasn’t a bet on them, but a bet against Dillon Gabriel. We were right. They won despite Justin Fields completing only six passes. Sometimes that’s enough when your special teams score twice and the opponent collapses.

The Stafford Renaissance

Before we sign off, we have to tip our caps to Matthew Stafford. Four touchdowns, zero picks, and total control against a 49ers defense that looked shell-shocked. At 37, he’s playing the best football of his career – commanding, calm, unbothered. There’s a reason he’s creeping into MVP contention. We said before the season that if the Rams stayed healthy, they’d be dangerous. Right now, they’re terrifying.

Sharp or Square Picks: Early Week 11 Leans

We head into next week with our eyes on some juicy dogs: Cleveland +8.5 against Baltimore, Jaguars +1.5, Broncos +3.5, Arizona +3 if you can stomach it, and maybe even the Commanders in Madrid. The lesson from this weekend is simple: don’t overreact to blowouts. Momentum in the NFL lasts about as long as a field goal attempt.

We’ll take our 2-2 record, hope the Eagles close it out on Monday night, and move on. Betting isn’t about perfection; it’s about surviving variance with sanity intact. And after a Sunday like that, sanity feels like the biggest win of all.