It’s Week 10 in the NFL, and the board is a wild one. Trade deadline moves have shaken the market, lines are swinging wildly, and sharp money is showing up in some surprising places. Every Thursday, we break it all down: where the pros are leaning, which numbers still hold value, and which teams are being overhyped by the public.
Sharp Calls
This week’s Sharp Calls started with surprise: heavy professional money coming in on the Chargers. We get it – Justin Herbert shines in night games and the market loves his arm – but that line feels inflated. Losing Joe Alt on the offensive line and facing a Steelers defense that thrives in grind-it-out games? We’d lean Pittsburgh.
Then there’s the Patriots-Buccaneers matchup. We liked the Bucs at -2.5 and thought this number would climb, yet its resistance tells us the market expects a close game. Still, we’re sticking with Tampa Bay, who is not only coming into this one rested off its bye week, but also should be getting several key players back from injury.
Broncos (-9.5) vs Raiders
We’re both riding with the Broncos. The wise guys may think it’s too many points in a divisional game on a short week, but that defense can suffocate a one-dimensional Raiders offense fresh off an overtime loss to Jacksonville.
We can’t start the week 0-1, so we need this one. As our old friend Bob Scucci would say, we need this one for our lungs – we are currently underwater.
Giants (+4) at Bears
A lot of pros came in on Chicago this week, which stunned us. The Giants look like the right side: the Bears’ pass defense leaks yardage and most of their wins have come through turnover luck. But weather could tilt things – if snow or rain hit Soldier Field, Chicago’s run-heavy scheme gives them a major advantage. We’ll be patient, watch the forecasts, and maybe even grab the total (under 46.5) before kickoff.
Jets (+2) vs Browns
The Jets traded away two defensive stars in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams on Tuesday, yet sharp money moved toward them once this number hit +2.5. It’s less about faith in the Jets as it is distrust of Dillon Gabriel and the Browns’ offense.
Yes, New York’s front office has waved the white flag, but the players on the field are still auditioning for next year and should continue to play hard. We like New York in this one.
Texans (+1) vs Jaguars
We told listeners to wait until Houston became an underdog against Jacksonville and that patience was rewarded. We’re not running to back Davis Mills, but with a week to prepare, he’s competent enough to complement a defense that keeps games close. The line climbing toward +2 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook tells us the public can’t quit the Jags – we’ll happily take the value on Houston.
Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Cardinals (+6.5) at Seahawks
Our Brass Balls Bet of the Week is the Arizona Cardinals +6.5 at Seattle. Jonathan Gannon’s decision to bench Kyler Murray for Jacoby Brissett looks gutsy, but the locker room has clearly responded to Brissett’s steadiness. The public can’t seem to shake off Seattle, yet the Seahawks’ home-field advantage is long gone. Since 2021, teams traveling to Seattle on a short week are 7-1 straight up and against the spread. We love this one at +6.5.
49ers (+4) vs Rams
This is the divisional chess match of the week: Shanahan vs. McVay. Every year, the numbers tell the same story: McVay just can’t solve this one on the road. He’s 1-7 SU and ATS in San Francisco.
The 49ers, even with injuries, hold the schematic edge. Their front seven can dictate tempo, and Mac Jones doesn’t have to be great – he just has to be on time. San Francisco tends to stumble after big wins, but this line’s too large to ignore.
Dolphins (+9) vs Bills
Every week feels like buy-low time on the Dolphins, and this might be the best spot yet. In back-to-back home games, Tua Tagovailoa is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS following a blowout loss. When he’s an underdog in this spot, he’s 3-0 both SU and ATS. Josh Allen, meanwhile, is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite of more than 7.5 points in his career. The Bills are banged up, James Cook’s status uncertain, and the Miami heat still matters in November. It’s a classic contrarian play: nobody wants them, so we do. Miami +9 is in the mix for our final five.
Sharp or Square Picks: Week 10
Our short list heading into the weekend:
- Broncos -9.5 vs Raiders
- Buccaneers -2.5 vs Patriots
- Jets +2 vs Browns
- Texans +1 vs Jaguars
- Cardinals +6.5 at Seahawks (Brass Balls)
- 49ers +4 vs Rams
- Dolphins +9 vs Bills
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