It feels like a weirdly quiet Super Bowl week. The line has stayed the same. There hasn’t been a lot of controversy. Injuries haven’t been an issue. It even feels like in the last 48 hours NFL news has been subsumed by NBA trade deadline news. That’s the vibe right now.
But inside the betting bubble, it’s never ending. Everyone’s got an opinion. And the bigger point for this week is simple: regardless of the sides, so much more of the action is on the prop bets. It’s all about the props. So for our Thursday pre-Super Bowl episode, we went mostly props with Brandon Anderson from the Action Network, and we built our perfect script.
The Super Bowl Line Staying Put, and Why It Still Feels Like Seattle
This has been mellow. No real madness. And yet, talking to pros, Simon’s hearing about 65% leaning Patriots. That surprised me. It felt like it was going to be super Seahawks-heavy, but there are positions being taken on New England.
Simon’s read is that a lot of this is underdog trends. If you blindly bet dogs in the Super Bowl, the public has been giving away a free point or two every time. Now it’s swung too far where we’re getting two free points on the favorite. 4.5 is a big number in a coin flip game, but the argument we keep coming back to is the same: you cannot overlook the Patriots path to get here and how favorable it was. They’ve earned it, they won those games, but it matters.
And on our side, we’re not being coy about it. It’s Seahawks or bust. I’m layered in. I bet Seattle at -3.5 when it opened, again at -4.5, and I’ve been laddering alternate lines.
Chad’s Choice: Seattle -6.5 (+115)
Chad’s Choice for Super Bowl LX is one of the Seattle alternate lines mentioned above: Seattle -6.5, +115 at Hard Rock Bet.
I bet Seattle -3.5 when the game opened. I bet them again at -4.5. I’ve been layering Seattle alt lines in a variety of ways. If Seattle is controlling the ball, New England is playing catch-up, and this turns into the kind of game we keep describing, then 6.5 is the perfect escalation point where you’re still getting plus money.
This is the version of the bet where I’m no longer trying to be cute. I’m leaning fully into Seattle being the better team and winning by a decent margin.
Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Patriots First Drive Punt (-113)
Our Brass Balls Bet of the Week is one of the grossest bets on the board.
New England Patriots first drive punt, -113.
It’s gross. Just gross.
But it fits. If the Seahawks defense is as dominant as we think, this is exactly how it begins. It takes brass balls to bet it because you’re rooting for nothing to happen. No trick plays. No busted coverage. No early variance. Nothing.
Why the Super Bowl is the Holy Grail for Props
Simon knows plenty of professionals below the age of 30 who don’t even play spreads or totals. They only do props. That’s why the Super Bowl is the holy grail – markets galore.
The menu has exploded. Seeing a sheet of 200+ props used to be mind blowing. Now it’s thousands. Anything you can think of. And that’s why this show is dedicated to props: we’re trying to make every snap matter.
Seattle Defense vs. Patriots Offense
Brandon’s confidence starts with the mismatch between the Seahawks defense and the Patriots offense. To him, all year long, the two units he believed in most were Rams offense and Seahawks defense. The Rams are now out, and Seattle’s defense has been absurd.
Since Week 13, Seattle gave up 64 points to the Rams and 44 points to everybody else in that stretch. That’s seven points a game to anyone other than the Rams. The Patriots offense, meanwhile, had good numbers in the regular season because their schedule was soft, and now against tough defenses the numbers are ghastly. They’re averaging -0.73 EPA per drive in the playoffs, basically the Jets offense. And historically, it’s the worst EPA per drive for a Super Bowl team since the 2000 Ravens or 2015 Broncos.
So Brandon’s first bet is Patriots team total under 20.5. Seattle has held non-Rams opponents under 20.5 points in 13 out of 16 games. Both teams are bottom four in pace too, which fits a slower game.
Laddering Seattle Alternate Lines
I also asked Brandon, straight up, how I should go about laddering Seattle. His approach this year has been 5.5 and 9.5 as the starting escalator steps, ducking under key numbers.
From there, he’ll climb in chunks: 16.5 and 23.5, basically hitting a touchdown at a time, usually a little bit less each time as the odds rise. The point is correlating: if Seattle wins by 20 or 30, how did they get there? That’s where you can get creative and build the Same Game Parlay around your script.
Simon’s view is simple: the Super Bowl is supposed to be fun, but keep your bankroll in check. If you’re a $100 bettor, do $1-$2 parlays and build your script.
D/ST Touchdown: Set It and Forget It
Brandon calls this a “set it and forget it” Super Bowl bet. Defensive scores show up. There have been 22 defensive touchdowns in Super Bowl history, and at least one in 19 of 59. Special teams matters too: there have been 13 special teams touchdowns in the Super Bowl, and these two teams had eight special teams touchdowns this season combined.
His simple bet: either team’s defense or special teams anytime touchdown at +265.
Then he gets aggressive with correlation because the team that gets the defensive touchdown almost always wins the game. He played two parlays:
- Seattle D/ST Anytime TD + Seattle ML
- Patriots D/ST Anytime TD + Patriots ML
He also likes defensive MVP at 15-1, pointing out there have been 10 defensive players to win Super Bowl MVP.
And then the glory shots for exact defender MVP:
- Marcus Jones (150-1)
- DeMarcus Lawrence (150-1)
- Ernest Jones IV (200-1)
The Most Exciting Bet for SB LX: Rasheed Shaheed as a Runner
Brandon’s most fun bet is Rashid Shaheed over 2.5 rushing yards. You’re waiting for one play. One gadget play. One reverse. One weird scheme they’ve been holding back.
Shaheed has had a rushing attempt in 8 of 11 games since coming over to Seattle, and the Patriots have allowed more rushing yards to receivers than any team this season. Brandon also mentioned Shaheed at 30-1 to have the longest rush in the game, the single-shot sweat that makes Super Bowl parties electric.
Kenneth Walker Receiving Props: Receptions First, Then the Yardage Escalator
I’ve been on Kenneth Walker receiving yards from the start, and Brandon backed it up. Over the last 10 games, his receiving role jumped to 2.7 catches and 28 yards per game, up from 1.2 catches for nine yards earlier in the same. His targets have jumped from 1.3 a game to 3.1.
Brandon’s play is Walker over 2.5 receptions – and he likes the yardage escalator as well: 30 receiving yards at +160. He pointed out that in games with 3+ catches this season, he’s averaging 39 receiving yards.
The Patriots Comeback Angle: Hunter Henry Yards
If New England is going to sustain anything, Brandon’s angle is short passes. Seattle is league average defending short throws by design. They’ll allow checkdowns and wait for a mistake.
That being said, he’s targeting Patriots TE Hunter Henry. Seattle has allowed a 24% target rate to tight ends and is Top 6 in yards and receptions allowed to the position.
Brandon’s bet: Hunter Henry over 39.5 receiving yards, and he also likes 50+ yards at +155. He even mentioned 80+ yards at +630 as a nibble.
Sharp or Square: Super Bowl LX Picks
Chad’s Choice
-
Seattle -6.5 (+115)
Brass Balls Bet of the Week
-
Patriots First Drive Punt (-113)
Brandon Anderson’s Card:
- Patriots Team Total Under 20.5
- Either Team Defense/Special Teams TD (+265)
- Seattle D/ST TD + Seattle ML
- Patriots D/ST TD + Patriots ML
- Defensive MVP (15-1)
- Marcus Jones MVP (150-1)
- DeMarcus Lawrence MVP (150-1)
- Ernest Jones IV MVP (200-1)
- Rashid Shaheed Over 2.5 Rushing Yards
- Rashid Shaheed Longest Rush In Game (30-1)
- Kenneth Walker Over 2.5 Receptions
- Kenneth Walker 30+ Receiving Yards (+160)
- Hunter Henry Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
- Hunter Henry 50+ Receiving Yards (+155)
- Hunter Henry 80+ Receiving Yards (+630)
Official Super Bowl Contest Picks
- Seattle -4.5
- Patriots 1H +3.5
- Under 45
- Drake Maye Over 19.5 Completions
- Rhamondre Stevenson Under 53.5 Rushing Yards
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