Sharp or Square: Super Bowl LX Analysis with John Middlekauff

For this episode, we were joined by our Volume brother John Middlekauff, former NFL personnel man and host of Three and Out, to talk through the Super Bowl, the betting market, and what we’re seeing from both teams.

Drake Maye’s Shoulder and Line Movement

We opened the discussion with the betting line sitting at Seahawks -4.5 and how it reacted to news around Drake Maye’s shoulder and his limited practice participation.

John said injuries matter only if a quarterback cannot function, and until that happens, he expects Maye to play normally. He pointed out that similar injury concerns around other quarterbacks this season did not end up affecting their play once the game started.

Simon said there was never a doubt Maye would play, and that the question was about injury tolerance rather than availability. He added that he has not heard anything suggesting the injury is severe.

Sam Darnold’s Development and Recent Play

John talked extensively about Sam Darnold’s progression as a quarterback, beginning with his time in New York, Carolina, San Francisco, Minnesota, and now Seattle.

He referenced Darnold’s game against the Rams, noting that Darnold took sacks instead of forcing throws and avoided turnovers. John said that was smart football and a sign of growth.

John also said that Seattle does not need high passing volume to win. He pointed to games where Darnold completed relatively few passes but Seattle still controlled the game.

Simon added that Darnold can lose the game for Seattle if he makes mistakes, but when he plays sound football and takes what the defense gives him, Seattle becomes very difficult to beat.

Mike Vrabel’s Influence and Coaching Experience

A major portion of our conversation focused on Mike Vrabel.

John mentioned how Vrabel’s understanding of game management, the rulebook, and situational football gives New England an advantage. He referenced Vrabel’s background under Bill Belichick and how that shows up in close games.

Simon added that Vrabel consistently takes points when available and manages the game based on conditions like weather.

John also discussed Josh McDaniels’ extensive playoff experience, noting that few coordinators have been involved in as many postseason game plans.

Possibility of a Lopsided Game

John said it would not shock him if the game turned into a lopsided result in favor of the Seahawks. He stated that if Seattle plays efficiently, the outcome could resemble past Super Bowls that got out of hand.

At the same time, the coaching advantage on New England’s side was cited as the reason the game could stay competitive.

Final Thoughts

Both John and Simon are firmly on Seattle in this one.

Stay tuned for our Super Bowl LX prop bet show the full card.