Sharp or Square: Our Week 4 Betting Picks

This is the best part of the sports calendar. Baseball is peaking, pucks and hoops are tuning up, and football is a constant hum. We’re grateful that our job is to turn that hum into edges, and this week offers plenty—some chalk we’re comfortable swallowing, some dogs we’ll hold our nose and take, and a few numbers that just don’t make sense if you’ve followed how these teams are actually playing.

Let’s start with what our phones confirmed on “sharp calls.” Professional money lined up with us on several fronts: Tampa Bay, Detroit, Kansas City, Dallas, and—somewhat to our surprise—the Rams. Where we’re out of step with a good chunk of the market: Washington, New Orleans, Seattle, and the Jets. That’s fine. Disagreement is the oxygen of a betting week.

Thursday Night Tension: Cardinals or Seahawks?

We opened the week wanting Arizona and waited for plus money. It arrived—and still we hesitated. Why? Not because of trends about the Seahawks’ historic dominance; because Seattle is simply better right now, particularly on defense. But Kyler Murray as a dog remains an auto-lean for us. We’re not forcing it into contests, but we won’t be on the Seahawks. If Murray’s catching points, you either take them or pass.

The Chargers Test: Don’t Overthink It

Los Angeles  with a -6/-6.5 point spread vs. the Giants is the kind of play that makes you queasy for all the right reasons. The Giants’ D-line got love after muddying up Patrick Mahomes, and the unknown of Jackson Dart has sparked a narrative sugar rush. Strip it away. Jim Harbaugh vs. a rookie QB making his first start. Justin Herbert vs. a defense that doesn’t cover well and won’t suddenly become stout. Could the unknown QB legs create variance? Sure. But coaching and quarterback edges this stark are why numbers like -6 exist. We’re comfortable backing superior talent to flatten a bad team.

Tampa Bay +3.5: Perpetual Mispricing Meets a Banged-Up Favorite

We like Baker Mayfield more as a dog than a favorite, and this is exactly that spot. Tampa’s injury sheet is lively, but so is Philly’s. The Bucs have pieces (hello, Vita Vea) to blunt the tush-push and force Jalen Hurts to win outside structure, where Philadelphia’s own defensive attrition shows up. Baker’s been living on fourth-quarter comebacks—unsustainable, yes—but the hook matters. At +3.5, with the Bucs undervalued and the Eagles typically overtaxed by the market, we’ll ride.

Brass Balls: Detroit -9 vs. Cleveland

We asked for a big-boy bet and circled Detroit. The market keeps flirting with double digits, and we get why. Dan Campbell’s Lions don’t exhale after blowouts—they roll them forward. The run-game duel is the headline: Cleveland’s front has been spectacular against the run; Detroit’s duo and line are better than anyone the Browns have seen. If Jared Goff has an off day, this becomes sweat equity. But the matchup favors Detroit, the trend profile under Campbell supports aggression, and the number, while sturdy, isn’t inflated beyond reason. This is our “brass balls” stance.

Rams -3.5 vs. Colts: Selling a Pop, Buying a Floor

We’ve been high on Indy relative to market, but context matters: early schedule softness can make efficient offenses look elite. The Rams’ passing game punishes secondaries with coverage leaks—exactly Indy’s soft spot. The one worry: containing Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor on the ground. But in aggregate we’re getting a discount driven by a fluky late special-teams swing last week. Most pros we talked to lean our way. If this ticks to 4, we still prefer the horns.

Niners vs. Jaguars: Lay It with San Francisco at a Field Goal

We watched Brock Purdy move in practice clips and he looked like, well, Brock Purdy. If he’s functional, the rest of the handicap holds: San Francisco’s defensive structure stresses timing offenses and punishes drops—Jacksonville has too many. We don’t care about decades-old cross-country records, but we do care that the Jags’ offense has started slow in travel spots and still leads the league in costly drops. At -3, it’s a buy. At -3.5, we’d still lean Niners; our number is closer to 4.

Chiefs +2.5/3 vs. Ravens: Bet the Matchup, Trust Mahomes

This feels scary because Baltimore’s urgency meter is pinned. It still sets up for Kansas City. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is the best Lamar Jackson has faced this year; Kansas City’s run game has struggled but has been facing elite fronts. Baltimore’s front seven is wounded and especially vulnerable against physical run looks and gap schemes—exactly what KC can lean into to keep the chains ahead of schedule. If Xavier Worthy goes, that’s a pressure valve for Mahomes in space. The pros are with the Chiefs; the public is seduced by the “short number with Lamar” frame. We’re Chiefs or nothing, and we prefer a flat 3 if you can find it.

Bears–Raiders: Numbers over Nostalgia

This line has whipsawed between Las Vegas +1.5 and -1. We prefer the Raiders when you can grab the plus. Caleb Williams looked terrific when clean; Maxx Crosby ensures he won’t be clean as often. Young QBs off a high often regress when confronted with heat and simple, disciplined pressures. We won’t force it into a contest at a pick’em, but plus numbers on the Raiders are worth small exposure.

Dallas +7 vs. Green Bay: Ugly, Which Is the Point

No one likes stepping in front of LaFleur’s voodoo against Dallas. We’re not thrilled either. But seven at home for a quality offense is a number you hold your nose and take in the modern NFL. This mirrors last week’s Cleveland spot: the market inflates the favorite; the dog’s backdoor and talent make the math work. If it dips to 6.5, we’d rather pass than pray.

What We’re Actually Betting

• Simon’s Biggest positions:
  • Rams -3.5
  • Bucs +3.5
  • Chiefs +3 (if available; +2.5 still fine)
  • Chargers -6/-6.5
• Underdog Moneyline Round Robin:
  • Chiefs
  • Bucs
  • Raiders
  • Atlanta
  • Panthers
• Favorites Parlay:
  • Bills
  • Lions
  • Chargers
  • Rams
  • Broncos
• Survivor Pick: Buffalo Bills… or Houston Texans if you’re feeling adventurous.
• Brass Balls: Lions -9
• Leans we’ll monitor:
  • Cardinals as a dog (not for contests)
  • Raiders only at plus numbers
  • Cowboys +7, 49ers up to -3.5

We won’t win style points for romance this week. It’s a lot of home chalk and a few too mangy dogs, which is exactly how October football often wants to be bet. Numbers first, narratives second. If we’re wrong, we’ll be wrong with edges we can live with—and we’ll be back Sunday to own it.