Sharp or Square: Our Thanksgiving Week Betting Card

Thanksgiving week is the closest thing football fans have to a national holiday, and for bettors, it’s an even bigger celebration. Three NFL games, full bellies, and endless opportunities to find edges. Think of this week’s column as the turducken of betting breakdowns — layered, rich, and packed with our favorite angles.

We’re coming off a 3–2 week and sitting at 34–26 on the season, right where we want to be heading into the stretch run.

Thanksgiving Games & Market Reads

Green Bay at Detroit (-2.5)

Early money moved the number off -3 and toward the Packers. But we’re cautious — Detroit’s poor showing last week was heavily influenced by two trick-play touchdowns, something no defense prepares for. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s win over Minnesota said more about JJ McCarthy’s collapse than anything the Packers did. With Campbell’s historical success after failing to cover, and with Detroit remaining the significantly better team indoors, we lean Lions at -2.5, though it may not make our contest card.

Trend to know: Since 2004, Thanksgiving favorites are 51–9 straight up and 40–20 ATS, with double-digit favorites an absurd 10–0 ATS. Chalk tends to feast on thanksgiving.

Kansas City (-3) at Dallas

This opened 4.5 and has been hammered to 3 — a classic Mahomes inflection point. We’re torn: Dallas usually gets inflated at home on Thanksgiving, but this line is now too efficient to attack from either side. We need movement — either a cheap Cowboys price or a bargain on the Chiefs. Until then, this is a wait-and-see.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (+7)

We both bet Cincinnati — early at +7.5, and again at +7 — expecting Joe Burrow’s return and knowing Ja’Marr Chase is back. This is too big a number for a Ravens team that keeps winning without convincing. Lamar isn’t fully right, Baltimore hasn’t dominated for weeks, and Cincinnati is historically strong with Burrow as a sizable underdog.

That said, Thanksgiving dogs are historically dangerous. The Bengals will be a public dog — not ideal — but +7 remains playable.

Looking Ahead to Sunday

Simon Says: Eagles -6.5 vs. Bears

Even though our model makes it -5, matchup strength outweighs math here. The Eagles’ defense is the best unit in this game, and Philadelphia has been elite in this exact spot: 10–0 ATS in games following a divisional matchup over the last two seasons, covering by nearly 10 per contest. Turnovers burned them last week; this profile sets up perfectly for a rebound at home.

We grabbed -6.5 and expect further movement if pros step in.

Chad’s Choice: Browns +5.5 vs. 49ers

We’re aligned here. The number opened 6.5, which we bet immediately, but even 5.5 is playable. San Francisco beat Carolina last night, though not convincingly — Brock Purdy threw three picks, and the only reason the 49ers covered was because Bryce Young and the Panthers handed them extra possessions.

Cleveland at home with this defense is a fundamentally different team. And with Sanders confirmed as QB, their offensive ceiling is slightly higher than what Dillon Gabriel offered. Combined with a vulnerable 49ers secondary and an inflated market perception, Browns +5.5 remains a strong play — plus moneyline sprinkle territory.

Brass Balls Play: Jets +2.5 vs. Falcons

This is the unpleasant side we live for. The market will chase Atlanta after their win, but the Jets quietly held up against Baltimore in a game where the final score masked how competitive they actually were. Tyrod Taylor’s ability to push the ball downfield — or Justin Fields’ legs if he starts — pairs well with a matchup against a soft Falcons run defense.

This spread could hit +3, but we’re comfortable at +2.5 as one of the sharpest contrarian plays of the week.

Other Games on Our Radar

Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Cardinals

This number is begging to be grabbed now. If Baker Mayfield is cleared, this shoots toward -6. Even if Teddy Bridgewater starts, he’s historically strong ATS. We’re laying the 2.5 early.

Colts -4 vs. Texans

We hit -3.5 Sunday night knowing Houston enthusiasm would distort the line. Indianapolis indoors, with Jonathan Taylor on turf, continues to be a profitable profile.

Dolphins -5.5 vs. Saints

Not our favorite matchup, but Miami at home in the heat at 1pm has been a long-standing moneymaker.

Panthers +10 vs. Rams

Massively inflated. Our models make it closer to 7. Even with secondary injuries, 10 is too big. Panthers +10.

Steelers +3.5 vs. Bills

We don’t love backing Pittsburgh, but we love fading Buffalo at this price even more. Tomlin as a home dog, paired with a Bills defense in decline, is enough.

Giants +7.5 at Patriots

The trenches matter here. With New England’s left side of the offensive line decimated, the Giants’ defensive front has every advantage. This may end up in our contest picks.

Titans +6.5 at Jaguars

We won’t belabor the point — we have zero interest in laying nearly a touchdown with Jacksonville.

Washington (+6.5) vs. Denver (SNF)

A lean toward Washington early, particularly if Jaden Daniels plays. Peyton can scheme this defense apart, but the number may give us enough room.

Vikings +10/+10.5 at Seahawks

It’s ugly, but the defense can make life uncomfortable for Darnold. Unlikely to make our final five, but we’re evaluating the angle.

Moneyline Fun

If you want to get truly festive:

Panthers + Browns + Jets (round robin or full parlay)

Hideous. Beautiful.

Programming notes

We’ll post any Thanksgiving Day adds — especially if Dallas drifts to +3.5 or Cincinnati gets a better number with Burrow confirmed — on social before kickoff. No Thursday show this week.

We’re back Sunday with:

• Our five contest picks
• ML parlays (favorites & dogs)
• Rock-in-a-Hard-Place bet
• Sharp Calls
• and late-breaking market updates

Thankful for all of you who ride with us each week. Feedback is a gift — and so is having football, family, and the chance to bet Tyrod Taylor.

Happy Thanksgiving.