Between the end of the Bears game and the moment I woke up the next morning, I had more than 200 texts congratulating me on Indiana winning the national title. More people reached out about that than when I had kids. That’s how deeply sports connects us – how people know what matters to you without you ever saying it out loud.
At one point on the morning of the game, in the middle of a conversation about grief and loss, one of us brought up the idea that karma was going to carry over from the Bears loss and take down Indiana next.
We spent fifteen minutes debating whether karma is connected to fans or teams. And the conclusion was simple: Indiana is better than karma. They outrun it. They focus on the six seconds that matter, then move on to the next play.
And that’s the mindset we need this weekend.
Conference Championship Sunday isn’t about emotion. It’s about numbers. It’s about when the market tells a story that doesn’t match what’s happening on the field. Let’s get into it.
Simon Says: Broncos (+5.5) vs Patriots
The story here is obvious: Jarrett Stidham is starting.
The line hasn’t moved much since Sunday night, sitting at Broncos +5.5 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, with the total around 42.
Simon’s reaction was immediate: this is an overreaction.
Drake Maye has shown promise, throwing three touchdowns last week, but against good defenses, the issues have been clear. In two games against strong defensive fronts, he’s taken 10 sacks, fumbled six times, and thrown two interceptions. New England survived last week in part because C.J. Stroud melted down – not because the offense was consistently functional.
Denver’s defense can pressure quarterbacks, and Stidham isn’t a rookie being thrown into the fire. He’s been in Sean Payton’s offense for two years now. He’s played meaningful NFL snaps. This isn’t a placeholder situation.
Historically, home underdogs of four points or more in the playoffs have been dominant against the spread. Since 2015, teams coming off overtime playoff games have struggled straight up, which is why the spread matters more than the moneyline here.
The Patriots can win. A field goal at the end wouldn’t shock anyone. But this number gives too much margin. This is our Simon Says play for Championship Sunday.
Rams at Seahawks (-2.5)
This is the uncomfortable one.
The Rams are easy to talk yourself into. At their peak, they look dominant. But too often this season, they’ve had breakdowns – conservative play-calling, missed opportunities, and stretches where they fail to commit to what’s working.
They didn’t cover in the Wild Card round. They didn’t cover in the Divisional round. And yet they’re still here.
This is LA’s third straight road game. Seattle is at home and has leaned heavily into defense and the run. Historically, teams playing a third straight road game in the playoffs have struggled badly, especially when listed as underdogs.
The Seahawks are healthier, more rested, and coming off a game where their starters didn’t have to play a full four quarters. The Rams, meanwhile, are dealing with injuries and cumulative fatigue.
There may be reasons to want the Rams. But the number keeps pulling us back to Seattle.
This is one where patience matters. The market resistance around three is telling. Waiting to see where professionals land makes sense. We’re leaning Seattle and under, but nothing official yet.
Sharp or Square: Leans & Best Bets for Championship Sunday
- Simon Says: Broncos +5.5
- Seahawks -2.5 (Lean)
- Under 47.5 (Lean)
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