Sharp or Square: Early Week 14 Leans

As the Week 14 numbers hit the board, a few early opportunities stand out. Market movement has already begun, so timing matters – especially with weather concerns, quarterback uncertainty, and public perception creating potential value. Here’s where the sharp eyes are looking first.

Jets (+3) vs Dolphins

The first number that jumped off the screen was New York catching a field goal. With potential Northeast weather looming, an outdoor divisional matchup favors grabbing the early +3 before the line slips. And it already has – most books moved to +2.5 while we were discussing it. Only one lingering +3 remains on the board, and even that one is juiced. Early bettors clearly see the same opportunity.

Texans (+4) at Chiefs

Kansas City in prime time as a short home favorite is always going to draw interest, even in a season when the public has been burned repeatedly backing them. Houston’s offense continues to look disjointed, and the Chiefs appear to be drifting into “undervalued” territory for the first time all year. I’m not pounding the table yet, but grabbing the -4 early feels like insurance against a move toward -5 or -5.5 once the market recalibrates.

Colts (-1.5) at Jaguars

This line may hinge on Daniel Jones’ health. I’m willing to grab the early number, accepting the inherent injury risk. The Colts continue to be a team the market struggles to price correctly, and this may be another instance of catching a favorable line before clarity hits.

Cowboys (+3.5) at Lions

The show opened with Dallas as a +3.5 underdog, but by the time discussion wrapped, the number had already ticked toward +3. Detroit remains a strong home team, but that initial movement indicates sharp involvement. This wasn’t a strong early play, but the movement was notable enough to flag.

Commanders (-1.5) at Vikings

Expectations are that Jayden Daniels will play against Minnesota, and Washington is already (rightfully) drawing early interest from bettors. We liked this one a lot more when it opened at +1.5, and have since watched it flip in the other direction following an impressive effort on Sunday Night Football. We’ll keep tabs on this one throughout the week.

Final Thoughts

Kansas City, the New York Jets, and Washington lead the early Week 14 radar. These numbers will continue to move, and the edges will be found by those willing to act before the rest of the market catches up.