This was one of those weekends that reminds you why playoff football is the most intoxicating, punishing thing in sports. We went 1-4 again, back to back, for the first time ever. Totals blown up by turnovers. Sides undone by chaos. A weekend where the process felt right and the results felt like a gut punch. That’s the deal we sign up for. And somehow, this is still the best time of year.
49ers at Seahawks
We talked all week about this game going one of two ways. Either Seattle would blow them out because of the injuries to San Francisco, or the game would stay tight and low scoring, which was our choice. We took Under 45.5 and San Francisco +7.5.
What we didn’t account for was the 49ers doing everything in their power to help Seattle score, and Seattle doing everything they could to not score efficiently. A kickoff return touchdown. A field goal off a fumble. A touchdown off an interception. Short fields over and over again.
Seattle ended up winning big, but the way it happened was maddening. I landed in Miami around 10:30, got in a cab, and Seattle was already up 34-6 with a quarter left. You’d think the over would be dead. Instead, the Seahawks scored again, because the 49ers kept handing them the ball in impossible-to-ignore situations.
Sam Darnold didn’t play well, but neither quarterback really did. Seattle’s defense dominated. Every possession for the Seahawks offense started on a short field. San Francisco settled for field goals early, and once you see Kyle Shanahan playing for threes, you know how that story ends.
We had a great number. Some books closed at +6.5. It didn’t matter. Seattle absolutely dominated as the healthier, better team.
Texans at Patriots
This game might have been the most excruciating watch of the weekend. We had New England -3.5, which cashed, and the under 40.5, which got obliterated thanks to pure chaos.
Eight turnovers: 17 of the 44 total points scored came directly off turnovers. The rest of the game featured 13 punts and a turnover on downs. If not for those mistakes, I don’t know if this game gets to 30 points.
The first touchdown came off a fumble on a 27-yard drive. The second was a pick-six. Then a field goal off another interception.
CJ Stroud was lost. After how bad he was the week before, you would think the entire game plan would be about ball security, especially with that defense. Instead, he kept giving New England short fields. Meanwhile, Drake Maye threw three touchdown passes against one of the best defenses in football, even while being reckless with the ball himself.
New England finished with 21 points and barely garnered 130 yards. That tells you everything you need to know. This was a game we handicapped correctly in every way except the one thing you can’t control. Turnovers don’t just ruin totals – they erase logic.
New England is now a game away from the Super Bowl with a very young quarterback, and it keeps reinforcing the same truth: a quarterback with the right head coach changes everything.
Bills at Broncos
This one still hurts, mostly because we didn’t trust our instincts. The first thing I said about this game was that I wanted the over. These teams lit it up in the second half when they played earlier in the year. We chickened out.
The over cashed by more than two touchdowns.
Denver -1.5 was also a great call. Bo Nix played an incredible game. He threw the ball over 45 times because they couldn’t run it at all, and they still won.
Josh Allen is going to take heat because of four turnovers, but look at who he was throwing to at the end of the game – guys who had barely been on the roster. Brandin Cooks had been on the team for about a month.
This game ultimately came down to millimeters. A fumble at the end of the first half. A few judgment calls. And once again, the Bills came up short.
If coaching didn’t matter, this wouldn’t keep happening. Josh Allen is not the problem. You cannot look at his playoff career and come away thinking otherwise. If I’m Buffalo, I’m doing whatever it takes to change the voice leading that team.
Rams at Bears
The bet we loved all week hit with no sweat. First half under 24.5, easy. Fourteen quick points and then everything slowed down. That was the good news.
The rest was not so good.
Caleb Williams gave us one of the most incredible playoff plays you’ll ever see. 4th and 4. Back foot. Fifty yards. Only place the ball could go. A play that will live forever.
And then he threw a pick in overtime.
This is the Bears experience. The defense played at a Super Bowl level. Brisker was everywhere. McVay and Stafford looked completely unprepared for the blitz, even though they could run the ball whenever they wanted.
We didn’t get the cover. It hurt. But I’ll say this. Seeing that play live, feeling that moment, that’s why we watch. That’s why we do this. Sometimes the loss is worth the experience.
Playoff football is brutal. The margins are microscopic. This weekend didn’t bounce our way. Next week, maybe it does.
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (AZ, CO, IL, MI, NJ, OH, TN, VA)
