Sharp or Square: NFL Divisional Round Leans & Best Bets

Last week was last week.

That’s the only way to survive this business. The Wild Card round was ugly, emotional, and humbling. Missed fourth downs. Defensive touchdowns. Unders that almost slipped away. A 1-4 week in the contest that reminded us how thin the margin really is in the NFL Playoffs.

But the good news is simple: none of that matters anymore.

This is the Divisional Round. Fewer teams. Tighter markets. Cleaner matchups. And a playoff field without a single team that feels complete on both sides of the football. The defenses with dominant units don’t have consistent quarterback play. The teams with elite quarterbacks don’t have dominant defenses.

That’s how you end up with a slate that feels wide open.

Let’s dig in.

Bills at Broncos (+1)

This line tells you everything you need to know about how powerful the Josh Allen tax still is in the betting market.

At various points, Buffalo has been favored on the road against the No. 1 seed in the conference, against one of the best defenses in football, with no proven No. 1 wide receiver, and with a defense that can be exploited. That doesn’t happen unless the market is still pricing Josh Allen as a difference-maker worth points on his own.

Denver, meanwhile, checks a lot of boxes that make professionals uncomfortable fading them. They get after the quarterback. They’re disciplined. They’re physical. And Sean Payton, with extended prep time, has historically been elite in this exact scenario.

There’s also the historical angle that jumps off the page. Home teams in this position who are underdogs have consistently won outright. It’s rare. It’s uncomfortable. And it’s exactly the type of spot sharp bettors gravitate toward.

The public is going to see Allen versus Bo Nix and make a fast decision. The professionals are already leaning the other way.

This is a classic early-week grab before the market flips.

49ers (+7.5) at Seahawks

Seattle’s defense is as dominant as any left in the postseason. The metrics back it up, the tape backs it up, and the recent head-to-head backs it up. Two weeks ago, this defense held San Francisco to three points, their lowest output under Kyle Shanahan.

That’s the case for Seattle.

The case for San Francisco is the number.

Getting +7.5 in a divisional matchup, with a team that didn’t make the playoffs last year, who may be undervalued by the market, is historically one of the strongest underdog profiles you’ll find. Third meeting. Familiarity. Backdoor potential. And a head coach who has thrived in this exact role.

That said, the cleaner angle in this game is the total.

Seattle’s offense isn’t explosive. San Francisco is banged up and just played an emotionally draining game. This profiles like a tight, physical, grind-it-out playoff matchup where every possession matters. Something in the low 20s on both sides fits perfectly.

A 24-21 type game makes sense. And if that’s the script, the under is the safest way to play it.

Texans (+3) at Patriots

This is the most confusing line on the board.

Houston has the better defense. Houston just won a road playoff game, breaking a franchise-wide narrative that had lingered for years. And yet they’re catching a full field goal.

New England, under Mike Vrabel, is as disciplined and well-coached as any team left. They know exactly who they are and how to win ugly. But this Patriots defense isn’t the Steelers defense, and that matters when evaluating what C.J. Stroud dealt with last week.

This game may come down to injuries at cornerback and wide receiver, but philosophically it’s hard to ignore the idea of taking the better defense as a dog in the playoffs.

The total also stands out. Both teams are comfortable slowing games down. Both defenses can create pressure. And neither offense is built to play fast in January.

If anything feels right early, it’s the under.

Rams at Bears (+4)

This is the marquee game. Prime time. Cold weather. Chicago. And a Bears team that has captured the imagination of the betting public.

That’s what makes it so uncomfortable.

Chicago keeps games close. That’s their identity. Whether they win or lose, they drag opponents into tight fourth quarters. But now they’re facing a legitimate contender with playoff pedigree, an elite offensive scheme, and a quarterback who has never lost a playoff game as a favorite.

The weather looms large. Bitter cold. Night game. Stafford dealing with a finger issue. That alone puts the total into question.

This is the highest total of the weekend, in the coldest environment, with two teams that are more than capable of playing conservatively early.

The side is difficult. The total is not.

Sharp or Square: Divisional Round Leans & Best Bets

• Broncos +1
• 49ers +7.5 (early lean)
• 49ers/Seahawks Under 45.5
• Texans +3 (early lean)
• Texans/Patriots Under 41
• Rams/Bears Under 50.5
• Rams/Bears 1H Under (early lean)

Last week was last week.

This week is all that matters.