Sharp or Square: Best Bets for NFL Week 17

Holiday football has a funny way of humbling the loudest takes and rewarding the simplest truth: underdogs have been showing up when the lights are brightest. Thanksgiving dogs cashed. The Black Friday dog cashed. Christmas dogs cashed. What a year.

Now it’s Week 17, the board is messy, the motivation angles are loud, and the lines are moving like they’ve got places to be. So we’re doing what we always do: cut through the noise, find the matchups that matter, and pick our spots like pros—even when it feels gross.

Let’s break down our favorite sides, plus the “Brass Balls” bet, the games we’re fighting over, and the parlays we stitched together like it’s 2:00 a.m. in a sportsbook.

Texans (+2) @ Chargers

We’re not overthinking this. This is about one thing: betting against the Chargers’ offensive line. We don’t care that they’ve been “winning.” We don’t care that Justin Herbert is awesome (he is). We care that the tackles are gone, the protection is leaky, and now they’re facing a Texans front that can wreck the game plan.

We grabbed Houston +2.5 early and like the moneyline too. DeMeco Ryans as an outright dog has been profitable, and this matchup screams pressure, disruption, and a Chargers offense that’s been getting a little too much credit for the opponents it’s beaten.

This is one of those spots where the public sees the quarterback and ignores the trenches. Herbert has earned respect this year—hand issues, missing tackles, still producing. But the defensive looks Houston can throw at him are the same kind that have historically made his life miserable… and now the protection is worse.

• Best look: Texans +2 / Texans ML

Seahawks (-7) @ Panthers

We hate this emotionally. We’ve been early Panthers adopters. We’ve defended Bryce Young through the internet’s tantrums. But 7 is a lot, and my first instinct was: “Do we really want to fade our beloved?”

We do. And it’s not because Carolina can’t pop—Bryce can absolutely keep games close. It’s because the talent gap is real, and this is the kind of number that gets inflated when the market overreacts to one flashy result.

Here’s the key: that last Carolina win was impressive, but it also featured an opponent meltdown baked in. If Carolina loses that game, this spread is closer to double digits. The market moved too far on a single outcome.

Seattle’s defensive front is the separator. If this turns into a one-dimensional “Bryce has to be a superhero” game, that’s a tough ask—especially with Carolina’s week-to-week volatility and a classic late-season lookahead vibe.

• Best look: Seahawks -7

Colts (+6.5) vs Jaguars

This is our kind of disgusting. The Colts just got embarrassed on national television. The Jags just looked great on the road. Everyone’s brain goes: “Jacksonville good, Indy bad.” That’s exactly when we want to buy.

Also: home dogs of more than a field goal off a blowout have historically been a profitable profile. This is a numbers-and-narrative alignment spot.

And we’re not letting the “Jags just beat Denver!” transitive property trick us. We’re not sure Denver’s offense is as good as the hype, and Jacksonville might be getting a little overvalued because of the opponent.

This number was already getting nudged down in real time. If you like the Colts, you want the best of it early.

• Best look: Colts +6.5 (Chad), Jaguars ML/teaser (Simon’s compromise)

Saints (-2.5) @ Titans

We liked Tennessee +3.5 early, and are still fine with it at +2.5, and also like the moneyline. This isn’t the dead Titans team we spent half the year fading. The coaching shift matters. The identity has changed. They’re suddenly… functional. Which is annoying, because it means you can’t just auto-fade them anymore.

It’s a classic “everyone left them for dead” team that has quietly stabilized. My only hesitation is the ticket count—when a dog starts getting public love, you check your wallet. But the wiseguy interest is real.

• Best look: Titans +2.5 / Titans ML

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Browns (+3) vs Steelers

This is the one we’re planting a flag on—because it’s ugly, it’s volatile, and it’s exactly the kind of late-season spot that creates value.

This is division weirdness plus motivation math. If Pittsburgh’s situation shifts based on earlier results, we could see resting, conservative game plans, or a “let’s just get out healthy” approach. Meanwhile, Cleveland gets the home rivalry game and the kind of effort you can actually trust.

We’re leaning into:

• division rivalry variance
• home dog value
• the Tomlin road-favorite fade angle
• and yes, Myles Garrett chasing history.

Cleveland has been bad… but they’ve also been hanging around at home. Close losses. Competitive fourth quarters. And historically, this building has been a problem for Pittsburgh more often than people remember. The line move tells the story too—this was higher, got bet down, popped back, and settled into the key range.

• Best look: Browns +3

Dolphins (+5.5) vs Buccaneers

Tampa has not been trustworthy laying a number like this. And Miami can run the ball into the sun if the matchup is right.

The number is tempting, but the quarterback situation is the whole handicap. If Miami’s offense can’t complete throws downfield, you’re basically betting that defense + run game can survive against a desperate Bucs team that should be able to throw all over a vulnerable secondary. There’s also been some sharper interest showing on Tampa as the week progressed.

Miami is the “in theory” side, but we get why Tampa is attracting money.

Bears (+3) @ 49ers

It’s hard to shake the feeling that San Francisco is getting priced like everything is solved because they looked great last week.

Chicago is legitimately undervalued. They’ve beaten real teams. Their offense avoids backbreaking mistakes, and their defense thrives on creating high-variance moments. If Brock Purdy gives you a couple of “here, you take it” throws, Chicago is exactly the type of team that turns that into points.

If the contest number is +3.5, it’s hard for us to ignore.

• Best look: Bears +3

Raiders (+1) vs Giants

Two bad teams, missing key pieces, and the coach factor matters. Who’s trying to win? Who’s trying to “evaluate”?

Tight ends usually don’t move lines like this, which tells you how valuable Brock Bowers is to the Raiders. But the move still felt extreme. Home-field has mattered historically in this specific kind of “two awful teams late” spot, and the Giants’ offensive line issues are brutal.

This game is the definition of “contest material” because it makes your skin crawl.

• Lean: Raiders (small), mostly as a “gross-but-usable” option

Our Week 17 positions

Bets we like most:

• Texans +2.5 and Texans ML (Chad + Simon)
• Seahawks -7 (Simon)
• Colts +6.5 (Chad)
• Titans +2.5 and Titans ML (Chad; Simon would if he could)
• Browns +3 (both; Brass Balls)
• Bears +3 (Simon strongly; Chad tempted/likely)

Watch list / split opinions

• Dolphins +5.5/+6 (Chad interested; Simon worried about QB)
• Raiders vs Giants (gross, but usable in the right format)

Week 17 NFL Parlays

Underdog Round Robin (high variance, high entertainment)

• Texans
• Bears
• Titans
• Browns
• Raiders

Favorites parlay (still sweaty, just differently)

• Seahawks
• Packers (if you hear this in time)
• Buccaneers
• Rams
• Bills (pending Josh Allen health)

That’s Week 17. It’s late-season football. The motivation angles are real. The line moves are louder than usual. And every bet still comes back to the same thing: numbers, matchups, and knowing when the market is chasing last week.