Sharp or Square: 2026 March Madness Picks & Predictions

This week, Simon, it’s one of the best weeks on the sporting calendar. We got March Madness. Listen, whether you love college basketball or not, no sports fan can deny it’s a magical time of year. The play-in games are Tuesday and Wednesday. Then there are 32 games between Thursday lunchtime and Friday at midnight.

Today, we’re going to deliver coverage across the entire stretch, including Simon Says and a Brass Balls Bet of the Week. We’re going to do that with the help of a special college sports expert and returning guest, Joshua ‘Duck’ Nunn.

Before we begin, we are doing a Hard Rock Bet and Volume Podcast Network totally free bracket contest. That’s right, a contest. The grand prize: a two-night stay at the Guitar Hotel in sunny Hollywood, Florida, plus $1,000 in bonus bets to use on the Hard Rock Bet app.

If you’re 21 or older and a U.S. resident, visit bracket.thevolume.com to fill out your bracket before tipoff on Thursday.

Seeds, Upsets, and the Truth About the Bracket

We asked Duck to bust open some myths for us. Does 12-5 matter anymore? Is 4-13 more important? Is 11-6 a better bet?

Duck’s answer was clear: there’s some value on the 5 seeds now that gets baked in as everybody likes the popular 12-5 upsets. But with NIL and the transfer portal, the rich get richer and the gap between the 1-4 seeds and the 13-16 seeds has never been wider.

That was the key point. If you’re looking for upsets, you can find value in some of the high-major teams that are perhaps underrated. He said there’s value this year in the 11 line and specifically pointed to teams like VCU and South Florida. The 12 seeds, on the other hand, drew some horrific draws.

That matters for bracket players. The upsets are great and it’s fun to call them, and if you can pluck the right one, you can look like a genius. But don’t get too upset-heavy in the first round. All of these point spreads are lined in excess of 13.5 for a reason.

A Team to Watch: South Florida

I was glad Duck mentioned South Florida because I think I actually chose them in the Volume Hard Rock contest. They have a coach who just gave the most incredible press conference after the team had made the tournament.

It’s a unique story, and Duck said schematically they’ll match up just fine with their first round opponent. South Florida definitely has the motivation there. That just adds fuel to the fire for the Bulls.

So yes, I’m getting sentimental in my old age, but I’m glad he brought up South Florida and Bryan Hodgson’s story.

Duck’s Best Bet for the Play-In Games: Mustangs Roll

The best bet for the play-in games was clear from Duck: SMU -6.5 against Miami (Ohio).

His reasoning was straightforward. Miami (Ohio) is a good team, but they haven’t played against any teams that are this athletic. SMU’s top-end talent is superior. Miami is going to need a real special performance from their shooters, and he just doesn’t think they’re going to make enough threes. He thinks hey could get destroyed at the rim.

So, the play for Wednesday night: lay it with SMU.

Duke, Favorites, and the Search for a Future

The top of the board is loaded: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Houston. Simon asked the right question: is there anyone in that top tier worthy of a future?

Duck’s answer: all of the teams have an excellent chance to at least get to the Elite Eight, but Duke is very, very good.

That was music to Simon’s ears.

Duke’s path is solid. You’re not going to get to the rim against Duke. Boozer can live at the line. He’s got three post moves that can make you look like a fool if you get him on the block. They play a good inside-outside game. Duke’s really buttoned up and they’re going to be tough to beat.

Simon said he needed to hear that. He was trying to be very ho-hum about it, but he’s obviously all in on them. The issue is the price. Even Duck said the value has pretty well been squeezed out if you’re looking to bet the favorites. So Duke may be the team, but maybe not the right number.

Duck’s Best Bets for Thursday

Duck gave out three games he wanted to talk about for Thursday’s opening round:

Wisconsin Team Total over 87.5

The logic is simple. High Point plays very fast. They press, they trap, they gamble defensively, and that will be major trouble against the Badgers. Wisconsin has these guys playing as fast as any Wisconsin team we’ve ever seen. Duck thinks Wisconsin puts up a huge point total here and could approach 100 points.

Duke-Siena Under 136.5

Siena really only plays six guys. They live in the mid-range, and they will not be able to get to the rim against Duke. Duke is probably going to play this at a pace of about 62 or 63 possessions. If you’re Duke, with the injuries you’ve battled late in the season, the idea is to get this to a 20-point margin, get Boozer the hell out of there, and grind down the second half. He projects something like 78-52.

Idaho-Houston Under 136.5

Idaho is not going to be able to go up and down with Houston, and they know that. It’s going to be a slow-paced game. Houston already plays at a slow and methodical pace, and Duck thinks Idaho could struggle to break 50 points.

Duck’s Best Bets for Friday

For Friday, Duck had three more:

Long Island-Arizona Under 152

LIU is going to truncate this pace down. They cannot shoot, they don’t want to shoot threes, and outside of a couple scorers, there’s not a lot there. Arizona shoots three-pointers infrequently and relies on getting to the rim, getting to the line, and hitting shots in the mid-range. Duck sees this as an under game all the way.

Wright State Team Total Under 63.5

Wright State has to attack the rim. They don’t shoot a lot of threes. Not going to happen against UVA. Duck thinks the Raiders are really going to struggle to find a way to score the ball here.

Cal Baptist-Kansas Under 138

Kansas has to travel all the way across the country, and Cal Baptist has a guy in DominiqueDaniels Jr. who can score 40 at any time. That gives the game upset potential, but Duck still likes the under here because he believes Cal Baptist is going to trim down the possessions and defend well without fouling.

Simon Says and Brass Balls Bet of the Week

For Simon Says, Simon took Duck’s info and put it to good use:

Simon Says: Wisconsin -9.5

Simon loves betting Big Ten schools. They’re well coached, and this Wisconsin team is really good. If they have their A-plus game, they could easily win this game by 20.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: TCU ML (+120)

We wanted to give people something to watch early, and Duck backed it. TCU moneyline at +120 against Ohio State.

TCU is a very strong team, got very hot down the stretch in Big 12 play, accumulated some really good wins, and had a real chance late to defeat Kansas in the conference tournament.

Sharp or Square: 2026 March Madness Picks Recap

Duck’s Best Bets:

• SMU -6.5 vs. Miami (Ohio)
• Wisconsin Team Total over 87.5
• Duke-Siena Under 136.5
• Idaho-Houston Under 136.5
• Long Island-Arizona Under 152
• Wright State Team Total Under 63.5
• Cal Baptist-Kansas Under 138
• Exotic: Final Four Seeds Total Under 9.5
• Exotic: WCC teams Total Wins Over 3.5

Simon Says:

• Wisconsin -9.5

Brass Balls Bet of the Week:

• TCU ML (+120)