Red Sox vs. Yankees Picks, Predictions & Odds for AL Wild Card Game 1

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees renew one of baseball‘s best rivalries on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium, where Game 1 of their best-of-three American League Wild Card Series is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.

Boston arrives to the postseason following one of the biggest in-season turnarounds in recent memory. The Red Sox were just 32-46 in late June before a four-game sweep of the Yankees at Fenway Park helped change the direction of their season. They followed that series with a 15-game winning streak in July, eventually climbing all the way back to finish 87-75 and secure the No. 5 seed in the American League.

New York finished 93-68 to claim the AL’s top Wild Card spot, with its scheduled 162nd game canceled because of rain. The Yankees won the regular season series against Boston 7-6, including four of six meetings at Yankee Stadium, but the head-to-head matchup swung dramatically throughout the year. New York won four of the first five before Boston swept four straight at Fenway, and the Yankees answered by taking three of four in the Bronx when the teams last met in August.

The rivalry also carries over directly from last October. Boston won Game 1 of the 2025 Wild Card Series behind Garrett Crochet, but New York rallied to take the next two games and advance. Cam Schlittler closed out that series with eight scoreless innings and 12 strikeouts in the deciding Game 3.

Both clubs also enter this year’s matchup with important roster developments ahead of Game 1. Three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge has been left off New York’s Wild Card roster as he continues to recover from a right calf strain, taking the Yankees’ biggest bat out of the lineup for the opening round. Giancarlo Stanton did, however, make the roster and gives New York another right-handed bat to work with after the veteran sat out most of the year.

Boston, meanwhile, has added Crochet to its postseason pitching staff after the left-hander missed nearly the entire regular season with a shoulder injury. He’s expected to work out of the bullpen rather than return immediately to the rotation.

Game 1 will be headlined by a pair of young starters who have emerged as two of the best pitchers in the American League. Schlittler put together a dominant sophomore season, finishing 14-6 with an AL-best 1.95 ERA and putting himself in position to win his first Cy Young Award.

Boston will counter with Payton Tolle, who built on his late-season introduction to the majors in 2025 by establishing himself as one of baseball’s top young arms this year. The 23-year-old finished 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA and 171 strikeouts, earning the start for Boston in Game 1.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds Today

The Yankees are home favorites at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook for Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series:

• Moneyline: Red Sox (+120), Yankees (-140)
• Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-200), Yankees -1.5 (+165)
• Total: Over 6.5 (+100), Under 6.5 (-120)

Best Bet for Red Sox vs. Yankees

Before first pitch, check out Hard Rock Bet’s Stats Hub for player streaks, trends and matchup insights throughout the MLB postseason. For Game 1, Boston is worth a look at plus money:

Red Sox Moneyline (+120): The biggest factor is Tolle’s track record against this lineup. The rookie faced New York twice during the regular season and went 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA, allowing only four hits and one earned run over 13 innings. He struck out 18 against just three walks, including seven scoreless innings in one start and 11 strikeouts over six innings in the other.

That gives Boston a starter who has already shown he can navigate this matchup, and he’ll now face a Yankees lineup without Judge. New York still has plenty of power with Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger and Stanton available, but removing Judge from the middle of the order changes the challenge significantly.

Boston has also shown it can win at Yankee Stadium when the stakes are highest. The Yankees did take last year’s Wild Card Series, but the Red Sox had eliminated New York in their previous two postseason meetings in 2018 and 2021. Boston also took Game 1 in the Bronx last October before New York came back to win the series.

Schlittler makes this anything but an easy matchup, especially after the season he put together and what he did to Boston in last year’s elimination game. But with Tolle’s success against New York, Judge unavailable and plus money attached to the Red Sox, Boston is worth backing to once again take the opener.

• Best Bet: Red Sox Moneyline (+120)

Red Sox vs. Yankees Betting Splits

Hard Rock Bet players have heavily favored New York on the moneyline:

• The Yankees have drawn 77.8% of the moneyline tickets and 77.4% of the handle.
• Yankees -1.5 has received 60.3% of the run line bets and 77.6% of the money wagered.
• Over 6.5 accounts for 72.3% of the total tickets, while Under 6.5 has attracted 62% of the handle.

Top 5 Most-Bet Player Props

Bellinger and Rice account for four of the five most-bet player props ahead of Game 1:

1. Cody Bellinger – Over 0.5 Hits
2. Ben Rice – Over 0.5 Hits
3. Ben Rice – Over 0.5 Home Runs
4. Cody Bellinger – Over 1.5 RBIs
5. Ceddanne Rafaela – Over 0.5 Hits

Red Sox vs. Yankees Game Info

• 📍 Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
• 📅 Date: Tuesday, September 29
• ⏰ First Pitch: 8:00 PM ET
• 📺 TV: NBC, Peacock
• ⚾ Probable Pitchers:
  • Red Sox: Payton Tolle (9-6, 3.03 ERA)
  • Yankees: Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA)

More Ways to Bet

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