Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Splits, Picks & Predictions for Monday, May 4

Monday’s MLB slate includes the series finale of a four-game set between NL East foes, the Philadelphia Phillies (14-20) and the Miami Marlins (16-18). The Phillies enter with a chance to win the series 3-1 after a 7-2 victory Sunday behind 6.1 strong innings from former Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo.

The NL East hasn’t played out as expected so far this season. The Phillies and New York Mets were widely viewed as legitimate World Series contenders entering the year, but both have underperformed and sit among the worst teams in baseball by record, with each enduring double-digit losing streaks.

The Marlins, meanwhile, entered the season as a young and inexperienced team but come into Monday in second place in the division. They also won a three-game series against the defending back-to-back World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers prior to this set with Philadelphia.

Veteran right-hander Aaron Nola will take the mound for the Phillies in Monday night’s finale, while Janson Junk, who owns a 2.86 ERA at home this season, will look to help Miami salvage a split before welcoming the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday in Florida.

Phillies vs. Marlins Game Info

• 📍 Where: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
• 📅 Date: Monday, May 4
• ⏰ First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET
• 📺💻 TV/Streaming: MLB.TV
• ⚾ Probable Pitchers:
  • Phillies: Aaron Nola
  • Marlins: Janson Junk

Phillies vs. Marlins Current Odds

Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook lists Monday night’s matchup as essentially even for the series finale:

• Moneyline: Phillies -110, Marlins -110
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+145), Marlins +1.5 (-175)
• Total (Runs): Over 8.5 (-110), Under 8.5 (-110)

Although the Phillies have had a slow start, it’s worth noting they’ve won five of their last six games since firing former manager Rob Thomson.

Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Splits

Here’s how the action is trending at Hard Rock Bet leading up to first pitch:

• The moneyline is split by ticket count at 50% for both sides, but the Phillies are dominating the handle at 73%.
• The Marlins are drawing the majority of run line bets at 62.9%, but the larger wagers favor the Phillies, who account for 54.8% of the handle.
• The Over is seeing slightly more action, with 57.1% of bets and 50.3% of the handle, though overall action is fairly balanced.

Phillies vs. Marlins Picks & Predictions for May 4

With the Phillies looking to secure the series on the road and the Marlins aiming to earn a split, here are some notable trends from the Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub:

Phillies’ 10-Game Run Line Trend

The Phillies picked up a 7-2 win Sunday, but a recent trend could give players pause. Philadelphia has failed to cover the run line in each of its last 10 games following a win.

The Phillies are listed at -1.5 on the run line Monday night as they look to snap that trend, while the Marlins will look to make it 11 straight for them.

• Phillies vs. Marlins Game Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-175)

Liam Hicks’ Home Run Odds

Marlins catcher Liam Hicks has already hit seven home runs in 2026, surpassing his total from 119 games last season. The 26-year-old has gone deep twice in his last five games and faces a pitcher in Aaron Nola who can be prone to allowing home runs.

• Anytime Home Run Pick: Liam Hicks (+850)

Otto López’s Hit Streak

Otto López has been swinging a hot bat this season. The Marlins’ shortstop has recorded at least one single in each of his last five games.

López is among the league leaders in batting average and enters Monday tied for the MLB lead in hits (45). His odds to record Over 0.5 singles are set at -155 against Nola and the Phillies.

• Phillies-Marlins Player Prop Pick: Otto López Over 0.5 singles (-155)

More ways to bet

One swing can cash your ticket, but until then, Florida players can keep things interesting with Real Money Games powered by Past Motor Racing, only on Hard Rock Bet. It’s another way to stay engaged between plate appearances.