NRFI Best Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Predictions & Picks for July 21

Welcome back! We’re here to dive into some NRFI and YRFI picks for July 21 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s dig into three first-inning plays I’m backing on today’s MLB slate.

The Best NRFI/YRFI Bets for Tuesday, July 21

• YRFI: Giants at Royals –120 (Kauffman Stadium – 7:40 p.m. ET)

• NRFI: Reds at Mariners –130 (T-Mobile Park – 9:40 p.m. ET)

• YRFI: Dodgers at Phillies –110 (Citizens Bank Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)

YRFI Best Bet: Giants at Royals

• YRFI Pick Today: Giants @ Royals YES Run First Inning -120

We’ll start with the Giants at Royals at 7:40 p.m. ET, and I’m rolling with a YRFI at –120 on Hard Rock Bet. Tyler Mahle takes the bump for San Francisco against Luinder Avila of Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium.

The Giants are always a fascinating team to track due to their home stadium.

Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball, especially with the suppressed wind at night, and Mahle’s home/road splits couldn’t be more night and day (no pun intended).

At Oracle, he owns a 3.00 ERA with opponents hitting just .210 across 45 innings. On the road, he’s an atrocious 0-5 with an 8.45 ERA, having allowed 31 earned runs in 33 innings. Even more relevant here: across 15 first-inning appearances this season, Mahle has surrendered 10 earned runs and a whopping 23 hits.

That alone warrants a dabble on this first-inning prop, but it gets better. Avila carries a 5.08 ERA that checks out with a 4.87 expected ERA. He’s done a decent job suppressing hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground, but leaving Oracle Park doesn’t just hurt Giants pitching — it helps their hitters too.

Neither of these pitchers is very good, and with temperatures around 90 degrees at Kauffman, that ball should be ripping. Give me the YRFI.

NRFI Pick: Reds at Mariners

• NRFI Pick: Reds @ Mariners NO Run First Inning -130

Next, we’ll go with a NRFI at –130 as the Reds visit the Mariners at 9:40 p.m. ET. Chase Burns squares off against veteran Luis Castillo at T-Mobile Park, and this is such a ballpark downgrade for Reds bats that I’m interested in fading their offense a bit.

Castillo might be a shell of his former self, and quite frankly he’s been pretty bad both home and away this season, which is probably why the price is a bit generous, all things considered.

But here’s the angle: the Reds have the sixth-best park factor for offense, according to Baseball Savant, while Seattle ranks dead last at 29th. That’s a massive environment swing.

The Mariners have been very good offensively at home against righties, but Chase Burns is an absolute monster — arguably one of the three or four best pitchers in baseball right now.

On top of that, Castillo hasn’t allowed a first-inning run at home across his last five appearances, so I’m willing to ride the wave while Burns takes care of business on the other side.

YRFI Pick: Dodgers at Phillies

• YRFI Best Bet: Dodgers @ Phillies YES Run First Inning -110

Finally, we’ll head to Citizens Bank Park for the Phillies vs. Dodgers at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Zack Wheeler is on the mound for Philadelphia and has been unbelievable this season, pitching with a real chip on his shoulder after an All-Star snub. He owns a 2.13 ERA, is 10-1 overall, and has given up just two earned runs across his 15 first-inning appearances. Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it?

So why the YRFI? On the flip side, we have Justin Wrobleski, an underwhelming arm who doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff. And the Phillies’ offense is rolling — Trea Turner is absolutely on fire at the top of the order, with the usual gauntlet of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber behind him.

Getting –110 on a game with two offenses this good tells you exactly how much respect the oddsmakers have for Wheeler, and they’re right to give it to him. But that’s also what creates the value.

Now, I’m not a big batter-vs-pitcher guy — I like BVP as a pot-sweetener, not a foundation. But if I already like a matchup and the splits, pitcher types, and conditions line up, some notable BVP gets me over the top.

There’s some extensive history here for the Dodgers. Freddie Freeman has a monster track record against Wheeler: 22 hits in 57 at-bats (.386) with 15 walks and three home runs. And in a much smaller sample that may mean nothing, Shohei Ohtani is 4-for-6 with a home run against him.

I think the Phillies can seriously get to Wrobleski with how hot Turner has been, and if there’s any reason to believe even Wheeler could have some damage done against him, this is a great number.

We’re talking about some of the best hitters in baseball getting cuts on both sides of the dish in an absolute scorcher in South Philadelphia. At –110, let’s roll with the over.

Good luck Tuesday, and stay cool!